Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,507
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    SnowHabit
    Newest Member
    SnowHabit
    Joined

Model Mayhem IV!

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yes it is ... 

but it isn't me you are talking about -  ...I don't take it personally, but, obviously what was said was not 'heard' - 

again, suffer as you will.  

Looking forward to valentines day, so I certainly am not 'suffering'-

Heading to a nice musical with the lady.

Cheers-

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Not sure if proper thread - repost from NY forum, but I have been liking the trends w/ strat and other variables for mid feb onward. Nothing is guaranteed but it is more legitimate than anything I have seen so far this winter.

 

While it would be ideal to propagate upward and split through 10hpa, it isn't really necessary insofar as the induction of tropospheric blocking (primary difference would probably be a longer duration block if it splits throughout the column). Since this is a wave 2 upwelling event, positive changes at the surface are more likely to occur than waiting patiently for a typical downwelling event. This is the first time I have actually liked how the EPS look in the LR. The NAO is too far NE initially, but once it retrogrades slightly further west, the trough will be in the Northeast, regardless of the positive EPO. The PNA will improve concurrently due to tropical forcing aid. I would also target the 15th to 20th general period for something interesting. Overall, I still like what I see down the road.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
Just now, Isotherm said:

Not sure if proper thread - repost from NY forum, but I have been liking the trends w/ strat and other variables for mid feb onward. Nothing is guaranteed but it is more legitimate than anything I have seen so far this winter.

 

While it would be ideal to propagate upward and split through 10hpa, it isn't really necessary insofar as the induction of tropospheric blocking (primary difference would probably be a longer duration block if it splits throughout the column). Since this is a wave 2 upwelling event, positive changes at the surface are more likely to occur than waiting patiently for a typical downwelling event. This is the first time I have actually liked how the EPS look in the LR. The NAO is too far NE initially, but once it retrogrades slightly further west, the trough will be in the Northeast, regardless of the positive EPO. The PNA will improve concurrently due to tropical forcing aid. I would also target the 15th to 20th general period for something interesting. Overall, I still like what I see down the road.

Cool.... I have melted already, but my outlook had March pegged for NAO assist.

Hopefully I can verify that from beyond the grave.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted
9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What SB storm?

Yeah...exactly! 

it appears the models pulled a fast one.   That original idea of the 5th and 6th has morphed into a weak sauce Lakes cutter that doesn't even have enough warm advection power to even modulate the NE U.S. out of the polar air.  Harmless to winter enthusiast interests in that regard actually...  It got sneaky replaced by the 7th-8th system that people just sort of unwittingly relayed their bitching from the previous to the latter.  

Ha ha, can't even complain right!  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A big pasta carbonera dish with baked chicken francaise melted mozzeralla, served with a side of deep tissue massage. Gotta do right for the women in our lives, they drive the bus. 

Yes, thankfully most of us have significant others and alternative avenues of interest to escape from a crap-winter.

Others just like to complain about complaining bc there is nothing else-

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted
38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looking forward to valentines day, so I certainly am not 'suffering'-

Heading to a nice musical with the lady.

Cheers-

Nice!   dude... having the foresight to not make the relationship all about what the male likes shows maturity. 

I don't have that yet - hahaha.  I suppose I could if I tried -

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The start vortex looks pretty intact over the pole from 50mb-10mb.  What did you see Isotherm?

 

It is wave 2 upwelling. The block near AK and kara sea will force wave 2 amplification into the lowet strat. On the ECM it splits upper trop up through the lower strat levels. It gets close around 50mb, but for now on the model data it is below that. This signal could grow stronger further up especially if the MJO p8 constructively interferes. Upwelling events of w2 variety tend to be a bit more promising for positive sfc changes, but we will see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I never look at the op runs for the strat because they seem to split happy..just something I have noted. But I see your point about wave 2 stuff. Yeah that can be a nice precursor to hopefully a more -NAO near Kara Sea..Scandi area etc.

 

I agree. Though the progression makes sense in light of the tropospheric precursor pattern. As I said, nothing is guaranteed, but I haven't liked the look of the strat at all this winter; this is our best opportunity yet. The w1 right now will yield a more susceptible vortex which is helpful too. Either way, if the MJO aid verifies, we should enter a better period for tropospheric NAM/NAO blocking for late winter in my opinion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Yo Iso'

I was noticing that since January 1, there were two minor positive perturbations earlier in the month, in the Z-anomaly, that took place closer to the tropopausal altitudes. They were also co-located in time with negative shifts (or attempted shifts) in the Arctic Oscillation.  

       (  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/  )

But, those did not have a U-anomaly associated ... none that were much more obvious above nominal.    

