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Tn Valley Severe Weather 2017


jaxjagman

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Euro shows another system today coming off China today maybe into the Yellow Sea by day 10.Pattern continues it seems just like the energizer bunny,it keeps on and on and on with a ridge behind it and another trough to follow.This system though don't looked as suppressed as the others with more serperation?Not sure,it'd be a severe threat around the 10-11th of the month i believe.

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Nice,850mb winds least if not severe brings some good rain potential into the Mid Valley(Monday after next so its gonna be wrong..lol).Don't want to get in any stinkin drought into summer,this would go west to east not as strong though but at least over 50 kts to the east Valley by the looks,who knows if it will be right,but it's a enjoyable sight to me compared to the last couple years,bring the rain on

AccuWeather.com® Professional   Forecast Models.png

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Best updrafts are right now west of Nashville,though there is some updrafts further east of the enhamcedl risk area,severe threat looks like now in the Western Valley west of Nashville,though there could be some severe storms further east in the slight risk area in the Md Valley

 

 

 ...portions of the OH-TN-MS Valleys...
   Low-level moisture will return north into the Mid South and OH
   Valley within a WAA regime associated with a 35-kt LLJ during the
   morning.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
   near the MS river at daybreak and move downstream into TN and the
   lower OH Valley.  There is some uncertainty regarding the magnitude
   of destabilization farther north near the OH River where clouds and
   early-day convection may limit destabilization.  Nonetheless, models
   show a plume of upper 50s dewpoints near the OH River to the low-mid
   60s in the MS Delta.  The increasing moisture coupled with diurnal
   destabilization south and west of early activity will probably
   result in 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid afternoon with
   weak buoyancy forecast farther north near the OH River.  Forcing for
   ascent provided by the mid-level wave in conjunction with
   convergence along the surface boundary over eastern AR northward to
   the OH-MS River confluence will likely serve as a focus for storm
   development during the afternoon.  Deep-layer shear is forecast to
   be strongest from TN southward into northern MS/AL with effective
   shear magnitudes 35-50 kt.  Cellular clusters of supercells and
   organized multicells are forecast with hail (perhaps very large with
   the most intense storm or two) and damaging winds the main threats. 

day1otlk_1200.gif?1490597202063

 

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 Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

   Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-SOUTH TO
   CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE TN...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER OH VALLEY TO
   CENTRAL MS/AL...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDDLE OH VALLEY
   TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the
   Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Tennessee Valley this
   afternoon and evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
   tornadoes will be possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough along the KS/MO border will move east to the
   Cumberland Plateau by early Tuesday. Attendant surface cyclone will
   track from the Ozark Plateau into the Middle OH Valley, weakening
   late in the period. A cold front will shift east across the
   Mid-South this afternoon with trailing portion stalling tonight over
   the Lower MS Valley.

   ...Lower MS/OH and TN Valleys...
   Two storm clusters are ongoing across southern IL/western KY and
   separately over northwest AR. The 27/00Z WRF-NSSL and HRW-ARW appear
   to have the best reflection of these clusters compared to other
   CAMs. The eastern cluster should slow destabilization north of the
   OH River today where surface dew points are predominately in the 40s
   as of 12Z. Meanwhile, low-level moisture will continue to advect
   northeast ahead of the northwest AR cluster into the Mid-South
   within a broad 30-40 kt LLJ. This should result in a plume of lower
   60s surface dew points nosing towards the MS/OH River confluence,
   with middle 60s maintained across the Lower MS Valley. The
   increasing moisture coupled with diurnal destabilization will likely
   result in MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg developing by mid afternoon.
   Low-level WAA ahead of the AR cluster in conjunction with
   convergence along the impinging cold front should serve as a focus
   for increasing afternoon storm development. 

   With effective shear magnitudes of 35-45 kt, several supercells are
   anticipated, especially with southern extent in the open warm
   sector. Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and isolated damaging winds
   are most probable with this activity centered on the Mid-South. Some
   of the hail may be significantly severe owing to steep mid-level
   lapse rates sampled by 12Z Jackson, Shreveport, and Little Rock
   RAOBs. A few of these supercells will likely organize into one or
   more east-moving line segments axis, with damaging winds becoming
   the predominant hazard towards middle TN/central KY/northwest AL.

   Farther south into central portions of MS/AL, weak 500-mb height
   falls during the day coupled with heating and weakening convective
   inhibition should result in at least isolated storms developing
   within confluence bands in the absence of any well-defined boundary.
   A risk for hail and wind damage should accompany the stronger
   storms.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 03/27/2017
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Sometimes, it just seems like when there's a system capable of producing severe storms to the west of the eastern valley, Gandolf is standing on the Cumberland Plateau and shouting "You shall not pass!!!"

Jokes aside, it's intrigues me how the eastern valley sees very little widespread severe thunderstorms.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

   Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   MID-SOUTH AND TN RIVER VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
   MS/AL TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   MIDDLE OH VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the
   Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Tennessee Valley this
   afternoon and evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
   tornadoes will be possible.

