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Tn Valley Severe Weather 2017


jaxjagman

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Not to worry, I wouldn't jump on anyone in our sub-forum like that. In reality I was probably too jacked up on Harvey emotions, looking for a winter escape. You know how I roll. I welcome newbies; I'm patient explaining stuff; and, I'm the first to concede I learn micro-climates from you guys. 

OK our friends at SPC just dropped ENH in Mississippi for today, Wednesday. TOR box probs 60/30, wow. They are talking about ENH for tornadoes in the heart of the Tennessee Valley Thursday. We'll see how today goes. Also if that surface low really deepens again as it goes extra-tropical, Thursday evening could get quite interesting.

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48 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Not to worry, I wouldn't jump on anyone in our sub-forum like that. In reality I was probably too jacked up on Harvey emotions, looking for a winter escape. You know how I roll. I welcome newbies; I'm patient explaining stuff; and, I'm the first to concede I learn micro-climates from you guys. 

OK our friends at SPC just dropped ENH in Mississippi for today, Wednesday. TOR box probs 60/30, wow. They are talking about ENH for tornadoes in the heart of the Tennessee Valley Thursday. We'll see how today goes. Also if that surface low really deepens again as it goes extra-tropical, Thursday evening could get quite interesting.

Hey man, I hope you know that I was totally joking.  LOL.  You know this...but you always bring great info to the board.  And yes, you are always understanding when it comes to all of us amateur  weather hobby folks.  If you ever feel like you are going astray, you can always following the example that Jax and I set last winter.  We are all about harmony.  :D 

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The 00z NAM and 00z 3km NAM show that areas of MS/AL/TN will have extremely unusual supercell parameters and tornado parameters for this time of year. The only way to get STP=1 to 2 at this time of year is with a tropical cyclone, with these areas.  I think a few tornadoes and wind damage reports will happen in the slight risk area. The 00z convection-allowing models all have discrete convection. I certainly hope that Harvey doesn't hurt any more people!

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Florence to Athens, Alabama is the chase target. Area is relatively flat and is mostly agricultural land use. Action may start near Corinth, Miss but the terrain is horrendous that way.

Quasi-boundary is lifting north. HRRR storms around 18Z on Tenn border appear to be elevated and/or with something in the mid-levels. Low level boundary interactions appear better later in the above target area. Wind shear will rapidly increase as remnants come out of Mississippi. 

Safety is paramount here with the high flash flood risk. Just saw a total solar eclipse! I know to quit when I'm ahead so will chase with great caution today.

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1 minute ago, nrgjeff said:

Florence to Athens, Alabama is the chase target. Area is relatively flat and is mostly agricultural land use. Action may start near Corinth, Miss but the terrain is horrendous that way.

Quasi-boundary is lifting north. HRRR storms around 18Z on Tenn border appear to be with something in the mid-levels. Low level boundary interactions appear better later in the above target area. Wind shear will rapidly increase as remnants come out of Mississippi. 

Safety is paramount here with the high flash flood risk. Just saw a total solar eclipse! I know to quit when I'm ahead so will chase with great caution today.

I'm thinking about going to go to my house in Lawrenceburg later on.Not sure though if it's worth the drive though

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 476
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northern and western Alabama
     Northeast Mississippi
     Southwest Tennessee

   * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1115 AM until
     800 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Arcing bands of showers and storms will pose a risk for
   brief tornadoes this afternoon into early evening.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
   either side of a line from 60 miles north of Oxford MS to 55 miles
   southeast of Tuscaloosa AL. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
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Documented a tornado between the Winfield AL and Yamperton AL exits on I-22 Thursday August 31 about 4:45 pm Central. First pic was right after stopping. Second is poking my phone outside the car. Third is after catching my breath and getting into proper position. Yeah, it was a day!

Flat Ag area from Florence to Athens had to be punted due to the meteorology. UAH SWIRLL and BMX/Columbus AFB both released special 18Z RAOBs. Former had great upper winds with a stiff LLJ. Latter had upper winds still good but a really robust LLJ. Great to stop at the SWIRLL, check data, and see friends.

