Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Feb. 6-7th Storm Potential


Chicago Storm

Recommended Posts

10 hours ago, harrisale said:

GFS has shown a fairly consistent icing signal for Southern Ontario. 0.5" ZR could come to fruition. 

12z Euro has some initial ice, but for the most part it falls as rain with surface temperatures peaking at 43F. Areas north of Barrie towards eastern Ontario get the ice this run. Euro has been the warmest model for this system. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 105
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

Meanwhile on the svr concern end of this, the Sunday evening NAM has STP around 6 overnight  Monday night from St. Louis southwestward. Effective Helicity is around 360.  CAPE over 1000 and low LCL's.

Ingredients seem a bit out of phase to me on Tuesday (better instability lagging).  Will be curious to see what SPC has to say.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tonight into early tomorrow

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1012 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2017

   Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TONIGHT
   FROM THE OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with a threat for isolated hail and wind damage
   may develop across parts of the Ozarks northeastward into the middle
   Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys tonight.

   ...Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley tonight...
   A largely zonal regime persists across the contiguous United States.
   A lead shortwave trough is now emerging over the southern/central
   High Plains, and this wave will reach MO by early tonight.  The
   primary upstream trough, now over the southern Great Basin, will
   reach OK/AR early Tuesday morning.  Broad lee cyclogenesis across
   the central Plains will continue to support strengthening southerly
   low-level flow and moisture advection from east TX and LA toward
   AR/MO through tonight.  Clouds associated with the moisture return
   will slow surface heating from northeast TX and eastern OK into AR
   through the afternoon, while eastward expansion of a plume of steep
   lapse rates will likely cap the moistening boundary layer through
   the afternoon.

   The increasing low-level moisture beneath steepening midlevel lapse
   rates will result in potentially moderate buoyancy, and vertical
   shear will be favorable for supercells.  Will maintain a conditional
   risk area for large hail/isolated damaging winds, and perhaps a
   tornado, given the approach of the lead shortwave trough and the
   later arrival of the primary trough.  Still, confidence in the
   details regarding convective initiation remain unclear into tonight
   across eastern OK into AR/MO.  Farther northeast, convective
   inhibition will be weaker as low-level moisture increases on a
   strengthening southwesterly low-level jet.  Elevated convection
   overnight may produce large hail into IL/IN.

   ..Thompson/Edwards.. 02/06/2017

 

day1otlk_1630.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

It is strange but I can't get the Day 2 SPC convective outlook to load.  They only have the map and outlook from 0700 on the page.  Anyone else have this problem?

The SPC is having some issues uploading new products to their website right now

Screen Shot 2017-02-06 at 2.38.37 PM.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Willh said:

Up to about 8-9 inches of snow since last night. Very dense snow.

 

Well over 200 inches of snow for the season. Prolly around 215-220 inches so far here in Calumet.

7" since 5 am here Will.  I estimate 2" per hour rates currently with lake enhancement.  5-6" more likely... 21 degrees. Dense snow beginning to fluff up a bit more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Willh said:

Nice Bo!

 

This storm is really over-performing over here. We had 8-9 inches a few hours ago...and its still pouring snow and my car is covered once again.

Looking good for the near future, too. This storm was canceled too early...mostly by snow weenies in the big cities.

 

This is really turning out to be a fun storm in the UP.

 

Lucky for you, been pooing freezing rain in my area for a couple hours now, roads are a mess. Not a good combination especially when your wife is due any day now. Hopefully it switches over to LES pretty quickly and the road crews can get on the ice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice Bo!

 

This storm is really over-performing over here. We had 8-9 inches a few hours ago...and its still pouring snow and my car is covered once again.

Looking good for the near future, too. This storm was canceled too early...mostly by snow weenies in the big cities.

 

This is really turning out to be a fun storm in the UP.

No one canceled the storm. Non-event for 99% of the sub-forum means it isn't interesting for most.

You really need to learn how to post in this sub. Cause you're off to a bad start.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Willh said:

Nice Bo!

 

This storm is really over-performing over here. We had 8-9 inches a few hours ago...and its still pouring snow and my car is covered once again.

Looking good for the near future, too. This storm was canceled too early...mostly by snow weenies in the big cities.

 

This is really turning out to be a fun storm in the UP.

 

Awesome news.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Lucky for you, been pooing freezing rain in my area for a couple hours now, roads are a mess. Not a good combination especially when your wife is due any day now. Hopefully it switches over to LES pretty quickly and the road crews can get on the ice.

It's really bad a horrible winter for synoptic outside of the UP.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...