Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

[Typhoon Tip]

Not to condescend but there's too much hand-wringing and panicky 'hints' over cool ENSO  ...

That has about as much predictability on modulating ensuing winter pattern as I do getting laid  -

that should stop the room ..

seriously, it means about as much as that super Nino wound up meaning - not much. 

I would still count on the fact that the climate has altered so significantly that the unknowns are winning the races now. The super Nino got lost in a smoldering maelstrom to begin with .. and anything opposite on the dial has to (by logic suggested -) be pretty f'n potent to register an influence on an atmosphere that doesn't have gradients situated in order to do so. 

If anything, (for me) I'm more worried about the two winters, back -to-back, that featured an unusually steep gradient between the 60th and 30th parallels .. pretty much unilaterally girdling the entire planet.  Will that resume? ..I dunno.  I wonder if that occurs this winter.. I think that preponderance is causing too much geostrophic/balanced mid level geopotential wind velocities, which becomes a reduction factor for individual wave mechanics (short) to produce organized storms systems.  ....  That's like an intangible that is killing the football games about as badly as the Patriots Defensive idiocrasy wasted our time today.  If the hemispheric cold heights press south and we don't see 588 dm contours smartly decrease in tandem, guess what... vroom!

Not saying it wouldn't get stormy ..just that like last year and the year before...we clawed and scraped to averages, or a most totals that we'd become less accustomed to.  I remember plenty of average years in my life.. but never because the wind was always over a buck 10 at 500 mb like all the g-damn time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to condescend but there's too much hand-wringing and panicky 'hints' over cool ENSO  ...

That has about as much predictability on modulating ensuing winter pattern as I do getting laid  -

that should stop the room ..

seriously, it means about as much as that super Nino wound up meaning - not much. 

I would still count on the fact that the climate has altered so significantly that the unknowns are winning the races now. The super Nino got lost in a smoldering maelstrom to begin with .. and anything opposite on the dial has to (by logic suggested -) be pretty f'n potent to register an influence on an atmosphere that doesn't have gradients situated in order to do so. 

If anything, (for me) I'm more worried about the two winters, back -to-back, that featured an unusually steep gradient between the 60th and 30th parallels .. pretty much unilaterally girdling the entire planet.  Will that resume? ..I dunno.  I wonder if that occurs this winter.. I think that preponderance is causing too much geostrophic/balanced mid level geopotential wind velocities, which becomes a reduction factor for individual wave mechanics (short) to produce organized storms systems.  ....  That's like an intangible that is killing the football games about as badly as the Patriots Defensive idiocrasy wasted our time today.  If the hemispheric cold heights press south and we don't see 588 dm contours smartly decrease in tandem, guess what... vroom!

Not saying it wouldn't get stormy ..just that like last year and the year before...we clawed and scraped to averages, or a most totals that we'd become less accustomed to.  I remember plenty of average years in my life.. but never because the wind was always over a buck 10 at 500 mb like all the g-damn time.

If some of the fears regarding this cold ENSO event come to fruition, that could actually help matters as far a snow goes in our area....especially if he have a hostile arctic/atlantic again...the latter of which I'm doubting, anyway, but...

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to condescend but there's too much hand-wringing and panicky 'hints' over cool ENSO  ...

That has about as much predictability on modulating ensuing winter pattern as I do getting laid  -

that should stop the room ..

seriously, it means about as much as that super Nino wound up meaning - not much. 

I would still count on the fact that the climate has altered so significantly that the unknowns are winning the races now. The super Nino got lost in a smoldering maelstrom to begin with .. and anything opposite on the dial has to (by logic suggested -) be pretty f'n potent to register an influence on an atmosphere that doesn't have gradients situated in order to do so. 

If anything, (for me) I'm more worried about the two winters, back -to-back, that featured an unusually steep gradient between the 60th and 30th parallels .. pretty much unilaterally girdling the entire planet.  Will that resume? ..I dunno.  I wonder if that occurs this winter.. I think that preponderance is causing too much geostrophic/balanced mid level geopotential wind velocities, which becomes a reduction factor for individual wave mechanics (short) to produce organized storms systems.  ....  That's like an intangible that is killing the football games about as badly as the Patriots Defensive idiocrasy wasted our time today.  If the hemispheric cold heights press south and we don't see 588 dm contours smartly decrease in tandem, guess what... vroom!

