CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Looks like White Russians followed by Pina Coladas on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: Stock up on some growlers for the massive ice storm in route. Treehouse is building a massive new facility in my town of Charlton. It will be nice to be the epicenter of something other than south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like White Russians followed by Pina Coladas on the GFS. Getting there but a ton of work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Getting there but a ton of work to do. It's tough for me to see how this goes south of us. The euro did try...but this pattern would support a cutter. You'd really need that s/w to be a sheared mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 GGEM going Euro route now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 That primary needs to stay weak and strung out or its going to cut, Worst case right now is its some front end snow then a flip to mix then rain and dryslot before the front moves thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Nice little f/u wave for snow on 2/10 per CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: After BDR and GON, aren't you the next to torch in CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 His elevation hurts him in that regard..not in a good spot for ice storms when your up higher like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: His elevation hurts him in that regard..not in a good spot for ice storms when your up higher like that. It's good if he can keep the sfc reflection south of him and keep NE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Yeah elevation is usually good for ice in New England as long as winds are out of N or NE...our cold tends to max out in the 900-950mb layer so we frequently see elevation ice storms. But when you get winds out of the S or SE, that's when the valleys will keep the cold longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I guess that's what I meant ..with S or SE winds. Didn't realize those other aspects..thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Depends of the inversion level, but as Will said....roughly H95 usually.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 Weird extended range charts... GEFs PNA gone wild with +PNA ... all the way to some + 4 SD! Yet the weakening of the EPO blocking seems to be the entire impetus to the operational GFS ...(the Euro's been doing it too; although I haven't seen it's EPS family of members). It achieves some semblance of western ridging while simultaneously neutralizing any winter thickness over the lower 48 states. Damn spring like for everyone save NE ...but really weak sauce cold here though. Hmm. I dunno - I don't trust a + 4 SD PNA (+2 at CPC) any more than a frog does a scorpion to deliver laissez faire blue bird 65 F supporting thickness everywhere like that in February, and wonder when the other shoe falls. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: 12z Euro also impressive with ice signal for parts of CT, in particular Litchfield Cty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 Yeah ...compared to 00z, this Euro run appears to have bumped back west slightly with most aspects of this, and also ...appears more willing to slip the lead-side low level polar high pressure quicker toward the east. This run re-introduces more chance for at least tainted warmer air to get inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 Interesting... I thought we had more chance to go further east with everything ...namely because the western heights, post the system's ejection east, refused to bulge more. So...I was thinking that conserving longitude and being flatter with the system's total trajectory could ensue with any future corrections. The opposite is happening on this run. Head scratcher. In any event, still some early snow/mix/ice ...but it's a matter of whether transitions to more ice or just cool rains prior to main fropa. Although the Euro run would probably waft some balmy air briefly into SE zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Still flip flopping around each and every run...we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Still flip flopping around each and every run...we wait. Not that much different though so I think the theme is euro coldest and GFS warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Euro trending warmer? Suprising..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro trending warmer? Suprising..... euro snowmap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Such little posting regarding the Euro 12z run...that's how you know it was lackluster at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Euro wasn't warmer less dynamics but still an impressive thump and CAD signal, also Leon style long duration overrunning snows days 8 to 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Such little posting regarding the Euro 12z run...that's how you know it was lackluster at best. Wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro trending warmer? Suprising..... it's warmer ---.... there'll be some interpretive wrangling and spinning but, the previous solution was a little weaker and over Rochester NY; comparing, now it's a little stronger and over Detroit. the combination of (slightly west+slightly stronger)/2 = warmer for us...in terms of the total cyclone model. It also shows up as a bit less obvious triple pointing, and the appearance of almost total scouring out in the interior...say S of rt 2. Looks like they get into cloud streets and relatively mild mist for a couple hours prior to the main front. But, ...you know, 120 hours? whatever - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro wasn't warmer less dynamics but still an impressive thump and CAD signal, also Leon style long duration overrunning snows days 8 to 10 Tip says you're Wrong....It's warmer. But again..it will change in 11 hours..so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 Looks like it's coming back to earth on the extended range warming... I opined earlier that it was incongruous for a strong positive GEF's PNA (again ...not having seen the EPS - still..there is some value in cross-guidance species eval). anyway, went from a spring like taste across three cycles to la-la mix look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Tip says you're Wrong....It's warmer. But again..it will change in 11 hours..so whatever. Well wait - to be fair ... he/others may have access to finer meshed products. I'm going by the freebies at PSU E-walls on that ... and synoptically/conceptually, the low went west by a about 200 mile or so, and appeared slightly stronger surface and aloft while doing so. Given those products, that would argue warmer over all. However, there may be better resolution products that show more front side BL resistance than is readily observable given those free products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I'm no MET...but a shift of 200 miles west and stronger, is a good recipe for a warmer overall solution for the most part. And that much of a shift(200 miles) in one run, is why this is just another one of several possibilities on the table. (pointing out the obvious there no doubt) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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