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February 2017 General Discussion


Hoosier

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Tomorrow is tricky as clouds could play spoiler but if they hold off long enough/aren't too extensive, then may be able to head up toward 70 here.  Would be pretty unusual to do it with a SE sfc flow at this time of year but 925 mb temps are progged around 13-14C.

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Tomorrow is tricky as clouds could play spoiler but if they hold off long enough/aren't too extensive, then may be able to head up toward 70 here.  Would be pretty unusual to do it with a SE sfc flow at this time of year but 925 mb temps are progged around 13-14C.

Yeah tomorrow's system has sped up compared to what we were seeing all week.  Originally it was going to be the warmest day of the spell along the MS valley area.  Euro implies it may be hard pressed to break much above 60 tomorrow from here on west.  Gonna be a tougher call for you guys, but you have a decent shot at 70.  

I'm wondering if the rains we get tomorrow temper the warmth a bit for Tue/Wed.  DVN believes Wed could be the warmest day out of this whole stretch, but if we get 0.50"+ like some of the models are showing we may not have such ideal conditions for extreme temps.

EDIT:  Another new record at MLI.  Up to 71 now.  Now 4 degrees ahead of Fri.  Hell, let's go for 80!  lol

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35 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah tomorrow's system has sped up compared to what we were seeing all week.  Originally it was going to be the warmest day of the spell along the MS valley area.  Euro implies it may be hard pressed to break much above 60 tomorrow from here on west.  Gonna be a tougher call for you guys, but you have a decent shot at 70.  

I'm wondering if the rains we get tomorrow temper the warmth a bit for Tue/Wed.  DVN believes Wed could be the warmest day out of this whole stretch, but if we get 0.50"+ like some of the models are showing we may not have such ideal conditions for extreme temps.

EDIT:  Another new record at MLI.  Up to 71 now.  Now 4 degrees ahead of Fri.  Hell, let's go for 80!  lol

Even with those rain amounts, 70s look likely... just a question of how far above.

Really impressed by the look for Wednesday, and it will be a fairly warm start to the day.  Don't really trust the model progs as far as low level mixing, and given the trends of the last few days with highs overperforming, I think temps well into the 70s could occur across all of northern IL if things play out right.

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Impressive thing is we continue to see the warmth with little breeze. In fact there is hardly any air at all except for open spaces making 64° feel like 80°. So rare to such heat with little wind, just for comparison April 30 is the first time that our average highs hit 65 in Toledo. 

Days like today are when it stinks to live on or by the lake here, on Put In Bay right now it's only 46°

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27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

ORD is up to 70 now.

Jesus. 

 

13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Robins are back.  Heard some of their distinct chirping in the distance a short while ago.

MLI has tied the all-time record again at 73.  Some high clouds working in now, so not sure how much higher they'll go.  

 

That is just insane. Every day has overperformed by 3-4 degrees during this warm spell. I have 72 in my forecast Wednesday. Morch like numbers towards months end. 

Actually the cool down next Friday/Saturday just brings us back to seasonal, slightly above average, so these numbers won't be going down at all. 

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3 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Its hard to fathom the snow drought we've seen since 06-07. Hopefully we don't come close to ever experiencing something like this again. Surprisingly enough, our top 10 snowiest Winters were all in the 1800s. I don't know about the temperature anomalies though. Some of these numbers below remain untouched (though a couple of Winters since 1938 have come somewhat close). 

Toronto's top 5 snowiest Winters: 1869-70: 123.5" , 1872-73: 114.1" , 1866-67: 113.7" , 1874-75: 100.0" , 1851-52: 98.1" . 

In comparison, at the same station 07-08 recorded 82.6" (which would put in 11th or 12th position). 

The key thing I'm trying to take away is "extremes". Your area for example saw the snowiest Winter on record, then later in the year saw the 2nd worst November cold snap followed by the 2nd least snowiest December on record (all in the same year) is alot of extremes. In Toronto, we saw the coldest February and month on record in 2015 with an average temperature of 9.3F beating the old record set in Jan 94 (9.6F). Now in the same year, we saw the warmest December on record. So in my personal belief, if we were to take in climate change over the next few decades, extremes may become the norm more so than seeing constantly colder than or warmer than average months. 

 

That's interesting that Toronto snow data goes back so far. I wonder about their measuring practices  (ie nipher crap lol) but still just to have data is awesome. Lansing goes to 1869 and that's the longest of any site in michigan. Detroit officially starts in 1880 due to some missing and inaccurate data from 1874-79, although we can reasonably guess those winters of the 1870s. February of 1877 and 1882 were ridiculous snowless torches. 1876-77 then had a ton of snow in March. 1881-82 on the other hand is by far our warmest winter on record and with only 13.2" of snow. Though snowcover wasn't recorded back than I'm guessing we probably had 5-7 days with snow on the ground.

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I won't include chicago because that's just a ridiculous fluke going on, but for many others in the region, this year should tell you if you prefer a front loaded or back loaded winter lol. Obviously i like a nonstop winter like 2013-14, but thats unrealistic. Or at least a super active one like 2007-08. But this year is classic front loaded fake out by ma nature. On Dec 17th I was shoveling for the 3rd time in 6 days  (17" in that time) and wishing for a brief break as my lower back was hurting  (I have a big driveway). Since then we have had about 4 shovelable snows in 2 months. Of course a smattering of other dustings to keep everything covered in salt, but you know what I mean. If i have to choose, I'd prefer a backloaded winter. 

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8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Front-loaded winter and that isn't even a hard choice. 

The general public in Chicago literally got the unthinkable this year. Lots of snow up to Christmas then nothing. Makes you wonder how they really feel lol.

 

Still skiing at Mt Brighton today I hear. Skiing with blue temps in the mid-60s. Colorado-esque.

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8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The general public in Chicago literally got the unthinkable this year. Lots of snow up to Christmas then nothing. Makes you wonder how they really feel lol.

 

Still skiing at Mt Brighton today I hear. Skiing with blue temps in the mid-60s. Colorado-esque.

Based upon people I know from Chicago who are praising this weather, I think they are probably pretty happy about this outcome, just like the people around here.

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4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Based upon people I know from Chicago who are praising this weather, I think they are probably pretty happy about this outcome, just like the people around here.

I would've liked the front loaded part to go longer (into January) but I'm loving this current weather.  

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I would've liked the front loaded part to go longer (into January) but I'm loving this current weather.  

Yeah if it had gone into January that wouldn't have been bad for you guys, here we did still get stuff so this was probably about as good as it could get. I mean if a storm came between now and say mid March it wouldn't bother me too much, but anything beyond that I'll pass on because I don't want anything stunting Spring.

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The record that we broke today at DTW was apparently one of the longer standing ones, dating back to 1884.

Interestingly, the record lows for today and tomorrow were set just two years ago in 2015 at -5°F and -13°F respectively. Meanwhile, the record of 63°F tomorrow which should be very safe, was set just last year. An age of extremes, we're living in. :lol:

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