Not saying it wouldn't get stormy ..just that like last year and the year before...we clawed and scraped to averages, or a most totals that we'd become less accustomed to.  I remember plenty of average years in my life.. but never because the wind was always over a buck 10 at 500 mb like all the g-damn time.

There are only 2 hands belonging to the same person wringing atm.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

There are only 2 hands belonging to the same person wringing atm.

Every year we have the same folks honking for great winter. It’s ok to admit things don’t look so hot 

[Sugarloaf1989]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every year we have the same folks honking for a poor winter. It’s ok to admit things look great.

 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every year we have the same folks honking for great winter. It’s ok to admit things don’t look so hot 

There is nothing so far to indicate that nor is there a particular signal for a big winter this year.  If your default is it's going to blow have at it.  Most likely you'll see some snow but latitude this year will be the biggest factor imho.

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

There is nothing so far to indicate that nor is there a particular signal for a big winter this year.  If your default is it's going to blow have at it.  Most likely you'll see some snow but latitude this year will be the biggest factor imho.

You're really hitting the 07-08/70-71 analogs.

I don't think the La Nina is going to be that strong. And didn't we have that +QBO in 07-08? I'd think the -QBO and weaker Nina with a Pacific that's not as super cold would promote a more favorable pattern for snowfall further south.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, nzucker said:

You're really hitting the 07-08/70-71 analogs.

I don't think the La Nina is going to be that strong. And didn't we have that +QBO in 07-08? I'd think the -QBO and weaker Nina with a Pacific that's not as super cold would promote a more favorable pattern for snowfall further south.

1995-96 is my second choice actually.

[dmillz25]

14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I always say the same thing. Probably won't have that, but boy...that was a great winter here locally. That was a top 10 here snowfall wise...very sneaky good winter.

Was in Boston for that winter. That was one of the best winters I've experienced. Don't remember 95-96 too much since I was 6 at the time. 09-10, 10-11, 14-15, 08-09 top 4 for me. What did Boston finish with in 08-09. I also remember it got down to -5 at Logan

[weathafella]

12 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Was in Boston for that winter. That was one of the best winters I've experienced. Don't remember 95-96 too much since I was 6 at the time. 09-10, 10-11, 14-15, 08-09 top 4 for me. What did Boston finish with in 08-09. I also remember it got down to -5 at Logan

BOS had close to 65 inches that winter and February and March absolutely rocked.

[weathafella]

I'm half kidding about 1995-96 but it's not outlandish.  2007-08 with an NAO would bring tons of snow pretty far south vs what happened that winter.

[dmillz25]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

BOS had close to 65 inches that winter and February and March absolutely rocked.

Yeah I remember. There was one that sticks out to me that year. Boston got about 12" and NYC got almost nothing that storm. I think it was in February not sure of the date though.

[nzucker]

2 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Yeah I remember. There was one that sticks out to me that year. Boston got about 12" and NYC got almost nothing that storm. I think it was in February not sure of the date though.

I had like 3" on 2/3/09. And I had 10" with the March 2nd storm. So NYC did have some snow in the second half of the winter. There was a smaller 1-2" event on March 20th, as well, though I had moved to Chile for the semester at that point.

[powderfreak]

9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every year we have the same folks honking for great winter. It’s ok to admit things don’t look so hot 

I honestly haven't read anyone honking for a great winter.  

I haven't read anyone honking for a poor winter either.  It's early October.  

Folks are just musing.  But every year you seem vastly concerned.  

[powderfreak]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

1995-96 is my second choice actually.

Ok never mind, maybe this is what Blizz/DIT is talking about ;).  

[powderfreak]

21 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I always say the same thing. Probably won't have that, but boy...that was a great winter here locally. That was a top 10 here snowfall wise...very sneaky good winter.

