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Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread


eyewall

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11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No surprise, Looks like 9 would have verified, We ended up with 30 events that winter here in LEW.

I'm sure no one county/zone got into all those watches, but if they did hitting every watch at the minimum would be 90".

It's supposed to be a 50% confidence product, but you would like to hit more than you don't, say 75%. That's still a nearly 70" floor. Not bad.

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I'm sure no one county/zone got into all those watches, but if they did hitting every watch at the minimum would be 90".

It's supposed to be a 50% confidence product, but you would like to hit more than you don't, say 75%. That's still a nearly 70" floor. Not bad.



That would place here at avg and the WFO has to be close to that as well, Would take that in any season.
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Those -SST anomalies in the east are sill important. If you have water that isn't cold relative to normal, you could allow for MJO propagation eastward from the IO and maritime continent. If I saw cold water pretty far west, that tells me forcing maybe farther west which increases chances of larger AK Troughing. If anything, I'm looking harder to find the negatives vs the positives...at least for here in New England. Other than the 11-15 day ensemble ( I say that jokingly), is there anything pointing to a dud snowfall wise? Temps are more difficult so I'm not even going to entertain that. Everyone cares about snow, and I dunno...maybe I'm a weenie...but I don't see a huge caution flag....and lord knows I like my caution flags. 

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Those -SST anomalies in the east are sill important. If you have water that isn't cold relative to normal, you could allow for MJO propagation eastward from the IO and maritime continent. If I saw cold water pretty far west, that tells me forcing maybe farther west which increases chances of larger AK Troughing. If anything, I'm looking harder to find the negatives vs the positives...at least for here in New England. Other than the 11-15 day ensemble ( I say that jokingly), is there anything pointing to a dud snowfall wise? Temps are more difficult so I'm not even going to entertain that. Everyone cares about snow, and I dunno...maybe I'm a weenie...but I don't see a huge caution flag....and lord knows I like my caution flags. 

True story, this is an image of you waving James off of landing on the January blizzard. 

die23.jpg

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54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Those -SST anomalies in the east are sill important. If you have water that isn't cold relative to normal, you could allow for MJO propagation eastward from the IO and maritime continent. If I saw cold water pretty far west, that tells me forcing maybe farther west which increases chances of larger AK Troughing. If anything, I'm looking harder to find the negatives vs the positives...at least for here in New England. Other than the 11-15 day ensemble ( I say that jokingly), is there anything pointing to a dud snowfall wise? Temps are more difficult so I'm not even going to entertain that. Everyone cares about snow, and I dunno...maybe I'm a weenie...but I don't see a huge caution flag....and lord knows I like my caution flags. 

Yeah it should be noted that 2007-2008 was slightly above normal temps for us (and NNE) despite big snowfall. December was cold but Jan/Feb were not. So sometimes it isn't all about temps even though they are still important. South of our latitude they become more and more dominant as the predictor of snowfall. 

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40 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s pretty much everyone vs a DIT/Timmy combo.

I don't think anyone, but DIT said ratter. I'm acknowledging all possibilities as is normally the case with winter.  The SE ridge certainly could flex and screw us all. But as of now...I am trying to find glaring reasons why winter will suck...and I don't see anything glaring at the moment. Whether or not some so called snow boundary will be over HFD OR TTN is absolutely impossible to answer.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't think anyone, but DIT said ratter. I'm acknowledging all possibilities as is normally the case with winter.  The SE ridge certainly could flex and screw us all. But as of now...I am trying to find glaring reasons why winter will suck...and I don't see anything glaring at the moment. Whether or not some so called snow boundary will be over HFD OR TTN is absolutely impossible to answer.

Yeah....There's already an inherent snow gradient built into climo anyway during La Niña because of the lack of a southern stream and propensity for SE ridge....but whether it's a prolific boundary between haves and have nots seems to depend on avoiding the death vortex in Alaska. If it's there, we all suck like 2011/2012. If it isn't, then someone probably cleans up while not too far south gets porked. 

We want Canada to have some cold. That's a key. The death vortex typically just furnaces the entire continent south of a Yukon-Baffin island line. 

And as you said, we don't know if the gradient sets up over the pike or over NJ yet. 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah....There's already an inherent snow gradient built into climo anyway during La Niña because of the lack of a southern stream and propensity for SE ridge....but whether it's a prolific boundary between haves and have nots seems to depend on avoiding the death vortex in Alaska. If it's there, we all suck like 2011/2012. If it isn't, then someone probably cleans up while not too far south gets porked. 

We want Canada to have some cold. That's a key. The death vortex typically just furnaces the entire continent south of a Yukon-Baffin island line. 

And as you said, we don't know if the gradient sets up over the pike or over NJ yet. 

I'll take my 6" while Kevin's Dodge Ram gets sandblasted down to the frame by sleet.

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah....There's already an inherent snow gradient built into climo anyway during La Niña because of the lack of a southern stream and propensity for SE ridge....but whether it's a prolific boundary between haves and have nots seems to depend on avoiding the death vortex in Alaska. If it's there, we all suck like 2011/2012. If it isn't, then someone probably cleans up while not too far south gets porked. 

We want Canada to have some cold. That's a key. The death vortex typically just furnaces the entire continent south of a Yukon-Baffin island line. 

And as you said, we don't know if the gradient sets up over the pike or over NJ yet. 

I don't like to be a debbie downer but isn't the 10-15 day Euro usually always right?. 

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3 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

I don't like to be a debbie downer but isn't the 10-15 day Euro usually always right?. 

What are you trying to say by this? The Euro ensemble in the 10-15 has the GOA vortex breaking down and troughing beginning to result in the middle US.

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1 minute ago, leo2000 said:

But isn't it hard to break down a GOA Vortex?. They usually have a lot of staying power. 

No different than any other H5 pattern. I think the fear of some sort of vortex there causes some false thinking.

 

And no, the 11-15 day euro ensemble isn't always correct. I can recall many times where it showed some sort of large scale hemispheric pattern...only to be completely wrong.

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