Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,495
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Mary M
    Newest Member
    Mary M
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Typhoon Tip

Model Mayhem IV!

Recommended Posts

Serious question:

Is there anything that can actual continue to force this thing south of us?

Im just trying to determine what needs to happen to get a decent snow event here.

It seems to me that it needs to be south and develop earlier 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Hazey said:

GFSGW here. That's a 20" over my fanny. Normally I would laugh it off but it's been eerily consistent with that max zone. Hard to ignore no matter how ridiculous it looks.

I think your in a great spot for that one, no matter what little jogs it makes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's a step in the right direction, to answer winter wolf and tblizz's question. But it needs some work for a snow event. It's tougher for CT as them being further S and W hurt. Interior CT could get some mix from the first deal Sunday night. I think we want that ULL in the southwest to stay further west. This helps allow that beast of a s/w to dig. And obviously you want guidance to trend better with that s\W too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a step in the right direction, to answer winter wolf and tblizz's question. But it needs some work for a snow event. It's tougher for CT as them being further S and W hurt. Interior CT could get some mix from the first deal Sunday night. I think we want that ULL in the southwest to stay further west. This helps allow that beast of a s/w to dig. And obviously you want guidance to trend better with that s\W too.

Thank you for the clarifications Scott.  Now  "Let her DIG!!"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I actually liked 12z better.

This one starts off digging more than 12z, but it is a bit more progressive. It's pretty cold though...its mostly snow for SNE north of the pike and away from the coast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Coastal SNE does get good backlash snows as the ULL deepens insanely...probably several inches.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Coastal SNE does get good backlash snows as the ULL deepens insanely...probably several inches.

I like it but we have some work to do. Seems probable that interior sees good snowfall. Coastal sections are still up in the air. 

Mid levels aren't exactly traditional for SNE heavy snow. Maybe we can get it to trend toward a better look.

Obviously we have the wraparound you mentioned but I have concerns about surface temps here. That low gets going on euro but a due east wind at the coast until it deepens. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, dryslot said:

There is BL issues over the SE areas into SCT, Jimmy's geography is bad, Its snow from NCT, Berks north into Vt and east into Maine

I love storms that taint up to Kevin.

4 hours ago, Bostonseminole said:

996 east of the cape.. still BL issues but too early to worry?

Too late a stall for those in SWNE.  Eastern areas--primarily in NH and ME FTW.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, I didn't know any information whether its missed or not is worth a whole page of reaction.  I was wrong the NAM wasn't cold enough for the coast or most of SNE.  Sorry I said that.  Man.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will and others similar to him can critique me...

Thought euro ensembles looked better than the op. Looks like secondary surface low is south of op. The midlevels would suggest plowable. Closed 5h off the Cape.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Will and others similar to him can critique me...

Thought euro ensembles looked better than the op. Looks like secondary surface low is south of op. The midlevels would suggest plowable. Closed 5h off the Cape.

While one could never compare me to Will, I definitely agree with you :P 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Does the long range like day 10 and onwards look as bad and torched as the Euro op would have you believe was setting up day 10?

Relatively short lived-based on what happens between now and then I suspect your pack will easily survive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So there are some under the radar things going on. After tomorrow's clipper we get a cold tuck. Meso low develops in the GOM and sets the stage for some snow as it throws back NE winds to the coast on Sunday. Then, a system moves in like a SWFE and causes snow ormix to break out inland and close to BOS. The question then is how fast does that low bomb out as the very strong s/w moves in. I think ern MA coast may get some reach around from that as it nukes south of PWM. Obviously the Maine coast near Dryslot is under the gun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

I love storms that taint up to Kevin.

Too late a stall for those in SWNE.  Eastern areas--primarily in NH and ME FTW.

Pit 2 looks like a good spot for Monday 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So there are some under the radar things going on. After tomorrow's clipper we get a cold tuck. Meso low develops in the GOM and sets the stage for some snow as it throws back NE winds to the coast on Sunday. Then, a system moves in like a SWFE and causes snow ormix to break out inland and close to BOS. The question then is how fast does that low bomb out as the very strong s/w moves in. I think ern MA coast may get some reach around from that as it nukes south of PWM. Obviously the Maine coast near Dryslot is under the gun.

Did you see ens

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not good to see the euro take a step backwards at tgus juncture.

I don't think it did? The ensembles looked pretty good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not good to see the euro take a step backwards at tgus juncture.

I hear ya, but the s/w is still offshore. There's plenty of time to see this trend toward faster development.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×