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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25
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11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

the storms have really underperformed in NJ, I think 4-5 the Jan event and i read 6-7 for last thursday but it looked like about 4-5 to me, there were a couple inch events, puts us around 10-12 inches so far, not gonna get to average out here unless we get a whopper or two.

What did you get in the December event? I have 24" from three events, not counting any of the smaller 1"-2" ones.

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1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

My thoughts on the remainder of the winter are as follows:

 

The physical mechanisms broached in foregoing conversations are still valid insofar as the forthcoming tropospheric pattern, but I feel differently regarding the timing for reasons which will be elucidated here. The negative NAM / NAO period over the past ten days is not related to the current MJO forcing - rather, it is a direct response to the rapid downwelling induced via the stratospheric warming / w=1 event at the beginning of the month. I am also convinced that the reconsolidation of the vortex from near 0 m/s zonal winds to slightly weaker than average is an insufficient factor contributing to the modelled medium range blowtorch. The coherent propagation of the u signal through P-7 is a very warm signal when accounting for background conditions, and so, this is likely the first time - in my opinion - that the MJO forcing is superseding other variables such as the depressed vortex state. The amplified MJO propagation is both deleterious and beneficial, therefore. The progged torch centered on February 20th +/- 3 days makes sense due to the attendant lag time w/ the extratropical circulation. As a result, there will be a break in the favorability, but I strongly believe that we have not seen our last winter event of the season. I never expected this winter to be an overall "wintry" one with persistent snowpack and frequent opportunities, so the potential for late winter always concerned setting up a more propitious pattern for another snowfall. There is a +MT and concomitant jet extension with Nino-esque GWO/AAM forcing over the next several days. Initially, I thought that w2 generation would be enhanced due to the tropospheric precursors, and it has, but not sufficiently so to impact the upper stratosphere. The models are now detecting the amplified w1 generation associated with the propagating MJO wave and precursor pattern. With the vortex already in a weakened state, and guaranteed robust MJO forcing w/ induction of planetary waves, I would anticipate another stratospheric attack circa Feb 20-25. This coincides well with the time-lag of the MJO. A second zonal wind reversal is possible, but not definitive. Even if there isn't a zonal wind reversal, I think we will see a gradually improving tropospheric pattern once again by the last week of February - especially after the 24th-25th. I'm not particularly crazy about the 22nd-23rd period for a storm because we're in between periods of favorability. I think the next time frame to monitor for a threat would be toward the last few days of February or early March. Whether that's the final opportunity is indeterminate. To me, this was a 20-26" winter for Central Park, so we've already reached my expectations snowfall wise, and there's room for another event. It's possible, if factors progress as I expect, that Central Park finishes close to normal in terms of snowfall. It's possible they don't. Based upon the above, it is my opinion that winter in the sense of snowfall chances is not "over" yet. There will be a warm break, epitomizing the pattern of this winter overall.

Thanks ISO, how do you feel about the event this Thursday? It's probably the last one we will have before the forecasted break.

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2 hours ago, Superstorm said:


Yeah, no kidding. Had nearly a 100" of snow near Harrisburg, PA. And tons of storms (both ice and snow). Textbook winter.

-22F at MDT in January of that year is still the record.

I was going to school at Pitt and had ice storm with temps in the teens that encased my car for weeks.


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Funny thing is if you go just a little south of our area, the winter wasn't so good (Philly was around average [so we're basically where Philly was in 93-94], south of there below average snowfall.)  But for us and especially just north and west of us it was great (I was in NE PA in February and man, the snow covered the first floor of houses up there.)  It was -22 in the Poconos too and Allentown set their record for most snowfall with almost 80" of snow.

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27 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

the storms have really underperformed in NJ, I think 4-5 the Jan event and i read 6-7 for last thursday but it looked like about 4-5 to me, there were a couple inch events, puts us around 10-12 inches so far, not gonna get to average out here unless we get a whopper or two.

Same old story during the 2000's where interior areas along the same latitude band don't do as well as the coast relative to the means.

