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Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread


eyewall

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

She's here. Atmospherically, she has been here as well.

There's been some huge drops recently in Nina 1+2 and Nina 3...those are the most volatile anyway, so we don't want to overreact, but those subsurface plots tell me we're not seeing a significant reversal in the overall trends over the next few weeks.

 

We'll prob see 3.4 drop some more by the end of the month once some of those warm pockets get washed out. It's already in the -0.6 to -0.7C range.

 

 

SSTA.gif

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One thing we've also seen finally is a lot of cooling off Baja...SW of there we see much larger cold pool now....whereas the past 3 years before that it had been an absolute furnace there. It now is starting to transition back to the look we had more similar to the 2007-2012 Nina -PDO years. But we're not there yet...the N PAC though is cooling quite a bit too.

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33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One thing we've also seen finally is a lot of cooling off Baja...SW of there we see much larger cold pool now....whereas the past 3 years before that it had been an absolute furnace there. It now is starting to transition back to the look we had more similar to the 2007-2012 Nina -PDO years. But we're not there yet...the N PAC though is cooling quite a bit too.

Sounds more dumbfounding by the day.

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15 hours ago, uncle W said:

Newton NJ got nearly 19" in 72-73 with an 11" storm at the end of January...Port Jervis got 25" that winter...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html

Interesting - that's more than we got in BGR (7.6") from that event, even though it was by far the best storm I saw in that half-winter following the move.  We did get 9" of paste over 4 days in late Feb, but with no-stick S- during the daylight, depth never exceeded 4" during the event.  After which came 4 clear cold days and poof!  No more winter.  Then 73-74 threatened BGR's low-snow record until the 8.6" of powder (at upper 20s) on April 9-10.  We lived in the state nearly 3 years, until Dec. 1975, before we saw any "real" Maine winter.  Then moved to Ft. Kent on New Year's Day 1976.

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Interesting - that's more than we got in BGR (7.6") from that event, even though it was by far the best storm I saw in that half-winter following the move.  We did get 9" of paste over 4 days in late Feb, but with no-stick S- during the daylight, depth never exceeded 4" during the event.  After which came 4 clear cold days and poof!  No more winter.  Then 73-74 threatened BGR's low-snow record until the 8.6" of powder (at upper 20s) on April 9-10.  We lived in the state nearly 3 years, until Dec. 1975, before we saw any "real" Maine winter.  Then moved to Ft. Kent on New Year's Day 1976.

'72-'73 and '73-'74 are a couple of very underrated stink-bomb winters over New England...they kind of hide amidst the great winters that happened like '70-'71, '71-'72, '75-'76, '76-'77, and '77-'78...and '78-'79 was pretty good in Maine too but not so much in SNE.  

 

Dec '72 was pretty big though in western ME and even down into interior SNE....but winter was garbage after that month.

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40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

'72-'73 and '73-'74 are a couple of very underrated stink-bomb winters over New England...they kind of hide amidst the great winters that happened like '70-'71, '71-'72, '75-'76, '76-'77, and '77-'78...and '78-'79 was pretty good in Maine too but not so much in SNE.  

 

Dec '72 was pretty big though in western ME and even down into interior SNE....but winter was garbage after that month.

Lots of big snow piles when we got to BGR in Jan 1973 - they'd had about 50" in Dec - then blechh after that.

78-79 was weird in Maine, started great with a cold Nov and 46" in Dec at Ft. Kent, including 16.5" Dec 25-27 while my parents came for Christmas.  Then came January, PWM's snowiest month on record, with its #2 snowstorm, 27.1", beaten by Feb 13.  While that 27" was falling, my max-min touched -47 on the 18th, and while PWM was getting about 8" late month, we had mid-30s RA.  In 10 Januarys in Ft. Kent, we had 5 days with minima >32F, all in 1979.  In 9.7 winters we had 5 mornings at -39 or colder, 3 of them in 1979.  Then February had 8 consecutive days with subzero maxima and unending wind, followed by only 2" in March.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Interesting - that's more than we got in BGR (7.6") from that event, even though it was by far the best storm I saw in that half-winter following the move.  We did get 9" of paste over 4 days in late Feb, but with no-stick S- during the daylight, depth never exceeded 4" during the event.  After which came 4 clear cold days and poof!  No more winter.  Then 73-74 threatened BGR's low-snow record until the 8.6" of powder (at upper 20s) on April 9-10.  We lived in the state nearly 3 years, until Dec. 1975, before we saw any "real" Maine winter.  Then moved to Ft. Kent on New Year's Day 1976.

