Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 It is warmer Tip but not by much, it still is high impact NCT North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Someone asked about total snowfall on 12Z Euro. Looks like the 2" line goes from about Hartford to Providence to Plymouth. General 2-4" for Mass. Few 6" spots in the Berkshires and SW NH. By the way I subscribed to Weatherbell last year. Great site. Love the Euro maps. Now I don't have to constantly ask "how much in my backyard" questions.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Someone asked about total snowfall on 12Z Euro. Looks like the 2" line goes from about Hartford to Providence to Plymouth. General 2-4" for Mass. Few 6" spots in the Berkshires and SW NH. By the way I subscribed to Weatherbell last year. Great site. Love the Euro maps. Now I don't have to constantly ask "how much in my backyard" questions.... How much for Nashua? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It is warmer Tip but not by much, it still is high impact NCT North Euro 12z sfc temps / dew pts are 1 to 2 degrees colder/lower across western / northern CT Tuesday at 12z compared to 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 Tell you what ... you guys should hang hats on that frankenmodel, the GONAPS... j'k but ... last I knew it was somehow a fusion of the GGEM and NOGAPs? well, that's your warm air complete failure ice storm version there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Bulk of precip from HFD North falls as some sort of freezing stuff in initial overunning with misery mist following. Low is stronger but with a half inch less qpf, initial thump dynamics are less as pressure bombs in the St Lawrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I'm no MET...but a shift of 200 miles west and stronger, is a good recipe for a warmer overall solution for the most part. And that much of a shift(200 miles) in one run, is why this is just another one of several possibilities on the table. (pointing out the obvious there no doubt) Fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, FXWX said: Euro 12z sfc temps / dew pts are 1 to 2 degrees colder/lower across western / northern CT Tuesday at 12z compared to 00z run. This is what I was afraid of...that the higher resolution products might reveal a different BL resistance/layout... I've seen the Euro do this around this sort of 120 hour lead time range. It "polarizes" the field toward extremeness...having bigger intra-systemic temperature gradients. Frankly, the whole run appears like it could flatten out in next cycle(s) - least it wouldn't shock me. The reason for that thinking is that the whole of the circulation construct is more progressive with the western ridge being more midland in amplitude once that thing comes east. hm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, FXWX said: Euro 12z sfc temps / dew pts are 1 to 2 degrees colder/lower across western / northern CT Tuesday at 12z compared to 00z run. Yeah but the difference is dynamics all around so the result is less qpf and quicker warming to misery mist, but still a mess near the Mass border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Fact. nnaaaaah, I think that's an alternative candidate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Not about d4 but the longer range theme is better cooperation from the Atlantic which would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is what I was afraid of...that the higher resolution products might reveal a different BL resistance/layout... I've seen the Euro do this around this sort of 120 hour lead time range. It "polarizes" the field toward extremeness...having bigger intra-systemic temperature gradients. Frankly, the whole run appears like it could flatten out in next cycle(s) - least it wouldn't shock me. The reason for that thinking is that the whole of the circulation construct is more progressive with the western ridge being more midland in amplitude once that thing comes east. hm. The 500 chart is getting less wound up as we get closer...obviously there are still run to run semantic details, but we're starting to see some vort max now well SE of the main shortwave....that is always kind of a red flag for a secondary sfc reflection on the coast...a triple point anyway if not a full-on secondary. It's fighting the better forcing to the west over the midwest (as you noted...primary actually went west of 00z), but we've seen this game play out before where initially what looked like some snow/ice to a 45F rain turns into a 6-8" thump followed by glaze and dryslot with the sfc warm front never penetrating N of PVD-HVN line...12/16/07 was like that...we sort of saw more vorticity appearing in the waning days on the southeast side of the longwave trough which ended up faciliating a faster secondary reflection as the primary was ripping up into Cleveland. To a lesser extent 12/9/09 was like that too. Who knows what happens with this one...there's plenty of imperfection to overcome, but there's signs of a more wintry bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 The tenor of the season marches on. 2-4" or 3-5" of mixed frozen. Then a bit of warmth and rain. So we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The 500 chart is getting less wound up as we get closer...obviously there are still run to run semantic details, but we're starting to see some vort max now well SE of the main shortwave....that is always kind of a red flag for a secondary sfc reflection on the coast...a triple point anyway if not a full-on secondary. It's fighting the better forcing to the west over the midwest (as you noted...primary actually went west of 00z), but we've seen this game play out before where initially what looked like some snow/ice to a 45F rain turns into a 6-8" thump followed by glaze and dryslot with the sfc warm front never penetrating N of PVD-HVN line...12/16/07 was like that...we sort of saw more vorticity appearing in the waning days on the southeast side of the longwave trough which ended up faciliating a faster secondary reflection as the primary was ripping up into Cleveland. To a lesser extent 12/9/09 was like that too. Who knows what happens with this one...there's plenty of imperfection to overcome, but there's signs of a more wintry bias. Pretty much how I'm seeing things - yeah.. I just don't like the low spatial amplitude while being high wind velocity amplitude of the whole circulation from coast to coast, for bringing systems into the Lakes. Suppose it could happen that way (head scratch) but that seems physically less likely ... Yet, simultaneously we have to balance a positive NAO which isn't exactly against western turners... weird conundrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 The gist of this seems those that were forecasting snow to ice to gusts to 65 and temps in the 60's yesterday will likely bust.. and that it's turning into a moderate impact winter storm for the 6 state region with little warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The gist of this seems those that were forecasting snow to ice to gusts to 65 and temps in the 60's yesterday will likely bust.. and that it's turning into a moderate impact winter storm for the 6 state region with little warming Euro has mid 50s on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Euro has mid 50s on Wednesday. Good luck on that forecast as it's 10 degrees colder than yesterday's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Good luck on that forecast as it's 10 degrees colder than yesterday's run Actually looks warmer on Wednesday than yesterday's run. #alternatefacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Actually looks warmer on Wednesday than yesterday's run. #alternatefacts #goodluckonforecasting50'sinthissetup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: #goodluckonforecasting50'sinthissetup You're actually saying #ihopeyouarewrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: #goodluckonforecasting50'sinthissetup Good thing I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Wills secondary spinner actually is better defined today. Lots of work but lots of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 6 hours ago, dendrite said: We must have had 4 or 5 blue moons this year then. Lol. Almost as many 78's as james. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Lol. Almost as many 78's as james. I am having a blue moon right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 GFS really goes nuts with the s/w in the mid section of the country. Congrats MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 GFS also has a weak wave on front that tries to tuck behind it. That might be something to watch as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I melted already. I'm a puddle of urine but the pattern could freeze me between now and d10-12. Thereafter maybe better and more traditional snow chances but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Only place that winter is left is Northeast after day 10. We stay in our own cold corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Only place that winter is left is Northeast after day 10. We stay in our own cold corner Have to watch GOAK trough, otherwise we are mowing after President's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 GFS is def the most aggressive of all guidance in winding up the primary low out in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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