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Model Mayhem IV!


Typhoon Tip

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

H5 needs one more s tic for me, and two for the majority of the region.

I agree this run doesnt really get it done. I was more referencing 5H was further south than the 12z run. Euro is still quicker to develop and further south. 18z definitely sped things up a bit and is closer to the euro 5H depiction @ 12z monday than the 12z run was ...semantics at this point tough, I am more interested in seeing the 00z runs

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29 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

I agree this run doesnt really get it done. I was more referencing 5H was further south than the 12z run. Euro is still quicker to develop and further south. 18z definitely sped things up a bit and is closer to the euro 5H depiction @ 12z monday than the 12z run was ...semantics at this point tough, I am more interested in seeing the 00z runs

So am I, Until 12z

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This storm has my attention.  Rapid cyclogenesis occurring amidst a closed upper level low, ideal for a major to monster snowstorm, also totals will likely be much higher in a given location as storm stalls and loops on the models, even the GFS closes off at H5 and causes surface low pressure to drop like a rock.  GFS and EURO similar in strength but different in location, for a full latitude bomb and blizzard to impact all of SNE we want the storm further south, closer to Nantucket or the benchmark rather than Provincetown location.  I think we can get it done with a -NAO/-AO/+PNA regime with a favorable MJO.

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2 minutes ago, nutmegfriar said:

And it was the Lindsay Snowstorm in New York City

Nope. It was the storm after the Lindsey snowstorm. The Lindsey snowstorm was on this date in 1969-- two feet of wet snow in the Boston Suburbs; 50 mph+ gales. The 100 hour storm brought a then record total to Boston, and inundated much of New England, though gentler with the winds.

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