   ...Lower Ohio/Mississippi River Valleys and Tennessee Valley...
   A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern MO late this
   morning will continue generally eastward and reach the middle OH
   River Valley by late tonight. A preceding belt of 40-50 kt
   west-southwesterly mid level winds will continue to overspread an
   increasingly moist, albeit modestly so, warm sector. Ahead of an
   eastward-moving cold front currently across the Ozarks and
   Ark-La-Tex, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints will continue
   to become increasingly common across eastern AR, northern MS into
   western TN, northward into western KY. While warm-sector cloud cover
   has remained semi-prevalent thus far, some cloud breaks are noted in
   visible satellite imagery an additional thinning seems likely in
   concert especially with the eastward-spread mid/high-level dry slot
   as per water vapor satellite imagery.

   Linearly organized convection across far northeast AR/far southeast
   MO late this morning should continue to spread east-northeastward
   and increase in coverage/intensify into northwest TN and
   western/central KY as the downstream air mass continues to moisten
   and destabilize. This activity will pose a damaging wind and severe
   hail risk, although a tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther south,
   other initially more discrete storms should develop within the warm
   sector this afternoon across additional portions of TN, far eastern
   AR, northern MS and eventually northwest AL later this
   afternoon/evening. Here, supercell-favorable wind profiles and steep
   mid-level lapse rates as noted per 12Z observed soundings will
   support large hail potential. A few tornadoes also appear possible,
   particularly around mid/late afternoon into early evening across
   western/middle portions of TN and northern MS and northwest AL. In
   this corridor, a modest westerly component of the mid-level winds
   will coincide with modestly strong low-level shear/SRH.

   ..Guyer/Mosier.. 03/27/2017
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 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 89
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1205 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Eastern Arkansas
     Western Kentucky
     Missouri Bootheel
     Northern Mississippi
     Western Tennessee

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until
     800 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop within an
   increase moist and unstable air mass across the region. Mostly
   linear bands of severe thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward
   across northwest Tennessee into west-central Kentucky, while more
   isolated storms are expected across northern Mississippi into
   west-central Tennessee. Large hail and damaging winds can be
   expected, and at least some tornado risk could gradually increase
   through the afternoon.
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Northern Mississippi supercell. Impressive potential for damaging hail

----

* At 108 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Canaan, or 12
  miles northwest of Ripley, moving east at 40 mph.

  This is a very dangerous storm.

  HAZARD...Baseball size hail.

  SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   WEST TN...EASTERN AR...AND NORTHERN MS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday from parts of the
   middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley.

   ...Lower/Mid MS Valley into TN Valley...
   A strong upper trough will continue moving eastward across the
   southern Plains and into the mid/lower MS valley on Thursday. 
   Thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon along/ahead
   of the cold front/dryline over AR/LA and track eastward into MS/TN. 
   Forecast soundings indicate the potential for strong CAPE ahead of
   the front, along with favorable shear profiles for organized/severe
   storms.  Model solutions are quite consistent on the position of
   main trough axis, but the details of shortwave timing/locations are
   quite diverse.  Nevertheless, a consensus of guidance provides
   sufficient confidence to upgrade a portion of western TN, eastern
   AR, and northern MS to an ENH risk for Thursday.

Storm Prediction Center Mar 28  2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.png

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Sad news in the storm chasing world today. :cry: Three storm chasers were killed in a violent intersection crash that took place about 3 miles west of Spur, Texas at 3:30 P.M. Central time. Here is an article on it.- http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/three-storm-chasers-die-in-car-crash-on-tuesday-afternoon/70001248 Two of the chasers were very well known, Kelley Williamson and Randy Yarnall were well known storm chasers who worked for TWC bringing live on sight severe storm coverage to the many people at home. Of those also lost Corbin Jaegar was also killed in the collision who was also storm chasing. This personally hurt a lot as I typically watched Kelleys livestreams a lot. Any way I got onto his Youtube channel to see if he was covering the severe weather in Texas when I noticed the video seemed cut short I skipped to the end to see the video and the audio and video blanked out before an intersection. I figured out a few minutes later they had passed. We never know when our time will come but we should not live our lives in fear I suppose. They will be missed by many thousands of people including myself personally, let them rest in peace, and who knows perhaps they are up there storm chasing with the angels! I apologize if this is off-topic but I felt it was right I mentioned it.