Rolled out toward the Shoals and then turned southwest toward Tupelo but the Mississippi storms started to slop out. Pro Tip: Just chase Bama. Quasi-traditional supercells started up in the Reform to Fayette, AL areas. Confirmed tornadoes in progress, but I was back on the MS/AL border with no chance to get ahead. Plan B let them cross I-22 first.

Toward I-22 mile marker 20 the clouds lower and darken. Rain hampers visibility but no hail worries in a tropical hybrid. Toward mm 24 I sense I have reached the cell I'm after vs slopvection. Data is good, but no substitute for experience. Approaching mm 26 I see a vertical scud curtain at about 1:00 in front of me. Slow down out of caution here. Leaves and twigs start falling out of the sky, not blowing sideways. Falling debris signals trouble is near. I stop. Surface wind shifts out of the north as the tornado crosses I-22 a couple miles ahead of me. Check spray off top of truck in pic 2. Twister appears to be leaning over and perhaps dissipating, a blessing for those oblivious drivers on I-22. Stop at mm 30 gas station and they tell a similar story. I'm on the correct side of the storm now. Looks great, but going into jungle. I head home via Birmingham. It's not a total eclipse, but a good day.

Thank You God for the spectacle, for seeing good friends, and for my safe return home.

Interstate_intruder.thumb.jpg.edd45d257a5bf7eae6a144bd1a913feb.jpg

I-22_hwy44_AL.thumb.jpg.1b927592ec002bcd128e7997204c72b1.jpg

Proper_position.thumb.jpg.f95b657d0f22b8b01be95a22ce0e61d0.jpg

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  • 2 months later...
 Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0634 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

   Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE TN
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts, marginal hail, or a
   brief tornado will be possible, mainly this afternoon across parts
   of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions.

   ...OH/TN Valley regions through late evening...
   A surface cyclone in MO this morning will deepen while moving
   east-northeastward across the OH Valley to the lower Great Lakes by
   tonight, in advance of an amplifying midlevel shortwave trough.  An
   associated surface cold front will surge eastward from MO/AR this
   morning to the Appalachians by early tonight.  Boundary-layer
   dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a narrow corridor of weak
   buoyancy in the pre-frontal warm sector.  However, clouds will limit
   surface heating and midlevel lapse rates will weaken with eastward
   extent, limiting the degree of warm sector buoyancy.

   Ongoing elevated convection in the zone of stronger forcing for
   ascent (in advance of the surface cyclone) will persist into the
   day, with some threat for isolated large hail given the lingering
   steep lapse rate feed from the west-southwest.  Otherwise, a narrow
   band of low-topped convection should form by midday in the band of
   ascent along the cold front as ascent/moistening weakens the cap,
   and then move quickly eastward through the afternoon/evening across
   the OH/TN Valley regions.  Though buoyancy will remain weak, 50-60
   kt flow just above the surface and strong low-level shear will
   contribute to the threat for damaging winds, and perhaps an embedded
   tornado or two, with the forced band of convection.  The threat for
   damaging winds should diminish by late evening as the cold front
   overturns the remaining weakly unstable warm sector.

   ..Thompson/Peters.. 11/18/2017
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2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Line looks like it could be fairly potent,haven't had a good t-storm in some time:lightning:

pivotalweather   NAM 3km CONUS   Reflectivity  UH 25 for Sun 2017 11 19 00z.png

 

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Line looks like it could be fairly potent,haven't had a good t-storm in some time:lightning:

pivotalweather   NAM 3km CONUS   Reflectivity  UH 25 for Sun 2017 11 19 00z.png

The Wind is really starting to pickup here in west TN.  We have a high temp of 79 today with a low temp of 35 tonight.  It's gonna be an interesting day!!

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Think it was mostly straight line winds.Seen the news in Joelton where some trees were blown down in the same direction and a steep roof was blown off one side and the other side was still intact.Some good wind though looking at the video around that area where you could see the bark peeled off some trees.

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