Stebo Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: I will say Alek is optimistic about this one.. Optimistic for snow or storms? Hell with how boring things have been for Chicago he could just be optimistic it does something. It's too bad he is still ghosting the forum though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 36 minutes ago, Stebo said: Optimistic for snow or storms? Hell with how boring things have been for Chicago he could just be optimistic it does something. It's too bad he is still ghosting the forum though. If he's optimistic about the snow aspect, then he's probably got the wrong Alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: If he's optimistic about the snow aspect, then he's probably got the wrong Alek. Haha, yeah that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2017 Author Share Posted February 4, 2017 If he's optimistic about the snow aspect, then he's probably got the wrong Alek.Surprisingly, it's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Surprisingly, it's true. Very surprising. Have a hard time seeing how this is anything more than minor wraparound accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 St Louis afternoon AFD still concerned about svr t storms if things trend GFS way rather than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 You can see the effect of having nice mid level lapse rates and decent low level moisture on the 00z NAM, with a corridor of 1000 J/kg SBCAPE in Missouri... at 6 am Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 5 hours ago, andyhb said: That southern wave is too progressive, otherwise you'd have a chance for a full phase and really rapid cyclogenesis. Can't seem to shake the uber-progressive upper level flow for ****. That's been our main achilles heel as far as getting significant storm systems, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Euro speeds up even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 what a turd... disappointing yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Just get some more snow bo. I wont nitpick how much lol. Just add some to the pack! I leave 1 week from today! Detroit has twice the snow depth that Mackinac & Escanaba have right now. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Just get some more snow bo. I wont nitpick how much lol. Just add some to the pack! I leave 1 week from today! Detroit has twice the snow depth that Mackinac & Escanaba have right now. Yikes. You're going to find the snow depths here disappointing. A foot still may fall in the higher terrain locally, but when you head west of Marquette, the deeper depths are north of 41, and there just aren't roads that penetrate the Huron's more than a few miles. The last time I was in Negaunee, there was only around 15" otg. The eastern UP has had very good lake snows the past couple days and depths there are over 30" in spots. Even tho, IMO, west of Marquette is much more beautiful due to the rugged terrain and white pine forests, if you're looking for deeper snow, I'd stay east. My depth has settled to 21". Although, models do show a nice little snow next weekend here, but way too far off to even consider it happening. 2 years ago I was at 38" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 34 minutes ago, weatherbo said: You're going to find the snow depths here disappointing. A foot still may fall in the higher terrain locally, but when you head west of Marquette, the deeper depths are north of 41, and there just aren't roads that penetrate the Huron's more than a few miles. The last time I was in Negaunee, there was only around 15" otg. The eastern UP has had very good lake snows the past couple days and depths there are over 30" in spots. Even tho, IMO, west of Marquette is much more beautiful due to the rugged terrain and white pine forests, if you're looking for deeper snow, I'd stay east. My depth has settled to 21". Although, models do show a nice little snow next weekend here, but way too far off to even consider it happening. 2 years ago I was at 38" While the depth is disappointing, Id still rather see the beauty of your area, Ive been to the eastern UP many times. And obviously there is still snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 I take it all back.....zzzzzzzzz.....Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 ^shades of Alek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 It is interesting that the SPC has portions of the region in a risk for Severe Thunderstorms Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Yep, that SPC svr outlook was from this Sat. morning analysis. I would expect them to chop off a lot of it on the northern end given today's model runs with weaker low pressure than originally thought and lack of good directional shear in low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Yep, that SPC svr outlook was from this Sat. morning analysis. I would expect them to chop off a lot of it on the northern end given today's model runs with weaker low pressure than originally thought and lack of good directional shear in low levels. Still a fair amount on variability on the exact details. Now the ECMWF is on the stronger/western side of the op models. More appreciable tornado threat is problematic though barring a trend toward quicker deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Still a fair amount on variability on the exact details. Now the ECMWF is on the stronger/western side of the op models. More appreciable tornado threat is problematic though barring a trend toward quicker deepening. Yeah, NAM still looks rather interesting as well as it comes into range. We'll see how much digging takes place with the wave along with slowing it down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2017 Author Share Posted February 4, 2017 Likely headed towards another non-event overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Likely headed towards another non-event overall. This is one of the worst winters for snow lovers I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Each run of GFS has the shortwave becoming flatter. The system is way weaker than it was looking a couple days ago. The latest run has Minneapolis getting nothing and Green Bay just a little light snow from the backwash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 This what happens when TWC names an event winter storm "Joke" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 37 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Each run of GFS has the shortwave becoming flatter. The system is way weaker than it was looking a couple days ago. The latest run has Minneapolis getting nothing and Green Bay just a little light snow from the backwash. I Remember a few days ago the euro run showing a 965 mb low on superior. Now we might be lucky to have it sub 1000 mb before entering Canada. Horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 54 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Each run of GFS has the shortwave becoming flatter. The system is way weaker than it was looking a couple days ago. The latest run has Minneapolis getting nothing and Green Bay just a little light snow from the backwash. Loving It, finally south / weak / cold enough for mostly snow around here, but the QPF seems pretty horrible with the weakening sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 As far as severe chances, differences exist between the 00z NAM and GFS. The GFS threat is like non-existent roughly north of the Ohio River while the NAM would probably suggest some threat. I'm tempted to think the GFS may have gone a bit too far on the flat/weak side, but a quick look at the ensembles sort of supports the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 WPC is leaning away from the op GFS in their model discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 GFS has shown a fairly consistent icing signal for Southern Ontario. 0.5" ZR could come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 This would be quite something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 With each model run, the "big lake effect snows" local meteorologists predicted seem to be fading fast with this system. Just can't catch a break this pathetic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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