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Just now, yoda said:

I could see a Day 2 MOD appear on the 0700 SPC OTLK... ofc not around here... but I wouldn't be surprised by one for the Ohio Valley area... ENH may be nearby our region IMO

Yea that's the upper end for us I think. If things fall into place perfectly we could get a Day 1 MOD if the TOR threat amps up a bit, but thats uber pressing it.

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Was the derecho the last mod day here? Not comparing anything of course, just asking.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20160224

That event had MOD risk close by just to our south... also had hatched TOR over our area (Feb 24 2016)... closest I can find right now in the SPC archive

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31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea that's the upper end for us I think. If things fall into place perfectly we could get a Day 1 MOD if the TOR threat amps up a bit, but thats uber pressing it.

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised to see many of us get closer to the Enhanced Risk with the Day 2 update tonight. Any Moderate Risk wouldn't come until the later Day 1 updates after SPC sees how things are unfolding/cloud cover/mesoscale boundaries, etc.

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Just now, southmdwatcher said:

Yoda, I have SHARPpy as well but probably not an updated version that can do specific locations like you are posting, is southern MD still TOR and PDS TOR Wednesday evening? And where can I find the updated version of SHARPpy? My older version shows DCA as PDS Tor at 23z Wed on 4km NAM

 

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Thats where I get my soundings from

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00z SPC WRF has our area precip free after the early morning hours of Wednesday (after 7z)... precip at 12z WED in western WV is headed NE and will miss our area... and has temps in the low 60s at DCA at 7am... run ends at 12z WED, so going to have to wait till the 12z run tomorrow morning to see what the SPC WRF does in our region

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Quite a change from Wednesday (sunny at times, 80 F) to Friday (cloudy, 37 F, chance of snow).

Think there could be widespread 60-70 mph gusts with the squall line around 10 p.m. Wednesday, possible F2 tornado risk, also an earlier threat from a wave along the warm front early Wednesday. Strong gusty winds all day Thursday then sleet or snow possible (1-3 inches n MD and s PA) with the trailing wave on Friday. 

In like a lion anyway. 

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27 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Bit of a difference Saturday morning between the ECMWF and the GFS.  The GFS is downright cold...850s at -16, temp in the low 20s and wind chills in the single digits.  Euro has lighter winds and temps in the mid-20s.  Will be interesting to see how the plant life responds.

 I hope we kill off every stink bug and kudzu bug in existence. Oh and wasps. Them too

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4 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

 I hope we kill off every stink bug and kudzu bug in existence. Oh and wasps. Them too

I got lit up by two wasps last year on two separate occasions. It had been many years since I had been stung by a wasp.  I get stung by yellow jackets on a regular basis.  Not really a big deal.  But a paper wasp?  Oh, yeah.  That's pain you don't forget about for a while.

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OK, number crunching time for the end of month stuff

Average high was 55.4 degrees, three new record high temps recorded for month, 70.3 degrees on 8th, 72.5 degrees on 13th which was also high for month and 67.6 degrees on 21st. This is a +8.7 above average of 46.7 degrees, and sets a new record beating 1990's mark of 55.1 degrees. Average low was 29.7 degrees, a +6.2 above average for the month, lowest temp for month was 14.9 degrees on 4th. Average temp for month of 42.6 degrees was a +7.5 above average and just missed beating the record of 42.8 degrees set in 1990. 0.67 inches of rain for the month, again just missing a record set in 2002 of 0.69 inches and 1.92 inches below the normal of 2.59 inches. Largest rainfall was 0.32 inches on 9th, I had 5 days of measurable rainfall and 7 days of T's. Snowfall for the month was a T, which happened on 4 separate days. This ties the record, again set in 1990 of a T of snowfall, average for the month is 4.4 inches, which is my current total for the entire year. 

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