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Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread


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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't forget to give an 8 day window of when there may be a snowstorm somewhere east of the MS river...and then consider it a win if it occurs 3 days before or after. I love those ones. 

I'm guessing there will be a snow event between Minneapolis and Boston between January 25th and February 5th.

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On ‎10‎/‎3‎/‎2017 at 4:54 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 12, 2011 you were obsessing over the temp rise...you were convinced it was a 12/30/00 repeat...we had to keep reassuring you that it you would eventually stabilize near 31-32F once the storm got cranking...think you ended up with a 16" paste bomb. Quite picturesque that storm was in Boston...it was 20"+ powder to the west, but probably the same impact.

I'd rather 16" of paste than a 20" powder keg.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I answered and was ignored. I’ll answer again 

Moderate Nina

Strong SE ridge

Propensity for strong PAC Jet flooding NA with mild air 

That doesn't answer anything.

This la nina is weaker than that one, and it was still a decent winter.

Weak-mod la ninas are actually correlated to negative EPOs, if you had bothered to research anything.

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How about the two cycles of GFS operational back-to-back with the whole-scale regime change in the deeper range - 

Seems that model does this every year at some point or another between circa Sept 10 and Novie 4, where it locks the earth and sprays LES downwind of the Lakes ... what happens?  A harmless 18 hour chilly air mass that feels surprisingly nice in the tepid October sun. It's almost like the model sees the extended through a magnifying glass at times. It does it in mid spring too - a huge sprawling ridge anomaly morphs steadily down to a 12 hour dirty warm sector.    

Maybe this year will be different.  I met buddy and I were discussing how long it's been since we've had a front-end loaded winter.  Obviously anything "winter" like in mid October isn't front-end anything - just a wackadoo anomaly.  ...probably true for the first half of November, too. 

But, contrary to the contrarian voice of October warm air malcontent, ...I do think that "SOME"times patterns that show a willingness to change cold (warm) respectively in October, can "hint" at a winter tendency.  Over the years though, it's become a heavy handed opinion that October/November biases don't mean anything about the winter. The reason for that is bullschit - because the statement is clearly forged in the fires of a blazing October blacksmith's panic.   

I just the older I get the more it seems there is something to that.  Now, if we are going to split the month in half, with one half warm and other half diametrically the other way ... still, away around that is to look at a whole autumn, end to end.  To that, we had a fall like cool snap in here recently... so we warm no and again through mid month - if thereafter it crashes, I think we're safe as winter obsessing weirdos. 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

How about the two cycles of GFS operational back-to-back with the whole-scale regime change in the deeper range - 

Seems that model does this every year at some point or another between circa Sept 10 and Novie 4, where it locks the earth and sprays LES downwind of the Lakes ... what happens?  A harmless 18 hour chilly air mass that feels surprisingly nice in the tepid October sun. It's almost like the model sees the extended through a magnifying glass at times. It does it in mid spring too - a huge sprawling ridge anomaly morphs steadily down to a 12 hour dirty warm sector.    

Maybe this year will be different.  I met buddy and I were discussing how long it's been since we've had a front-end loaded winter.  Obviously anything "winter" like in mid October isn't front-end anything - just a wackadoo anomaly.  ...probably true for the first half of November, too. 

But, contrary to the contrarian voice of October warm air malcontent, ...I do think that "SOME"times patterns that show a willingness to change cold (warm) respectively in October, can "hint" at a winter tendency.  Over the years though, it's become a heavy handed opinion that October/November biases don't mean anything about the winter. The reason for that is bullschit - because the statement is clearly forged in the fires of a blazing October blacksmith's panic.   

I just the older I get the more it seems there is something to that.  Now, if we are going to split the month in half, with one half warm and other half diametrically the other way ... still, away around that is to look at a whole autumn, end to end.  To that, we had a fall like cool snap in here recently... so we warm no and again through mid month - if thereafter it crashes, I think we're safe as winter obsessing weirdos. 

 

 

 

Can I have Harv's autograph?

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who?

And why?

Man, stop smoking twitter and research stuff for yourself.

  I think there is some concern of stronger ridging in the east. It's not my opinion since I think seasonal forecasting is so difficult anyways (and I have no opinion either way at the moment.)  But, that's what some are worried about.  

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why?

I guess Nina climo (which usually favors ridging in the east) and concern for Bering Sea vortex. I mean maybe...but I also feel like there may be less propensity for a massive +AO too. Some of this cancels out. It's classic Kevin. Convince yourself it will suck, and be delighted if it does not. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I guess Nina climo (which usually favors ridging in the east) and concern for Bering Sea vortex. I mean maybe...but I also feel like there may be less propensity for a massive +AO too. Some of this cancels out. It's classic Kevin. Convince yourself it will suck, and be delighted if it does not. 

Ok....its fine to go warm, but its not fine to go BS and faux facts. (not you)

Sorry to interject with objective data, but I'm going to release the twitter tinkle for a bit...

Weak-Mod La Nina composite:

 

Weak-Mod La Nina.png

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33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we are going anecdotal, it has seemed to me that the general tenor of winter is usually the inverse of October. November is more indicative, and I think the stats actually bare that out.

Local long-term co-op supports those anecdotes, though the relationships are fairly weak, especially for Oct.  No surprise that Nov. would send a stronger signal, being a month closer to the action.

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Weak to moderate la nina winters can and have sucked....but I'm just not seeing any glaring evidence that this one will as of now.

As far as the eastern ridge, climo for modest cold ENSO, solar implications, as well as the stratosphere and Atlantic subsurface argue that the polar fields will not be terrible....but who knows.

I don't see any reason to worry any more than a normal season, though.

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