That winter gets over-shadowed by 07-08 and 10-11, but aside from those two winters it's probably the third best since 2001 in terms of a combo of snowfall, snowpack, and snow depth days up in the northern Greens too.

Definitely a sneaky good winter that doesn't get a lot of play.  I was out with a knee injury from skiing that winter so it's not as vivid in my mind (wasn't out there Day in and day out) but the stats looking back show a steadily above normal snowpack and JSpin's data supports it as #3 in the past 10-15 years for snowfall/snow depth days for the local mountain valleys.  

I actually think the ski resort had over 350" in the 3000ft zone, to go along with last winter and 07-08 as the only 3 years since 2000-01 to do that.  

Funny though how we rarely mention that winter because of 07-08 and 10-11.  

[Damage In Tolland]

9 hours ago, weathafella said:

There is nothing so far to indicate that nor is there a particular signal for a big winter this year.  If your default is it's going to blow have at it.  Most likely you'll see some snow but latitude this year will be the biggest factor imho.

Which I agree with. And imo that latitude is NNE

[weathafella]

53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Which I agree with. And imo that latitude is NNE

Agree-NNE will get more snow vs SNE.

[ORH_wxman]

8 hours ago, weathafella said:

BOS had close to 65 inches that winter and February and March absolutely rocked.

'08-'09?

Feb/Mar that winter was kind of a dud. Dec/Jan rocked though.

7 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Yeah I remember. There was one that sticks out to me that year. Boston got about 12" and NYC got almost nothing that storm. I think it was in February not sure of the date though.

Prob thinking of 2010-2011 winter...BOS had around a foot in the 2/2/11 storm while NYC had very little...the big Chicago groundhog day blizzard. Most of the snow actually fell from overrunning the day before out ahead of the main event.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

'08-'09?

Feb/Mar that winter was kind of a dud. Dec/Jan rocked though.

Prob thinking of 2010-2011 winter...BOS had around a foot in the 2/2/11 storm while NYC had very little...the big Chicago groundhog day blizzard. Most of the snow actually fell from overrunning the day before out ahead of the main event.

Yes!   For whatever reason, I group 2008-09 in my mind with 2012-13 hence my February/March comment.  

2008-09 was when we got tossed from the main room at JJ Foleys catcalling Barry Burbank's 1-3 (we verified 8 on 3/2-that was the event).

[dmillz25]

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

'08-'09?

Feb/Mar that winter was kind of a dud. Dec/Jan rocked though.

Prob thinking of 2010-2011 winter...BOS had around a foot in the 2/2/11 storm while NYC had very little...the big Chicago groundhog day blizzard. Most of the snow actually fell from overrunning the day before out ahead of the main event.

Nah it was 08-09 I was in Boston that winter. I believe it was the 2/3/09 storm? I remember being on the phone with my mom and her telling me that it was raining there while snowing in Boston 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Nah it was 08-09 I was in Boston that winter. I believe it was the 2/3/09 storm? I remember being on the phone with my mom and her telling me that it was raining there while snowing in Boston 

Def was not in February. BOS only had like 6 inches the entire month. It had to have been December 19, 2008...but NYC did get some snow in that (though if you were in the southern parts of the city, it went to rain pretty quickly, while northern side had decent snow). There were some January storms that hit BOS while NYC only got a little...but it wasn't really a rain vs snow thing...more like they were too far southwest to get the goods...MLK weekend 2009 was a good example.

Not sure, 2007-2008 had a lot more storms where BOS was getting hit hard and NYC was actually raining.

[nzucker]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def was not in February. BOS only had like 6 inches the entire month. It had to have been December 19, 2008...but NYC did get some snow in that (though if you were in the southern parts of the city, it went to rain pretty quickly, while northern side had decent snow). There were some January storms that hit BOS while NYC only got a little...but it wasn't really a rain vs snow thing...more like they were too far southwest to get the goods...MLK weekend 2009 was a good example.

Not sure, 2007-2008 had a lot more storms where BOS was getting hit hard and NYC was actually raining.

