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Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread


eyewall

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Hopefully that model is wrong....that would be a bad pattern for us...even NNE.

 

Though I'll add that maybe late in the winter we'd do pretty well. Like Nick said, it kind of looks weird that the pattern looks better later in winter during a La Nina.

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23 hours ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, Most of these fall in the 7-10:1 ratio range that i have seen when i have taken core samples, Morerso then the 12:1 type stuff or higher especially here in the coastal plain.

Did better for 07-08 in the foothills (which should be no surprise for ratios) - our 142.3" had an average 10.9-to-1 ratio.  The 21 events 3"+ were 11:1, two late season storms with P-type issues each brought 2.0" of 5:1 glop, and 21 "tinies" (0.1" to 1.8") dropped 11.2" of 13.8-to-1 powder.

That season had 7 events 7"+, 2 more 6"-6.9", and an even dozen 3.0" to 5.9".  Of the 21 three-plus, 8 came in Feb, 7 in Dec, 3 each Jan-Mar. 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully that model is wrong....that would be a bad pattern for us...even NNE.

 

Though I'll add that maybe late in the winter we'd do pretty well. Like Nick said, it kind of looks weird that the pattern looks better later in winter during a La Nina.

U can see the Nov Dec Jan 500mb anomalies aren't terrible displaced from Dec 2007...less ridging into the GOA and a more northerly displaced 50/50 low.  But that makes a huge difference sensibly obviously.  

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My agenda? Because I want a warm snowless winter. It’s ok to not call for snow. It hurts to do it considering I’m the biggest winter lover here.. but it’s better to be realistic 

I think it's obvious most think you are doing the classic reverse psych formula. If it stinks, you were right on the forecast...if it's a good winter, you don't care if you were wrong because you bask in the delight of the heavy snows.

 

But maybe you truly believe this one is gonna be terrible. There's an argument to be made either way...though I don't see anything obviously negative yet at our latitude. Maybe things will start to look worse as we go through the end of this month into November.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I think it's obvious most think you are doing the classic reverse psych formula. If it stinks, you were right on the forecast...if it's a good winter, you don't care if you were wrong because you bask in the delight of the heavy snows.

 

But maybe you truly believe this one is gonna be terrible. There's an argument to be made either way...though I don't see anything obviously negative yet at our latitude. Maybe things will start to look worse as we go through the end of this month into November.

I’m honestly pessimistic. I’ve laid out why . I hope I’m completely off 

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m honestly pessimistic. I’ve laid out why . I hope I’m completely off 

If December has a garbage pattern, we're probably in real trouble, so it probably won't take long to find out. Very few La Ninas had a second half comeback after a bad start....the huge exception seems to be 1955-1956....but the pattern in December actually wasn't bad, we just got pretty unlucky with almost no snow. It was still decently cold...just couldn't get anything going despite the good blocking.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My agenda? Because I want a warm snowless winter. It’s ok to not call for snow. It hurts to do it considering I’m the biggest winter lover here.. but it’s better to be realistic 

Nah, be objective thats all. You post anything that supports ratter but neglect the next map that shows the contrary. Its all good, just busting. We know youll win either way. 

Most have said there are decent signs ahead so Ill trust that until there are glaring signs that say otherwise.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How do you think this weak to moderate nina differs from the ones that didn't kill us with the Pac jet?

Not trying to be argumentative...just picking your brain.

I just think the one eyed pig is going to be a pain in our sides for large portions of the winter. And maybe a slightly stronger than normal SE ridge pushing zone north. And I could see a drier than normal winter..though that I'm not as confident in

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48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just think the one eyed pig is going to be a pain in our sides for large portions of the winter. And maybe a slightly stronger than normal SE ridge pushing zone north. And I could see a drier than normal winter..though that I'm not as confident in

Ok.

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