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5 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

Sad news in the storm chasing world today. :cry: Three storm chasers were killed in a violent intersection crash that took place about 3 miles west of Spur, Texas at 3:30 P.M. Central time. Here is an article on it.- http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/three-storm-chasers-die-in-car-crash-on-tuesday-afternoon/70001248 Two of the chasers were very well known, Kelley Williamson and Randy Yarnall were well known storm chasers who worked for TWC bringing live on sight severe storm coverage to the many people at home. Of those also lost Corbin Jaegar was also killed in the collision who was also storm chasing. This personally hurt a lot as I typically watched Kelleys livestreams a lot. Any way I got onto his Youtube channel to see if he was covering the severe weather in Texas when I noticed the video seemed cut short I skipped to the end to see the video and the audio and video blanked out before an intersection. I figured out a few minutes later they had passed. We never know when our time will come but we should not live our lives in fear I suppose. They will be missed by many thousands of people including myself personally, let them rest in peace, and who knows perhaps they are up there storm chasing with the angels! I apologize if this is off-topic but I felt it was right I mentioned it.

It's not an off topic to me.I always enjoyed watching KW in a chase.Sad news :(

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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE
   TN...NORTHWEST AL...AND SOUTHWEST KY...

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   CENTRAL MS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
   LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEYS...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
   LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEYS...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An active severe weather event is forecast for Thursday over parts
   of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
   Valley.

   ...Northern MS/Northwest AL/Western and Middle TN/Southwest KY...
   A strong upper trough will rotate across the southern/central Plains
   today, and into the lower/mid MS Valley on Thursday.  Models suggest
   that thunderstorm activity from the Day1 period will be waning in
   most areas by Thursday morning, while the primary cold front remains
   over central AR/LA.  This should allow for some heating and
   destabilization to occur ahead of the front, with re-development of
   thunderstorms during the afternoon near the MS River.  A strong
   mid-level speed max (50+ knots at 700mb) will rotate across the cold
   front during the afternoon, promoting strong low-level and deep
   layer vertical shear profiles.  Forecast soundings show 0-3km SRH
   values of 200-300 m2/s2 and MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg.  Several 00z cam
   solutions that extend into the Day2 period indicate discrete
   supercell mode will be preferred with the activity, suggesting a
   favorable environment for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
    Strong tornadoes and very large hail will be possible in the MDT
   risk area.  The eastward extent of low level moisture will be a
   limiting factor to how far east the significant severe threat will
   develop.  Nevertheless, strong to severe storms may reach eastern
   KY/TN and parts of AL during the evening.

   ...MO/IL/IN...
   It appears the risk for severe storms will also extend northward
   into parts of MO/IL/IN during the day as activity blossoms ahead of
   the approaching shortwave trough.  This area will likely experience
   more cloud cover on Thursday, limiting the confidence in sufficient
   instability.  Nevertheless, hail and damaging wind will be possible
   in the stronger cells.

Storm Prediction Center Mar 29  2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook.png

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 Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
   KENTUCKY...

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
   MISSISSIPPI NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
   VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND
   OHIO VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms potentially capable of damaging winds, isolated
   tornadoes, and hail are forecast on Thursday over parts of the
   middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee
   Valleys.

   ...Middle and lower MS Valley eastward into the TN and OH Valleys...

   Complex forecast for Thursday with considerable uncertainty
   regarding specific details of the overall forecast scenario owing in
   part to prior thunderstorm activity on Wednesday and Wednesday night
   through early Thursday.  Some model solutions exhibit favorable
   buoyancy/shear for the possible development of significant severe
   thunderstorms during peak heating while other solutions suggest a
   more mesoscale-dependent severe risk to develop within the area
   generally defined within the 30% severe probabilities (category 3
   risk).  Early-day clouds/thunderstorm activity will likely modulate
   both low-level moisture and 700-500mb lapse rates across the MS
   Valley.  This is reflected in the variability of the most recent
   model guidance with the NAM implying intense storms redeveloping
   across the northern half of MS northward into the lower OH Valley. 
   This is in contrast to the latest GFS and ECMWF models showing
   widespread thunderstorms in a band during the morning near the MS
   River moving east with little recovery/destabilization expected in
   its wake.  Yet, some cooling aloft in association with the
   approaching mid-level low/cold pocket will contribute to
   destabilization, in addition to surface heating during the day in
   wake of early-day clouds/thunderstorms.  A cold front is forecast to
   slowly progress across the MS Valley and serve as a focus for
   renewed thunderstorm development, perhaps as early as midday.  As
   previously described, considerable variability in the magnitude of
   buoyancy is depicted in model guidance.  Nonetheless, upwards of
   500-1500 J/kg is forecast within an area of strong cyclonically
   curved 500-mb flow.  Forecast soundings show strong effective shear
   (40-60 kt) which will likely result in storm organization and an
   attendant risk for wind damage.  The strength of the low-level shear
   will conditionally augment a tornado risk for any mature supercells
   or mesovortices in a squall line.  Hail will be possible both near
   the cold pocket with strong updrafts and in areas where mid-level
   lapse rates are less convectively contaminated.  The broken bands of
   storms will move east in eastern parts of KY/TN and the eastern
   portions of the central Gulf Coast during the evening and overnight
   with a gradual weakening in storm intensity and expected severe
   coverage.
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