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Eskimo Joe

February banter thread

1,304 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

That's funny, my main worry about rural areas is the crime.  Prefer not to have some meth-head/opiod addict breaking into my house.  I like that my house is surrounded by neighbors that either work from home or are retired and keep an eye out.

You are more concerned about crime in rural areas than DC / Balt / insert any other urban area in the world?  

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Just went and double-checked my memory with the 2013/14 totals thread --- looks like Baltimore people on this board had about 6 inches with that storm. I saw 8-10 inch totals in the Rockville/DC Burbs.

And, no, I don't consider a six inch storm remotely close to historic - even for mid-March.

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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Didn't people get 12-18 in mid March? What's historic in March?

I'd say 15"+ in March is historic. I wouldn't really lower the criteria that much since many huge storms have happened historically.

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11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Just went and double-checked my memory with the 2013/14 totals thread --- looks like Baltimore people on this board had about 6 inches with that storm. I saw 8-10 inch totals in the Rockville/DC Burbs.

And, no, I don't consider a six inch storm remotely close to historic - even for mid-March.

Heh, I thought we got more. Totally agree, unless it's April, that kind of snowfall won't cut it as historic.

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10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Heh, I thought we got more. Totally agree, unless it's April, that kind of snowfall won't cut it as historic.

Historic vs. rare is a tough debate. I'd argue that it was rare but not historic, although there is definitely overlap. 

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1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

That wasn't historic.

That was my second biggest storm (7") since moving here, other than the HECS last year. To get those kind of totals in mid-March in southern MD is borderline historic in my opinion.

Even if you don't consider that storm historic, the month itself has to be. I had four accumulating events in March- I don't think I'll ever see that here again in my lifetime. In fact, if it wasn't for March, the 13/14 winter kinda sucked IMBY.

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46 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

You are more concerned about crime in rural areas than DC / Balt / insert any other urban area in the world?  

You have to remember that it is all about rates.  There is more crime in cities, but there are more people.  Your individual chances of being a victim depend on that ratio.  I guess looking at the stats I should be equally as concerned.  My in-laws moved to the Amissville area which is one of the most rural parts of the northern half of VA and one of the safest.  The rate of violent crime there is 1 in 1800 (probably depends some on data source, but I'm not writing a thesis here).  The rate in my "zone" is 1 in 700 which is closer to Stephens City and much better than the crime-ridden hellhole that is Winchester.  But my zone also includes some heavily immigrant areas where there is more crime.  Taking the neighboring zone (Vienna) where the demographics are similar to my neighborhood and the rate is 1 in 1700, pretty much exactly the safe, rural rate.  So, given the same chance of being a victim of violent crime, I am more inclined to feel safe in a neighborhood with a number of people around than isolated out in a rural area.  I guess that is my take on the issue.

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Have a friend coming to town in late July and wants to go to a Nats game.  I hate the heat so I was checking my station records.  2011 on that date, highest temp I've recorded.  2014 on that date - 74 for a high.  I'm really hoping for a 2004/2009/2014 type of summer.

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48 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

You have to remember that it is all about rates.  There is more crime in cities, but there are more people.  Your individual chances of being a victim depend on that ratio.  I guess looking at the stats I should be equally as concerned.  My in-laws moved to the Amissville area which is one of the most rural parts of the northern half of VA and one of the safest.  The rate of violent crime there is 1 in 1800 (probably depends some on data source, but I'm not writing a thesis here).  The rate in my "zone" is 1 in 700 which is closer to Stephens City and much better than the crime-ridden hellhole that is Winchester.  But my zone also includes some heavily immigrant areas where there is more crime.  Taking the neighboring zone (Vienna) where the demographics are similar to my neighborhood and the rate is 1 in 1700, pretty much exactly the safe, rural rate.  So, given the same chance of being a victim of violent crime, I am more inclined to feel safe in a neighborhood with a number of people around than isolated out in a rural area.  I guess that is my take on the issue.

The city does seem to have a lot of crime for whatever reason.  I think Winchester must be some type of drug hub.

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

You have to remember that it is all about rates.  There is more crime in cities, but there are more people.  Your individual chances of being a victim depend on that ratio.  I guess looking at the stats I should be equally as concerned.  My in-laws moved to the Amissville area which is one of the most rural parts of the northern half of VA and one of the safest.  The rate of violent crime there is 1 in 1800 (probably depends some on data source, but I'm not writing a thesis here).  The rate in my "zone" is 1 in 700 which is closer to Stephens City and much better than the crime-ridden hellhole that is Winchester.  But my zone also includes some heavily immigrant areas where there is more crime.  Taking the neighboring zone (Vienna) where the demographics are similar to my neighborhood and the rate is 1 in 1700, pretty much exactly the safe, rural rate.  So, given the same chance of being a victim of violent crime, I am more inclined to feel safe in a neighborhood with a number of people around than isolated out in a rural area.  I guess that is my take on the issue.

All in perception I suppose.  I feel safer where there are less people.  I was never really aware the Winchester had a high crime rate.  However it seems to have a sizable "immigrant" population and a couple notoriously bad sections of town, so I guess I shouldn't be too surprised, though I guess I shouldn't make assumptions as to the causes of the crime without data to back it up.  I have heard of a growing heroin problem in the Valley.  

Amissville is a wonderful area.  That entire area west on 211 is among the most beautiful in the state. 

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2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

All in perception I suppose.  I feel safer where there are less people.  I was never really aware the Winchester had a high crime rate.  However it seems to have a sizable "immigrant" population and a couple notoriously bad sections of town, so I guess I shouldn't be too surprised, though I guess I shouldn't make assumptions as to the causes of the crime without data to back it up.  I have heard of a growing heroin problem in the Valley.  

Amissville is a wonderful area.  That entire area west on 211 is among the most beautiful in the state. 

 

That area has really grown on me.  Really, wine country from Sky Meadows down to Madison Co. is nice territory. 

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I think we can all agree that March 14 and 15 were historic in the cities/burbs. Especially considering the trend the last 30 years with losing on the margins. Multiple cold snow events that require shoveling and stick around 24 hours is pretty rare for March. 

 

Unfortunately this year....as Tracker has been very cryptically hinting at lately...it's over

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I think we can all agree that March 14 and 15 were historic in the cities/burbs. Especially considering the trend the last 30 years with losing on the margins. Multiple cold snow events that require shoveling and stick around 24 hours is pretty rare for March. 

 

Unfortunately this year....as Tracker has been very cryptically hinting at lately...it's over

Rather than unfortunately, I'd say fortunately. Let's bury our dead and move on. 

Get to it, Reaper. Aka, wxwatcher.

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No way this kid is going to cancel winter on Feb 18th. I'll enjoy the warm weather for now but no doubt long range will change. Still a solid 4 weeks left to root for snow in the cities and 6 weeks up this way. It's never too late to root for a snowstorm imo. I could care less if it melts 2 days later. Wet snows are the best anyway..imho. 

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11 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Rather than unfortunately, I'd say fortunately. Let's bury our dead and move on. 

Get to it, Reaper. Aka, wxwatcher.

Yeah...

The day of reaping has finally arrived...

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

No way this kid is going to cancel winter on Feb 18th. I'll enjoy the warm weather for now but no doubt long range will change. Still a solid 4 weeks left to root for snow in the cities and 6 weeks up this way. It's never too late to root for a snowstorm imo. I could care less if it melts 2 days later. Wet snows are the best anyway..imho. 

Yep, too soon to say difinitively it's over, at least around here.  A quick shot of cold air, a little wet storm running along the southern periphery and we have a nice 6 incher or more out of the blue.

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