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Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread


eyewall

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23 minutes ago, Paragon said:

That was the two to three footer I read about with temps near 0! I wonder how that happened?

Speaking about really snowy winters, looking at the "unofficial records" there was a winter like 2 years before Central Park began keeping snowfall records that supposedly had 90" of snow.  That was the last blockbuster winter of the 1800s.  Pity that it didn't happen two years later.

 

Probably 1866-1867....that was an epically cold winter over a lot of N.A....but it froze pretty much all the rivers solid in the northeast including the Hudson down to NYC and probably parts of the sounds/harbors. It was fairly snowy as well but the data on snow is really poor that far back.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A lot of the PAC signal is still Nina in the upper levels...at least Mike Vs ENSO diagnostics. 

What do you make of the subsurface cooling?

 

It's looking pretty accelerated the past 2 weeks. La Nina is definitely becoming more likely looking at that...or at least a cold-neutral.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What do you make of the subsurface cooling?

 

It's looking pretty accelerated the past 2 weeks. La Nina is definitely becoming more likely looking at that...or at least a cold-neutral.

Looks like there has been some anomalous erly flow at 850 from like 150E-140W. So no surprise at the cooling there I guess. Looking at his Vp200 stuff...definitely some sort of CCKW and/or MJO signal in the western PAC too. I can't post the exact stuff he has, but similar to this.  http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html

The VP200 stuff seems to be a much better way to gauge with the forcing as the Wheeler diagram can give a false signal if some of the parameters are off. 

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1800's snowstorms from old newspapers...1866-67 had three major storms that winter in NYC...

.

1836 'big snow' from the NY herald from 1/10/1836...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030311/1836-01-11/ed-1/seq-2/

1/20/1857...'the cold snowstorm'...

1857 from the ny daily tribune...

http://chroniclingam...-20/ed-1/seq-5/

1867 storms...

January 1867

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-18/ed-1/seq-4/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-21/ed-1/seq-5/

March 1867

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-03-18/ed-1/seq-5/

The December 1872 storm

1872... 12/27...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1872-12-28/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1872-12-28/ed-1/seq-5/

1/1/1873...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1873-01-01/ed-1/seq-1/

1888...

The Portland storm' of November 26th-27th 1898...

1898...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341645/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341652

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1898-11-27/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1898-11-27/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1898-11-27/ed-1/seq-1/

1898...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341716/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341718

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341720

 

later on in the winter of 1898-99 came the blizzard of February 12-13th, 1899...it was accompanied by coldest arctic outbreak of that century...

http://fultonhistory...cale - 0816.pdf

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-13/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-13/ed-1/seq-7/

 

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-3/

http://fultonhistory...cale - 0817.pdf

http://fultonhistory...cale - 0817.pdf

 

http://fultonhistory...cale - 0829.pdf

http://fultonhistory...cale - 0830.pdf

http://chroniclingam...-14/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-14/ed-1/seq-2/

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Probably 1866-1867....that was an epically cold winter over a lot of N.A....but it froze pretty much all the rivers solid in the northeast including the Hudson down to NYC and probably parts of the sounds/harbors. It was fairly snowy as well but the data on snow is really poor that far back.

Yes, that and a lot of the older winters had stories about people setting up shops on the river in the middle of winter and even crossing over on foot from NJ to Manhattan.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

A lot of the PAC signal is still Nina in the upper levels...at least Mike Vs ENSO diagnostics. 

Yes, it's a very curious pattern, and chances are highest for cold neutral for the winter, though that doesn't necessarily preclude a cold winter, especially with low solar.

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

1800's snowstorms from old newspapers...1866-67 had three major storms that winter in NYC...

.

1836 'big snow' from the NY herald from 1/10/1836...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030311/1836-01-11/ed-1/seq-2/

1/20/1857...'the cold snowstorm'...

1857 from the ny daily tribune...

http://chroniclingam...-20/ed-1/seq-5/

1867 storms...

January 1867

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-18/ed-1/seq-4/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-21/ed-1/seq-5/

March 1867

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-03-18/ed-1/seq-5/

The December 1872 storm

1872... 12/27...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1872-12-28/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1872-12-28/ed-1/seq-5/

1/1/1873...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1873-01-01/ed-1/seq-1/

1888...

The Portland storm' of November 26th-27th 1898...

