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Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread


eyewall

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Looking at that graphic I find it hard to believe we did so well that year actually.

It's not that bad a pattern...ridge is displaced far enough SE so we're actually close to the storm track and there was clearly some cold air available...ironically, the excessive +NAO in December helped us because it was so far southwest so it created a lot of confluence in SE Canada...we kept getting those Quebec highs which protected us during the front end thumps. You can almost see a kink there in the height lines in Quebec...the upstream ridging and then the confluence over eastern Quebec and Nova Scotia/New Foundland.

 

We def got a bit lucky in December that year...but the pattern probably wasn't as bad as the first glance of the 500mb anomalies would suggest. We can have above average heights and do ok...we just want a cold source and a bit of confluence plus an active storm track...and that winter had all 3.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's not that bad a pattern...ridge is displaced far enough SE so we're actually close to the storm track and there was clearly some cold air available...ironically, the excessive +NAO in December helped us because it was so far southwest so it created a lot of confluence in SE Canada...we kept getting those Quebec highs which protected us during the front end thumps. You can almost see a kink there in the height lines in Quebec...the upstream ridging and then the confluence over eastern Quebec and Nova Scotia/New Foundland.

 

We def got a bit lucky in December that year...but the pattern probably wasn't as bad as the first glance of the 500mb anomalies would suggest. We can have above average heights and do ok...we just want a cold source and a bit of confluence plus an active storm track...and that winter had all 3.

And if you take that JMA graphic posted, it has even more of a pronounced dateline ridge. Sometimes pretty colors at 500 don't tell the whole story. 

 

But you go to HFD-PVD on south..and it was not the best winter for sure. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And if you take that JMA graphic posted, it has even more of a pronounced dateline ridge. Sometimes pretty colors at 500 don't tell the whole story. 

 

But you go to HFD-PVD on south..and it was not the best winter for sure. 

It was def an excessive gradient. BOS-ORH did pretty well while it was basically a ratter for PVD-HFD and absolutely horrific for GON-BDR while dendrite was pretending he lived in Stowe...PVD/HFD did great during the 12/13/07 event but then it was basically lights out south of that line for the rest of winter.

It was really active...definitely a ginxy "NB" winter. Lots of events to track. I'm hoping this winter is similar in the active department.

 

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was def an excessive gradient. BOS-ORH did pretty well while it was basically a ratter for PVD-HFD and absolutely horrific for GON-BDR while dendrite was pretending he lived in Stowe...PVD/HFD did great during the 12/13/07 event but then it was basically lights out south of that line for the rest of winter.

It was really active...definitely a ginxy "NB" winter. Lots of events to track. I'm hoping this winter is similar in the active department.

 

all we can ask for is chances and not a lot of STL to BUF cutters

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4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Or one strong cutter to change the pattern for the better if needed 

Meh, we've had plenty of strong cutters that occurred and did not do sh*t in lousy winters. I think you need the H5 pattern to be in the midst of changing for that to really help facilitate blocking. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Meh, we've had plenty of strong cutters that occurred and did not do sh*t in lousy winters. I think you need the H5 pattern to be in the midst of changing for that to really help facilitate blocking. 

Yeah you need the storm to assist in a wave break that is probably already trying to happen. The 1980s would have been an epic decade if most cutters switched the pattern to cold/snowy.

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

the scars on you guys growing up in that period will never heal

1988-89 through 1991-92...only consecutive 4 year stretch on record without a double digit snow event in ORH (and also the only consecutive 3 year stretch as well).

Considering that stretch started when I was in 2nd grade, that's a brutal introduction to snow weenieism. Especially since my expectations had been set when we were up from Texas for Christmas 1986 and New Years 1987 and I got to see the 1/2/87 storm demolish the region with 12"+ of paste. So when we moved back to ORH in 1988, I was expecting big snows. I was too young to remember April '82 and the great Jan/Feb '83 stretch.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

1988-89 through 1991-92...only consecutive 4 year stretch on record without a double digit snow event in ORH (and also the only consecutive 3 year stretch as well).

