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February 2017 General Discussion


Hoosier

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Picked up 0.14" overnight.  There's actually some sprouts of new green grass this morning.  

Last few HRRR runs have MLI languishing around 64 this afternoon.  Point has 70, so we'll see.  The rains overnight were less than anticipated, so hopefully that should help.  MLI/DVN picked up 0.21"/0.35" respectively.

I picked up 0.31" of rain.  I also notice a bit of greening in the backyard.  The daffodils are certainly popping.

I'm not sure how warm we'll get this afternoon.  The HRRR appears to be wrongly holding onto fog across Iowa, which keeps temps down in the 50s.  We've been full sun for a while.

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I think Milwaukee has a legit chance at 75+ tomorrow.  The 850 mb temps will be between 13-14c which matches the 850 mb temps on 11/1/16 when we hit 77 degrees.  With a similar sun angle (actually 10 days stronger now than 11/1), no snow cover, full sun, and good mixing, I don't see why we don't cruise all the way to the mid 70s. 

The old monthly record of 68 looks to be in serious trouble here.

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Made it to 57 here today even with full cloud cover and rain, temps shouldn't drop too much tonight so tomorrow could really warm quickly if we aren't too foggy in the morning. Temps at 850 and 925 rise tomorrow through the day so we have a shot at making it close to 70 tomorrow.

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DTX dropping this tidbit for tomorrow

Mixing depths will increase up toward 925mb where temperatures will
near 12C. With mostly sunny skies, mixing depths, temps starting off
in the mid 40s, and southwesterly flow, mid to upper 60s should be
attainable Wednesday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, all
time February highs could be in play which are:

DTW...70 (1999)
FNT...68 (1999)
MBS...67 (1930)

It wouldn't shock me if we get close, tie or break all 3 of those records.

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5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

As feared the streak of 70+ was broke at MLI.  Wet soils probably knocked a degree or two off.  69 was the high.  Still impressive, but sucks the streak is history.

Na it doesn't suck. This is historic. Embrace it. Numbers wise it doesn't look as impressive but this is February man, unprecedented warmth shattering records left and right. 

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Looks like 66 will do it at ORD, just shy of tying the record.  

RFD broke their record.


So close.

It kept the 60+ and 65+ streaks going though.

And considering it rained this morning and cloud cover held on into the afternoon, it was quite a feat to hit 66...considering it's February.
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The only potential issue that could keep ORD from a tie or breaking the 75 degree February all time record high is fog.

Already seeing a bit of ground fog developing, and the HRRR is fully onboard with dense fog developing. It was too aggressive Monday morning, and hopefully that's the case again.

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Starting to get concerned for fog potential tonight in northern IL and for at least some impact on temperatures tomorrow with respect to tying or breaking records, especially Chicago's all time February record. If dense fog forms with a very low stratus deck, would likely make it tougher. Recent runs of the HRRR have been showing dense fog lingering through 14-15z before dissipating.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Something else that would be interesting to look at.   How many people getting a 70+ degree day in Feb also experienced a 70+ degree day in November?   If so, just think that there were only 2 months out of the last 12 that didn't hit 70.

CMH also had maxes of 69 in December and 67 in January.

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58 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Starting to get concerned for fog potential tonight in northern IL and for at least some impact on temperatures tomorrow with respect to tying or breaking records, especially Chicago's all time February record. If dense fog forms with a very low stratus deck, would likely make it tougher. Recent runs of the HRRR have been showing dense fog lingering through 14-15z before dissipating.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Was looking at maps and soundings for tomorrow, and wow, there is some unbelievably dry air just off the deck in northern IL and surrounding areas.  Have to think the raw model output is going to be too high with dews as it shouldn't be difficult to mix some of that down.  This would help the cause with max temps of course.

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Starting to get concerned for fog potential tonight in northern IL and for at least some impact on temperatures tomorrow with respect to tying or breaking records, especially Chicago's all time February record. If dense fog forms with a very low stratus deck, would likely make it tougher. Recent runs of the HRRR have been showing dense fog lingering through 14-15z before dissipating.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

The NAM is onboard the fog/stratus issues as well.
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Was looking at maps and soundings for tomorrow, and wow, there is some unbelievably dry air just off the deck in northern IL and surrounding areas.  Have to think the raw model output is going to be too high with dews as it shouldn't be difficult to mix some of that down.  This would help the cause with max temps of course.



Yep, it should be off to the races once any morning muck clears. Fog may not be a total deal breaker either. Checked the hourly obs from MDW from 2/27/76 and there was a very impressive temperature climb after 10am when it was only 54°. That day appeared to be aided as well by very strong low level advection with southwest winds gusting to 35-40 mph.
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19 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

 


Yep, it should be off to the races once any morning muck clears. Fog may not be a total deal breaker either. Checked the hourly obs from MDW from 2/27/76 and there was a very impressive temperature climb after 10am when it was only 54°. That day appeared to be aided as well by very strong low level advection with southwest winds gusting to 35-40 mph.

 

Dug up the PIA RAOB from that day, and it looks like 925 mb temps were ~16C, which is within a degree or so of what most model runs have been progging in northern IL. Also had a lot of dry air aloft.  May be difficult to get winds as high as 2/27/76.

 

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6 minutes ago, Maxim said:

tangible possibility that this Friday ends up being the warmest day of this stretch. 

I could definitely see that farther east.  Farther west (like around Chicago) would need tomorrow to underperform and get very lucky with breaks in the rain/clouds on Friday.

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HRRR may be under-doing temps out this way for tomorrow.  Moisture is very shallow, generally 300 meters deep with a layer of very dry air above it.  Should be able to mix down lower dews during the afternoon.  The mid 50s the HRRR is showing is suspect.  Further east towards northeast IL the moisture is a bit deeper, up to around 500 meters.  This may keep the low clouds/fog going longer there like others have said.  Should eventually mix that out though and be able to tap into that warm dry layer just aloft.  

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