1898...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341645/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341652

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1898-11-27/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1898-11-27/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1898-11-27/ed-1/seq-1/

1898...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341716/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341718

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341720

 

later on in the winter of 1898-99 came the blizzard of February 12-13th, 1899...it was accompanied by coldest arctic outbreak of that century...

http://fultonhistory...cale - 0816.pdf

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-13/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-13/ed-1/seq-7/

 

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-3/

http://fultonhistory...cale - 0817.pdf

http://fultonhistory...cale - 0817.pdf

 

http://fultonhistory...cale - 0829.pdf

http://fultonhistory...cale - 0830.pdf

http://chroniclingam...-14/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-14/ed-1/seq-2/

1836 was the one I think with the 100" of snow in NYC and PHL.

With the March 1888 blizzard, indications are that it was undermeasured, with 26-32" widespread across the region.

In the curious November and February winter of 1898-99 Cape May had 34" in February.

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we had good bad and ugly winters from various enso's...this year is different from a second consecutive weak la nina year because of the failed el nino of recent months...2012 was also a failed el nino year...February 2013 will be remembered in New England for the big blizzard...I still think blocking will make or break this winter...last winter there was little blocking but when it came so did the snow...

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Some good weak Niña winters:

2008-2009, 2000-2001, 1995-1996, 1983-1984...there's been some duds in there too like 2011-2012 and some winters in the first half of the 1950s but overall a weak Niña has been pretty solid. Last year I wouldn't classify as very good but it was OK. Pretty good for snow but probably warmer than we'd like. 

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14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

May have to start rooting for a weak nina, if we aren't going to have a weak nino.

Chuck ftw?

When was the last consecutive weak nines?

Yeah...I'm not at home right now, but I'd like to see the years that were the 2nd of B2B weak ninas. We're probably pushing SSS with that though.

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15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

May have to start rooting for a weak nina, if we aren't going to have a weak nino.

Chuck ftw?

When was the last consecutive weak nines?

 

If we achieve weak Nina while concurrently maintaining a +PDO, that would be a very conducive, rare couplet.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...I'm not at home right now, but I'd like to see the years that were the 2nd of B2B weak ninas. We're probably pushing SSS with that though.

There's hardly any occurrences of back to back weak Ninas...'84-'85 you could maybe count. '96-'97 is close too...but yeah, obviously small samples. Those two winters were pretty different.

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Mmmm...not to swoop in heavy handedly and derail the present hypothetical course ...but, personally I think these minutia/details are less factor-ably important compared to the bigger ones upon sifting through a scaled-equation effort. 

Scaling equation in physics is a method for determining the greatest influence on system ... I think we'll find that the atmosphere is less sensitive to nuances in the oceanic quadrature, compared to the general distribution of SST anomalies along with the integrated OHC, in the total coupled atmospheric/oceanic model. 

That's a dizzying array of words that means warmer or cooler than normal in these smaller regions are probably less effective at modulating the whole atmosphere, compared to the whole of all other factors combined.   ...which is also a concept that is hard to write in simple tenths ...heh.   Plus, then we got to get into emergent processes too; whereby, three factors working in tandem causes the "appearance" of a fourth, but the fourth doesn't exist without the three - transitive forcing.  ugh. 

I'd just go ENSO neutral (for all intents and purposes...) and compare it to reanalysis therein/of ...and then through in the usual caveat emptor that ENSO and polarward atmospheric indexes tend to part company and come into circulation conflicts ... That's sort of last year in a lot of ways, come to think about it... We had a complexion on the charts much of the time that looked like party, but there was way too much gradient (for whatever reason) in the means, and so that stressed the crap out of storm genesis for it's muting effects on smaller scaled disturbances.  

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some good weak Niña winters:

2008-2009, 2000-2001, 1995-1996, 1983-1984...there's been some duds in there too like 2011-2012 and some winters in the first half of the 1950s but overall a weak Niña has been pretty solid. Last year I wouldn't classify as very good but it was OK. Pretty good for snow but probably warmer than we'd like. 

 

33 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

If we achieve weak Nina while concurrently maintaining a +PDO, that would be a very conducive, rare couplet.

1995-'96 was one.

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25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

1995-'96 was one.

2000-2001 had a mildly positive PDO too. But it wasn't like 1995-1996 where it was solidly positive all year leading into the winter. 1983-1984 was also a strongly positive PDO in a weak Nina.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2000-2001 had a mildly positive PDO too. But it wasn't like 1995-1996 where it was solidly positive all year leading into the winter. 1983-1984 was also a strongly positive PDO in a weak Nina.

Off of the top of my head, I think 1983-'84 featured about exactly normal snowfall IMBY.

It makes sense that 2000-'01 was interior-focused, since the Pacific was meek.

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