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Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread


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41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just think the one eyed pig is going to be a pain in our sides for large portions of the winter. And maybe a slightly stronger than normal SE ridge pushing zone north. And I could see a drier than normal winter..though that I'm not as confident in

Thats fine. I could see a warm stretch for 3-4 weeks myself with AK troughing but I dont see 11/12 imo. The pig is there for about a week then all signs point to ridging to close out the month. if it comes back for majority of Nov then I will salute you and hop on the rat mobile. 

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50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just think the one eyed pig is going to be a pain in our sides for large portions of the winter. And maybe a slightly stronger than normal SE ridge pushing zone north. And I could see a drier than normal winter..though that I'm not as confident in

Look at mid November.  If the guidance breaking down the pig holds, the question will be how quickly it returns.  If it breaks down by 11/5 and shows signs of returning a week or 2 later, we may be in trouble.  If the change to remove the vortex (displaced west) strengthens beyond current guidance, we may be in good shape.  The next 6 weeks tell the tale.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Look at mid November.  If the guidance breaking down the pig holds, the question will be how quickly it returns.  If it breaks down by 11/5 and shows signs of returning a week or 2 later, we may be in trouble.  If the change to remove the vortex (displaced west) strengthens beyond current guidance, we may be in good shape.  The next 6 weeks tell the tale.

No arguments there . NoV is very impossible in determining how our winter goes 

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6 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

How accurate is that model?

https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2013/13933-seasonal-decadal-prediction-arctic-oscillation.pdf

And a study which might be interesting.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271737956_Impacts_of_two_types_of_La_Nina_on_the_NAO_during_boreal_winter

There seems to be two types of La Nina with different implications for our weather. We - the winter lovers- need an Eastern Pacific La Nina. E.g. 2006-1996-1985.

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8 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I'm waiting to talk to a writer before I sign the agreement with a non traditional publisher, but my dad wants me to talk to a writer before I do in case he has other agents or publisher information.

what does this have to do with winter 2017-2018??

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