I had 8" on 12/19/08 in Dobbs Ferry (the original 12/19 storm)...much of the Bronx/Northern Manhattan saw 3-6", though it was a 2-4" slop fest for places like JFK.

The biggest storms for New England were the 12/19 and 12/21 double barrel events...Middlebury VT had nearly 2' in three days. Back near NYC, I got 8" from 12/19 and 2.5" from 12/21. 12/21 ended up with some sleet/freezing rain, wasn't a washout for NYC by any means however. 

1/28/09 was a big, high-end SW flow event..Middlebury had 13", the northern suburbs of NYC had 5-7", and the City proper had 2-4". It was a pretty cold storm though, not much rain involved.

I think you are confusing 08-09 with 10-11 or 12-13, winters when the second half was bigger for Boston than NYC. Neither place saw that much snow in February-March 2009..the one coastal on 3/2 basically ended winter as 70F weather set in by Mid-March. In 10-11, there was a decent storm up north on 2/21/11 (8" in Dobbs Ferry,check date), then there were a few events in March, including the one that smoked Burlington VT with 20" and tracked across Poughkeepsie...that was a big snowstorm for all interior New England. There were also events on 3/21 and 3/24 that winter...light accumulations near me, may have been heavier to the north. The most notable storms in 10-11, however, were in December and January: Boxing Day, 1/12 (30" amounts in parts of CT), and 1/27 (20" for NYC, less northeast). In 12-13, we had Nemo in mid-February (18" in Dobbs, more northeast), and then March had a major retrograding low/E flow event around 3/8 (got 7" in Dobbs Ferry, more in New England though, parts of MA had 20"+ from the long duration east flow)....then we had a SW flow event on 3/18 that dumped 5" for me and more in New England as well. December 2012 was one of the warmest on record until December 2015, and there wasn't much to speak of in January 2013 except for a 3-day arctic shot at month's end, which failed to cancel out the accumulated warmth from the continuation of the Dec '12 pattern...

I'm pretty sure you mean 12-13. That sounds like the closest match to your description. 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I had 8" on 12/19/08 in Dobbs Ferry (the original 12/19 storm)...much of the Bronx/Northern Manhattan saw 3-6", though it was a 2-4" slop fest for places like JFK.

The biggest storms for New England were the 12/19 and 12/21 double barrel events...Middlebury VT had nearly 2' in three days. Back near NYC, I got 8" from 12/19 and 2.5" from 12/21. 12/21 ended up with some sleet/freezing rain, wasn't a washout for NYC by any means however. 

1/28/09 was a big, high-end SW flow event..Middlebury had 13", the northern suburbs of NYC had 5-7", and the City proper had 2-4". It was a pretty cold storm though, not much rain involved.

I think you are confusing 08-09 with 10-11 or 12-13, winters when the second half was bigger for Boston than NYC. Neither place saw that much snow in February-March 2009..the one coastal on 3/2 basically ended winter as 70F weather set in by Mid-March. In 10-11, there was a decent storm up north on 2/21/11 (8" in Dobbs Ferry,check date), then there were a few events in March, including the one that smoked Burlington VT with 20" and tracked across Poughkeepsie...that was a big snowstorm for all interior New England. There were also events on 3/21 and 3/24 that winter...light accumulations near me, may have been heavier to the north. The most notable storms in 10-11, however, were in December and January: Boxing Day, 1/12 (30" amounts in parts of CT), and 1/27 (20" for NYC, less northeast). In 12-13, we had Nemo in mid-February (18" in Dobbs, more northeast), and then March had a major retrograding low/E flow event around 3/8 (got 7" in Dobbs Ferry, more in New England though, parts of MA had 20"+ from the long duration east flow)....then we had a SW flow event on 3/18 that dumped 5" for me and more in New England as well. December 2012 was one of the warmest on record until December 2015, and there wasn't much to speak of in January 2013 except for a 3-day arctic shot at month's end, which failed to cancel out the accumulated warmth from the continuation of the Dec '12 pattern...

I'm pretty sure you mean 12-13. That sounds like the closest match to your description. 

It's not me that is confusing the winters...it is dmillz who was saying it was 2008-2009.