However, very recently ... a stronger much larger Z-anomaly has appeared, and is co-located in time with also (this time) a robust negative U-anomaly region ...Both taking place at very high altitudes. Thus, very high up the circulation of the PV is probably breaking down...  

The question is, do these changes propagate down in altitude?  That is critical - the downwelling.

Also, we now have a sudden materialization of much larger warm temperature anomaly mass that has taken place over that same recent interval of time. It's onset was also very high in altitude, in that same 2 to 5 hPa level; obviously, they are related as best logic dictates. Additionally, very recently a new warm node is materializing in the lower region between the 10 to 30 hPa levels, out in time.

That total temperature observation, together with these wind component analysis', tentatively signal that there is indeed downwelling.  There's a question of momentum in my mind, as the temperature anomalies and wind component ones as well ...they are all moderately strong.  Interesting.

That's of particular importance if we are interested in seeing an SSW lead to a  -AO  response...the usual correlation shows that when warm anomalies and particularly the wind component anomalies register into the 70 to 100 hPa levels, that typically when the PV really starts pancaking/breaking down where it counts...  The flow then buckles at mid levels around the 500 mb usual devils and blah blah blah...  

Additionally, that entire evolution takes usually 20 days... We are (if proven into an SSW event) approximately 1/3 the way through the time-lag correlation.

Having said that, some of the Z-anomalies have already begin to show up at lower altitudes.  The Us lag behind. It's probably more critical than not to have both be on the same page, but... The early January "dips" in the AO that seem to coincide with the modest positive Z-anomalies that took place at that time, could be a flag that the entire atmosphere is physically prepared to correlate earlier with the Z-anomaly.  Interesting.

Anyway, the GEFs model the AO to tank anyway... it's already supposedly begun (which may be consistent with the supposition immediately above)..but that drop continues for the next 10 to 15 days among all members..  Total correction is about +2 SD to - 2 SD... or a total phase transition of 4 or more standard deviations. I think that's a significant signal regardless of exact cause - but, in the absence of any antecedent planetary wave events and given to the up toward down observations et al, I hunch the AO's recently modeled characteristics are on whole probably more than not linked.     

Just my 2 cent o

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yo Iso'

I was noticing that since January 1, there were two minor positive perturbations earlier in the month, in the Z-anomaly, that took place closer to the tropopausal altitudes. They were also co-located in time with negative shifts (or attempted shifts) in the Arctic Oscillation.  

       (  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/  )

But, those did not have a U-anomaly associated ... none that were much more obvious above nominal.    

However, very recently ... a stronger much larger Z-anomaly has appeared, and is co-located in time with also (this time) a robust negative U-anomaly region ...Both taking place at very high altitudes. Thus, very high up the circulation of the PV is probably breaking down...  

The question is, do these changes propagate down in altitude?  That is critical - the downwelling.

Also, we now have a sudden materialization of much larger warm temperature anomaly mass that has taken place over that same recent interval of time. It's onset was also very high in altitude, in that same 2 to 5 hPa level; obviously, they are related as best logic dictates. Additionally, very recently a new warm node is materializing in the lower region between the 10 to 30 hPa levels, out in time.

That total temperature observation, together with these wind component analysis', tentatively signal that there is indeed downwelling.  There's a question of momentum in my mind, as the temperature anomalies and wind component ones as well ...they are all moderately strong.  Interesting.

That's of particular importance if we are interested in seeing an SSW lead to a  -AO  response...the usual correlation shows that when warm anomalies and particularly the wind component anomalies register into the 70 to 100 hPa levels, that typically when the PV really starts pancaking/breaking down where it counts...  The flow then buckles at mid levels around the 500 mb usual devils and blah blah blah...  

Additionally, that entire evolution takes usually 20 days... We are (if proven into an SSW event) approximately 1/3 the way through the time-lag correlation.

Having said that, some of the Z-anomalies have already begin to show up at lower altitudes.  The Us lag behind. It's probably more critical than not to have both be on the same page, but... The early January "dips" in the AO that seem to coincide with the modest positive Z-anomalies that took place at that time, could be a flag that the entire atmosphere is physically prepared to correlate earlier with the Z-anomaly.  Interesting.

Anyway, the GEFs model the AO to tank anyway... it's already supposedly begun (which may be consistent with the supposition immediately above)..but that drop continues for the next 10 to 15 days among all members..  Total correction is about +2 SD to - 2 SD... or a total phase transition of 4 or more standard deviations. I think that's a significant signal regardless of exact cause - but, in the absence of any antecedent planetary wave events and given to the up toward down observations et al, I hunch the AO's recently modeled characteristics are on whole probably more than not linked.     

Just my 2 cent o

I'm just happy that you and I are among the few that don't add an s to anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...