Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

[ORH_wxman]

Go big or go home:

 

 

[OceanStWx]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Go big or go home:

Over 127" at GYX that season, only surpassed by 95-96 (130.6") and 07-08 (134.0")

Also, sneaky 123.9" last season. 

[WxBlue]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

07-08 was huge in Dover NH. Not sure if you're looking at a local coop that gave you the impression of "average", but be very careful..some of them are unusable for snowfall. 

Ooooo I like the sound of this... how much did Dover get that winter? 

[moneypitmike]

16 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'll add the the pike region in the past has frequently been a dividing line in overrunning events. Esp during that 2007-2008 season, but it's happened in some other events too since then...the terrain over western and central MA and the high pressure orientation (frequently N of Maine funneling the arctic air down the coast into E MA) in these events make the pike region kind of the battle ground for the cold air vs the WAA to the southwest, and you'll see the sleet/snow line begin to meet a lot of resistance in that zone.

 

In the words of The Boss, "Down here it's just winners and losers and don't get caught on the wrong side of that line."

 

Also, be mindful of Route 2.

 

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Go big or go home:

 

 

 

She's a beaut, Clark!  I loved that one.

[ORH_wxman]

7 hours ago, WxBlue said:

Ooooo I like the sound of this... how much did Dover get that winter? 

[CoastalWx]

I finally looked at the monthly H5 breakdown on the euro seasonal. While Feb and Mar may play with fire as verbatim...Dec and Jan looked pretty good..esp December. Looks like typical Nina only with maybe less of a typical -PNA? I didn't see a -NAO really, but overall heights near AK to the N Pole were above normal. 

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[LoveSN+]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

The ensembles on the 11-15 day have been trending away from the big GOA vortex. More troughing in the central and eastern parts of CONUS, GEFS especially.

[CoastalWx]

Why would an ensemble 11-15 day mean forecast in October suggest a warm or cold winter? Unless he's taking a shot at Bastardi. 

[J Paul Gordon]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

What a great illustration of the basic zones here in SNE ! Snowfall amounts and gradients are much more extreme than most years, but the general topography and orthographic patterns are certainly realistic.

[J Paul Gordon]

50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Absolutely NO WINTER south of Pike. Beautiful north of it. Just like that map ORH posted, but gradients even more extreme. 14.5" Tolland; 116" Worcester. It will be amazing.

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I finally looked at the monthly H5 breakdown on the euro seasonal. While Feb and Mar may play with fire as verbatim...Dec and Jan looked pretty good..esp December. Looks like typical Nina only with maybe less of a typical -PNA? I didn't see a -NAO really, but overall heights near AK to the N Pole were above normal. 

Yeah it doesn't look like a -PNA until February.

 

December looks really cold on that H5 map...esp for northern tier. Probably a lot of Scooter sprawling prairie highs.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

What are you saying though? cuz his tweet makes no sense. 

“in some fashion they will find a way to say this pattern suggests a warm winter coming for EC”

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

I don't think he is implying anything about the coming winter,  but rather mocking those who blindly go cold in the east.

[WxBlue]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Almost 100"? Whew...

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think he is implying anything about the coming winter,  but rather mocking those who blindly go cold in the east.

Yeah I kind of took it as that...GEFS show a coldish pattern in late October so some will think that is "the winter pattern setting up".

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Almost 100"? Whew...

A lot of SWFE events that winter contributed to those totals.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I kind of took it as that...GEFS show a coldish pattern in late October so some will think that is "the winter pattern setting up".

I hope we have a cool Halloween just to feel festive.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A lot of SWFE events that winter contributed to those totals.

That is the recipe for a good snowstorm here...really until mid January.

Before that is dicey due to marine influences.

[WxBlue]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A lot of SWFE events that winter contributed to those totals.

Not familiar with the acronym. What's the full definition of SWFE? Southwest flow event?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the recipe for a real good snowstorm here...really until mid January.

Before that is dicey due to marine influences.

Yeah, Being further south, Your area is more prone to that, We rocked that season right out of the gate here in December, I would welcome that scenario again .

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WxBlue said:

Not familiar with the acronym. What's the full definition of SWFE? Southwest flow event?

Yes.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the recipe for a real good snowstorm here...really until mid January.

Before that is dicey due to marine influences.

We really need to rack up the SWFEs in December to bulk up the pack before the inevitable Grinch storm.

[dryslot]

Just now, WxBlue said:

Not familiar with the acronym. What's the full definition of SWFE? Southwest flow event?

Yes, Most of these systems originate in the SW and move NE and off the NE coast, If your on the northern side of the front, They can produce moderate snows with the warmer air riding over the top of the cold air at the surface.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Yeah, Being further south, Your area is more prone to that, We rocked that season right out of the gate here in December, I would welcome that scenario again .

I don't see why we can't displace things 30-50mi south this season, either.

ENSO is weaker, and I think that is manifesting itself in the PDO, as some others have pointed out.

The se ridging may be a hair less assertive.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see why we can't displace things 30-50mi south this season, either.

ENSO is weaker, and I think that is manifesting itself in the PDO, as some others have pointed out.

The se ridging may be a hair less assertive.

I agree, Its not looking like its going to flex its muscle over the long haul, I really am optimistic about this winter, Of course no one can foresee some bad luck that can and will happen with some of these systems over the entire winter, Just want to win more then you lose as long as its active, It should be fun.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, Most of these systems originate in the SW and move NE and off the NE coast, If your on the northern side of the front, They can produce moderate snows with the warmer air riding over the top of the cold air at the surface.

The synoptic mechanics of it are that the low redevelops into a triple point just near the south coast from the surface up, due to the immense confluence to the northeast (high)....thus the capacity of the high to negate the vestigial WAA from the parent low is attenuated with height...ie the profile is slanted. The surface remains colder, while the warmth overtakes the mid and upper levels, hence the sleet...but once sufficient latitude is achieved, the entire column succumbs to the colder redevelopment.

The latter point will occur at a lower latitude relative to that this season, this year imho.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The mechanics of it is that the low redevelops into a triple point just near the south coast, from the surface up....thus the capacity of the high to negate the WAA from the parent low is attenuated with height...ie the profile is slanted. The surface remains colder, while the warmth overtakes the mid and upper levels, hence the sleet...but once sufficient latitude is achieved, the entire column succumbs to the colder redevelopment.

A good high to the north also enhances the frontogenesis...it's what helps a mundane transition event (or mundane overrunning event if you stay all snow) turn into a big front end thump with several hours of heavy snow.

[CoastalWx]

That ridging near AK and overall higher heights near the N Pole with troughing near Davis Straits is how I envision it. I'm still not sold on true blocking..but I'll take a decent Pacific. Teleconnects to a SE ridge. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The mechanics of it is that the low redevelops into a triple point just near the south coast, from the surface up....thus the capacity of the high to negate the WAA from the parent low is attenuated with height...ie the profile is slanted. The surface remains colder, while the warmth overtakes the mid and upper levels, hence the sleet...but once sufficient latitude is achieved, the entire column succumbs to the colder redevelopment.

In some instances, There is really no primary low and its more of a series of weak waves of LP moving along the front with a high to the north to keep the colder air in the mid levels and the surface.