powderfreak Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Congrats everyone who rooted on the not hot summer! The logic behind this post gives me a brain cramp. A below normal July and August leads to a mild February the following winter, if I'm reading that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Doesn't mean much. We've been over this a hundred times from different posters, but those model types ...well, first of all, it should be incumbent upon the poster to at least research a modicum of background of what ever it is they are posting about. This time, clearly that did not happen. In short, the GFDL system is based on the ocean-atmospheric coupling - which is very good. However, it doesn't do so hot when it comes to integrating Siberian air masses that end up in Hemispheric cold conveyors... In fact, it doesn't handle polarward mass-field modulations at middle latitudes very well at all. That is usage of that product in a kind of immature "see, told ya so" use could not be any more uninformed and idiotic. It's not just for the above reasons... but, that same took forecast that same look prior to 2013 and 2015, and look what happened those years... I mean, there's not 'see told ya' there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 45 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The logic behind this post gives me a brain cramp. A below normal July and August leads to a mild February the following winter, if I'm reading that right? 45 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The logic behind this post gives me a brain cramp. A below normal July and August leads to a mild February the following winter, if I'm reading that right? You're not . It's DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Same sh*&$#t different winter. Doom and gloom on cue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: You're not . It's DJF Ha. I'm an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 GFDL, Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: GFDL, Hmm Seems like more and more models coming around to warm winter in the East. Someone give some hope, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: Seems like more and more models coming around to warm winter in the East. Someone give some hope, please! The comment was made because i don't think anyone has seen the GFDL be used for a seasonal 2m temp map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 28 minutes ago, dryslot said: The comment was made because i don't think anyone has seen the GFDL be used for a seasonal 2m temp map. GFDL is really a dynamic tropical model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFDL is really a dynamic tropical model. That's what i had associated it with as being a tropical model, Was not sure if it was a statistical or dynamical or a combo of both as i have only looked at it occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 It's coming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 It's coming....Did you test each of them out to see if your head would fit in them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 hour ago, JC-CT said: 4 hours ago, Cold Miser said: It's coming.... Did you test each of them out to see if your head would fit in them? lol. Why? is it going to be that kind of a winter? I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 lol. Why? is it going to be that kind of a winter? I hope not. No such thing as being too prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: lol. Why? is it going to be that kind of a winter? I hope not. No such thing as being too prepared. True, although Kevin's crystal ball map up there with the magical prediction for AN met winter temps has the winter train already derailing it's only September. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 True, although Kevin's crystal ball map up there with the magical prediction for AN met winter temps has the winter train already derailing it's only September. lolI heard that local mets secretly give his winter forecast 25% weighting when making their own forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 16 hours ago, Cold Miser said: It's coming.... They only expect to sell 4 snowblowers? Sounds like a deadratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:18 PM, powderfreak said: The logic behind this post gives me a brain cramp. A below normal July and August leads to a mild February the following winter, if I'm reading that right? No - the logic is that if you root for a cool summer it makes it mild in the winter. It's that a cool summer makes for a mild winter but just the act of wishing or wanting one makes it happen. 17 hours ago, Cold Miser said: It's coming.... I actually fired up my snowblower over the weekend. It's not that I needed it, but I like to run my engines (generator, chain saw, etc.) periodically just to keep things moving. The thing started right up...it's ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 13 hours ago, JC-CT said: 13 hours ago, Cold Miser said: True, although Kevin's crystal ball map up there with the magical prediction for AN met winter temps has the winter train already derailing it's only September. lol I heard that local mets secretly give his winter forecast 25% weighting when making their own forecasts. I laughed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 hour ago, MetHerb said: No - the logic is that if you root for a cool summer it makes it mild in the winter. It's that a cool summer makes for a mild winter but just the act of wishing or wanting one makes it happen. I actually fired up my snowblower over the weekend. It's not that I needed it, but I like to run my engines (generator, chain saw, etc.) periodically just to keep things moving. The thing started right up...it's ready! Always be prepared for the 800hr CFS snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: Always be prepared for the 800hr CFS snowstorm. Aaaah ...that's a weak open wave progressive storm that only ends as wet snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The 00z Euro was warm as hell for most of the U.S.. from after D 3 ...pretty much right out to the end of that run. Although, some lucky +9 C, 850 mb synoptically tucked air (much like the atmosphere has been stuck doing to us since April for that matter) does keep us sort of normalized there. Otherwise, that was a warm ass look through D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: Always be prepared for the 800hr CFS snowstorm. 38 year anniversary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 hours ago, dendrite said: They only expect to sell 4 snowblowers? Sounds like a deadratter. lol. And if nothing happens by Christmas, they will probably send them back and put the mowers out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:18 PM, powderfreak said: The logic behind this post gives me a brain cramp. A below normal July and August leads to a mild February the following winter, if I'm reading that right? you don't have to go that far back to debunk that...2014 have a cooler July and August and a very cold January February the next winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Aaaah ...that's a weak open wave progressive storm that only ends as wet snow... Only because the model doesn't have the resolution to see the strength of the shortwave yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Ryan's old boss is all in: https://patch.com/connecticut/vernon/snow-business-field-predicting-snowy-winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Ryan's old boss is all in: https://patch.com/connecticut/vernon/snow-business-field-predicting-snowy-winterWe are getting ENSO this year. Sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Uh oh Some of us have been hitting the Nina train in here for over a month now...it's been trending that way. We can do very well though in Ninas...esp when PDO is struggling to go neg. (think '00-'01, '95-'96, '83-'84 for some examples)...and we can certainly do well in Ninas with a big -PDO anyway...2010-2011, 2008-2009, 2007-2008, etc...we'll have a better idea in another month to 8 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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