I don't know if you know this already but there is a coop in Ft Kent going back to the 1800's...Ft. Kent got 30" in January 1976...

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-4806CFFD-74ED-4730-9422-3860068B2BBA.pdf

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30 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I don't know if you know this already but there is a coop in Ft Kent going back to the 1800's...Ft. Kent got 30" in January 1976...

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-4806CFFD-74ED-4730-9422-3860068B2BBA.pdf

I've got temp/rainfall records for 1/1/1893 thru 6/30/1894, then almost nothing until some sporadic precip/snowfall starting in 1927.  Complete obs, temp-precip-snow, begin 9/36 with consistent depths coming 3 years later.  Maybe I should check the Climod site to see if some blanks could be filled in.  (I used to go to Utah Climate Center, but find their current site rather clunky.)
With very few exceptions (Gardiner dates back to 1886), Maine's oldest co-ops began in Jan 1893.  At least those I've discovered, and I'm sure there are some I've not.  I happen to live about 6 miles from one of that bunch; Farmington's records for temp, precip, snowfall are over 99% complete 1893 on, missed several months in 1909 plus 2-3 other months.  Snowpack is sketchy before the current observer took over in 1966, which brings up a concern - he's far from young; will anyone take his place?  LEW is also class of 1893, and they dropped off the charts about 6 years ago.

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5 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Jerry...it looks like it is time to start the Soviet Snowcover Spectacular thread.  The first blotches of white are appearing on the map, with a big cold outbreak on tap over the next 10 days.

I have doubts as to whether it has any significance...but it's something to track anyway.

lol....started on the main page 2 weeks ago.

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8 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Go ahead and torch the winter. Strong Ninas is a shades closed all winter type of deal 

 

National Weather Service Science and Operations Officer Zaaron Allen says the coming La Nina shouldn’t be as severe as last winter’s.

“There’s a La Nina Watch for this fall and winter for the northern hemisphere,” he said. “It looks to be a rather weak La Nina.”

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21 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That will make some cringe on here................lol, But i won't if it comes to fruition.

With a bit more blocking, maybe...sign me up.

Steve is way ahead of me...still early in process, but no immediate reason to discount that...but I do feel we may see more blocking than we did that year. Not necessarily saying much...

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

With a bit more blocking, maybe...sign me up.

Steve is way ahead of me...still early in process, but no immediate reason to discount that...but I do feel we may see more blocking than we did that year. Not necessarily saying much...

Pretty much anyone pike-northward would sign up for '07-'08 if offered right now.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

With a bit more blocking, maybe...sign me up.

Steve is way ahead of me...still early in process, but no immediate reason to discount that...but I do feel we may see more blocking than we did that year. Not necessarily saying much...

Way to early but there is some ENSO similarities to that winter, I don't think anyone south of the pike would be partying like it was 1999 if it was a 2007-2008 repeat.

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

With a bit more blocking, maybe...sign me up.

Steve is way ahead of me...still early in process, but no immediate reason to discount that...but I do feel we may see more blocking than we did that year. Not necessarily saying much...

Get enough blocking to move the record 175-225" that fell in southern Ontario and Quebec into NNE, and move NNE's totals from that winter into SNE.  All good in the hood.

 

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'07-'08 was such a strong gradient that you could have a very similar winter except maybe 50 or 100 miles south is partying all winter too. It's almost impossible to nail that kind of a gradient twice...though 1970-1971 was pretty damned close. It was probably a little south of the '07-'08 gradient though.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

'07-'08 was such a strong gradient that you could have a very similar winter except maybe 50 or 100 miles south is partying all winter too. It's almost impossible to nail that kind of a gradient twice...though 1970-1971 was pretty damned close. It was probably a little south of the '07-'08 gradient though.

Yeah it's very true.  Hopefully the gradient doesn't go 100 miles north, then we are dumbfounded up here lol.

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