He was describing an event where BOS got significant snow and NYC was basically a washout. There were a few of those in 2007-2008...notably 12/13/07, 12/16/07, and 1/14/08. There really weren't any in 2008-2009...lots of mixed bag events in NYC where BOS was mostly snow, but no storms where BOS had warning criteria snowfall and NYC got basically shutout due to ptype issues....as I mentioned previously, systems like MLK 2009 were cold enough for snow in NYC but they were too far southwest for much precip.  

 

Jerry was the one who said Feb/Mar rocked and then said he was indeed mixing up 2012-2013 and 2008-2009...both pretty big winters in Boston with similar snowfall, but they came in different orders...'08-'09 was obviously front loaded while '12-'13 was backloaded. But the storm dmillz is talking about happened well before that. I don't know how long he was in Boston for, but it almost sounds like he is describing an event from 2007-2008 rather than 2008-2009. Maybe he meant Dec 21, 2008...though Boston did not get a foot from that storm...only north of BOS did....but the fact that BOS got over a foot from the previous storm just 36 hour prior could have fuzzied the memory. But as you said, NYC didn't really get this big washout...prob a little snow at the onset, then some rain and then dryslot/drizzle.

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def was not in February. BOS only had like 6 inches the entire month. It had to have been December 19, 2008...but NYC did get some snow in that (though if you were in the southern parts of the city, it went to rain pretty quickly, while northern side had decent snow). There were some January storms that hit BOS while NYC only got a little...but it wasn't really a rain vs snow thing...more like they were too far southwest to get the goods...MLK weekend 2009 was a good example.

Not sure, 2007-2008 had a lot more storms where BOS was getting hit hard and NYC was actually raining.

You know what? I think it was MLK weekend. For some reason I was thinking it was in February. Thanks for the info

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Which I agree with. And imo that latitude is NNE

What makes you think the gradient is north of 07-08?

[CoastalWx]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That winter gets over-shadowed by 07-08 and 10-11, but aside from those two winters it's probably the third best since 2001 in terms of a combo of snowfall, snowpack, and snow depth days up in the northern Greens too.

Definitely a sneaky good winter that doesn't get a lot of play.  I was out with a knee injury from skiing that winter so it's not as vivid in my mind (wasn't out there Day in and day out) but the stats looking back show a steadily above normal snowpack and JSpin's data supports it as #3 in the past 10-15 years for snowfall/snow depth days for the local mountain valleys.  

I actually think the ski resort had over 350" in the 3000ft zone, to go along with last winter and 07-08 as the only 3 years since 2000-01 to do that.  

Funny though how we rarely mention that winter because of 07-08 and 10-11.  

We had over 73" down here. December really was snowy in the second half, but of course a grinch storm to boot. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 hours ago, weathafella said:

Agree-NNE will get more snow vs SNE.

The climate is out to get us. 

[Isotherm]

The second half of 2008-09 was much better than the first half here in interior ECNJ. The norlun event of 2/3/09 produced 6.3" here, and the March 2nd coastal storm jackpotted me with 13.5". There was a stripe of 8-12", locally 12"+ up through eastern NJ and into Long Island. Overall, 2008-09 ended up almost exactly normal as far as snowfall in the CNJ/NENJ region, and with plentiful arctic outbreaks, I'd rate it as a decent winter. We were essentially straddling the "horrid" winter to the south over the Mid-Atlantic/DCA-PHL, and the excellent winter immediately north in New England.

[H2Otown_WX]

14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's not me that is confusing the winters...it is dmillz who was saying it was 2008-2009.

He was describing an event where BOS got significant snow and NYC was basically a washout. There were a few of those in 2007-2008...notably 12/13/07, 12/16/07, and 1/14/08. There really weren't any in 2008-2009...lots of mixed bag events in NYC where BOS was mostly snow, but no storms where BOS had warning criteria snowfall and NYC got basically shutout due to ptype issues....as I mentioned previously, systems like MLK 2009 were cold enough for snow in NYC but they were too far southwest for much precip.  

 

 

But Will, what about MLK 2010? Was it cold enough for snow then?