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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Decent sun here...hoping we can get some more substantial clearing regionwide.  The low level clouds are racing pretty good so it doesn't seem like it will take too much to tap that.  Really have a good feeling about today.

Well if YOU'RE bullish - somebody is getting rekt today

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1300 SPC OTLK is yummy :) 2/15/15 now for our region

Quote

..CENTRAL/EASTERN NY TO NORTH CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG  

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL NY AND EASTERN PA SOUTHWARD  

ACROSS VA INTO AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL NC. WARMER SURFACE  

TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH (70S FROM VA INTO NC) AND BOUNDARY LAYER  

DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WILL DRIVE WEAK-MODERATE  

SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY (MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG), ALONG WITH STEEP  

LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS THERMODYNAMIC REGIME WILL AID IN  

DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN ORGANIZED  

LINE SEGMENTS. ADDITIONALLY, SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE  

POSSIBLE GIVEN SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50  

KT, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE PRESENCE OF  

LINGERING STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SEASONABLY COOL MIDLEVEL  

TEMPERATURES (NEAR -17 C AT 500 MB).



 
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6 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

The biggest thing for me is lightning and thunder. Lemme see some of that and we can chalk this up as a W.

 

  HRRR lightning signal looks pretty solid.     The HRRR overall is pretty interesting.   It has more of a broken squall line look with some embedded "interesting" cells.   As others have noted, while the location jumps, most runs have some nice updraft helicity signals.    Kinda think that the TOR threat is somewhat low due to higher LCLs, but a few supercells dropping big hail could be in play.

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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

  HRRR lightning signal looks pretty solid.     The HRRR overall is pretty interesting.   It has more of a broken squall line look with some embedded "interesting" cells.   As others have noted, while the location jumps, most runs have some nice updraft helicity signals.    Kinda think that the TOR threat is somewhat low due to higher LCLs, but a few supercells dropping big hail could be in play.

Curious, how do you know the lightning signal is good? What should I be looking at?

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1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Curious, how do you know the lightning signal is good? What should I be looking at?

 

   go to the mag.ncep.noaa.gov   page     and select HRRR and then EAST-US.    There's a lightning parameter which is a flash rate.   Anything above the lightest shading of blue generally correlates well with a threat for lightning and thunder.

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15 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

  HRRR lightning signal looks pretty solid.     The HRRR overall is pretty interesting.   It has more of a broken squall line look with some embedded "interesting" cells.   As others have noted, while the location jumps, most runs have some nice updraft helicity signals.    Kinda think that the TOR threat is somewhat low due to higher LCLs, but a few supercells dropping big hail could be in play.

Thinking at the start of the supercells, if any, may drop a tor or two early

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2017  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...MARYLAND...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA AND  
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE   
  
VALID 251724Z - 251930Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOCALLY DAMAGING  
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. A WATCH  
MAY BE NEEDED IF IT IS CLEAR STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.  
  
DISCUSSION...RAPID SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD  
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM NORTHWESTERN VA INTO WESTERN  
NC AS OF 17Z. DEWPOINTS WERE HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S  
SUGGESTING A WELL-MIXED AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MUCAPE TO  
AROUND 1000 J/KG.  
  
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY FORMING  
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE FRONT, AND A GENERAL UPWARD TREND  
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. BY 18-19Z,  
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. WIND PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO  
STRENGTHEN, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, WITH LONG  
HODOGRAPHS FAVORING LONG-LIVED STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE  
THE MAIN THREAT WITH A BROKEN LINE OF CELLS OR SMALL BOWS. THE COLD  
AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WOULD SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF HAIL.  
HOWEVER, A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER EXISTS ABOVE 700 MB, AND UPDRAFTS  
MAY STRUGGLE. AS A RESULT OF THIS WARM LAYER, STORMS MAY BE SLOW TO  
BECOME SEVERE, BUT WITH TIME, LONG-ACTING SHEAR MAY OVERCOME THIS,  
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN VA INTO MD, AND NORTHEASTERN NC LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
  
THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD  
REMAIN CELLULAR, AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS IN THE SUFFICIENT CATEGORY  
WITH 0-1 SRH NEAR 100 M2/S2, STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE A  
DETRIMENT, AS WILL BE THE WARM LAYER ALOFT HAMPERING VERTICAL  
UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS IN THE LOWER PARTS OF THE STORM.  
  
..JEWELL/HART.. 02/25/2017  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
  
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...  

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