Considering that stretch started when I was in 2nd grade, that's a brutal introduction to snow weenieism. Especially since my expectations had been set when we were up from Texas for Christmas 1986 and New Years 1987 and I got to see the 1/2/87 storm demolish the region with 12"+ of paste. I was too young to remember April '82 and the great Jan/Feb '83 stretch.

yea I was lucky to be in that age group in the 60's. Cold and snowy seemed like the norm for winter then came 1973 79 and 80

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Those scars will never be healed. Years and years where 6" storms were the KU. Cutter-cold-cutter-cold....parents telling you how we just don't get snow like we used to. God, I want to puke just thinking of that. Yuck. Then came December 1992. One more time for me to cry, as Will was weenie deep in paste...and then we rarely looked back. 

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

No blockbusters (or even close) up here, but the endless stream of SWFEs built a tall and solid snowpack.

Wasn't there a bigger storm in mid-December?  I seem to remember a 16-inch event in BTV that December 2007.  

That winter was when S.Quebec and Ontario saw their snowiest winter ever I think.  Montreal was absolutely buried, just far enough north.  That winter the mix line would get up near the International border and stall out.

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Dec 2007 even BTV had 45" which is huge there (half the annual average)...and I believe the ski areas were near 100" that month at the summits. 

Dec 2007 ended up -1.2 for temps too...but looks like in classic fashion there was a +20 day with 50F and half inch of rain on the 23rd to ruin the holiday season.  BTV had a snow depth of 22" that whittled down to 10" for Christmas with the Grinch thaw.  That's still pretty good for BTV where snowpack goes to die.

Active though as even BTV had 10 days with greater than 2" of snowfall.  

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Those scars will never be healed. Years and years where 6" storms were the KU. Cutter-cold-cutter-cold....parents telling you how we just don't get snow like we used to. God, I want to puke just thinking of that. Yuck. Then came December 1992. One more time for me to cry, as Will was weenie deep in paste...and then we rarely looked back. 

:lmao:

 

They always used to say that and talk about the blizzard of '78 and the 1960s. Then the talk finally subsided once we got those 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 winters...then came of course 1995-1996 and April '97 (and Dec '96 for us back in the interior). We did get kind of a ratter trio of years in '97-'98, '98-'99, and '99-'00...though each of those winters had their moments...they were better than some of the ratters in the 1980s and early '90s. We had Dec '97, Feb/Mar '99 and that good stretch in January 2000. But it started feeling a little ugly until 2000-2001 revived it again....and then the extremely underrated 2002-2003 winter up here. It kind of gets a lot of glory in the Mid-Atlantic for good reason, but it is very sneaky for a place like BOS and ORH...for Logan it was the 6th coldest winter on record and with 71.3" of snow to go with it. ORH had 117.3" of snow...good for #4 all time. Then you get '04-'05 of course a couple years later...not to mention the more recent blockbusters. We've had some pretty amazing stretches of winter since 1992.

 

 

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Those scars will never be healed. Years and years where 6" storms were the KU. Cutter-cold-cutter-cold....parents telling you how we just don't get snow like we used to. God, I want to puke just thinking of that. Yuck. Then came December 1992. One more time for me to cry, as Will was weenie deep in paste...and then we rarely looked back. 

Late 90s were pretty meh though for this area. I guesss you can grab any 3yr stretch positive or negative though. Regardless, The past 17years of storms far outweigh the previous 17 that ive been living in states. I just hope this era isnt a peak cycle but I am prepared, mentally, if it is.

80s were so brutal in NJ I thought a foot was historic. But at least as a kid a foot looked like two feet now, so its all relative I guess. 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Reading thru here today.. there's def a lot of worried folks about winter and a noticeable lack of confidence in a good winter. Color us worried 

Nobody should ever be confident in a good winter on September 14th...or really even November 14th in most cases. The only time I'd ever be confident of a good winter in New England would be a weak El Nino and even then, I'd still be a little hesitant based on sample size.

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