Seasonal snowfall departures through 2/11/17

ABE.....-10.8 

ISP.....+16.1

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same old story during the 2000's when interior areas along the same latitude band don't do as well as the coast relative to the means.

Seasonal snowfall departures through 2/11/17

ABE.....-10.8 so far vs ISP...+16.1 so far

 

 

BW above normal temp ocean waters cause the storms to bomb out as they hit the water, thus the higher totals as you move east at the same latitude.

 

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3 hours ago, Paragon said:

Thanks ISO, how do you feel about the event this Thursday? It's probably the last one we will have before the forecasted break.

 

There isn't sufficient time remaining for the changes we need for late week. If it were D7, different story. The timing of the corresponding streams is mis-matched. The progressive rolling of the meridional PNA forces the downstream baroclonic zone of the eastern side of the trough too far east. I could see enough change for something minor around here at best. 

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13 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

There isn't sufficient time remaining for the changes we need for late week. If it were D7, different story. The timing of the corresponding streams is mis-matched. The progressive rolling of the meridional PNA forces the downstream baroclonic zone of the eastern side of the trough too far east. I could see enough change for something minor around here at best. 

Thanks, looks like another big hit for eastern New England, they've been having a banner second half of winter.  I've been hearing comparisons being made to 2014-15 for them.

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1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Thanks, looks like another big hit for eastern New England, they've been having a banner second half of winter.  I've been hearing comparisons being made to 2014-15 for them.

Wasn't 14-15 the winter where there was so much snow in Boston that they had to take it from the streets and truck it over to a big empty area?  The mound was so massive that it lasted until like June or something.  I remember reading an article about it that Summer, let me see if I can find it.

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5 hours ago, Paragon said:

What did you get in the December event? I have 24" from three events, not counting any of the smaller 1"-2" ones.

About an inch or two....i straddle the coastal/ central area, as Woodbridge is not far from Raritan Bay, so there is coastal influence but not enough when the coast is doing well, but far enough that sometimes we don't change and they do.

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59 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

It was the Winter of 2014-2015.  Incredible cold and snow that season.  Boston got 110.6", and the pile lasted until July.

Here it is:  https://weather.com/news/news/boston-snow-seaport-not-melted-summer

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/15/us/boston-snow-pile-finally-melts/

Yeah that was the winter where we got side swiped by a lot of storms that hit them head on. Everyone was getting ready to jump off the ship because there was very little snow until late January and then everything changed. The weirdest pattern I've ever seen.

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1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

About an inch or two....i straddle the coastal/ central area, as Woodbridge is not far from Raritan Bay, so there is coastal influence but not enough when the coast is doing well, but far enough that sometimes we don't change and they do.

Oh I know that area- you also roast in the summer even more than NYC does. I think that area got hit particularly well in the Boxing Day Blizzard.

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It appears increasingly likely that the February 18-24 period will see an EPO+/PNA+/AO+ pattern. Such patterns are typically warmer than normal.

Some statistics (2/15-25/1981-2010 period) for EPO+/PNA+/AO+ dates:

Mean temperature: 42.6° (climatology: 38.1°)
% days with high temperatures of 50° or above: 49% (climatology: 29%)
% days with low temperatures of 32° or below: 31% (climatology: 55%)

Given the forecast pattern, it appears that no additional appreciable or greater snowfalls (4"or more) are likely for the New York City area (including suburbs and Long Island) for at least the next 7-10 days. There remains a small chance of a minor event later this week, but the shortwaves won't phase until they are too far offshore to impact the region. Parts of Maine and New Brunswick could still be in line for a significant snowfall.
 

 

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First two winters in a row for the area where all 3 winter months finish with a positive temperature departure and over 20" of snow.

I believe that this will be only the 5th such occurrence since the late 1940's. If I am missing a winter, then let me know. Our last

cold winter month here February 2015 really did it in style. I guess mother nature used up all the cold air on that -10 or lower month.

2016-2017...2015-2016...1990-1991..1982-1983...1948-1949

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