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dmillz25

February 2017 Discussion & Observations

1,281 posts in this topic

Moderate rain with rather frequent thunder here in Clifton,  only the second February thunderstorm here since 2001, the last one was last year.  Since 1973 we have averaged one thunderstorm in February every four years.

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Following today, New York City's average February temperature will stand at 41.1°-41.2°. That is above the record high average of 40.9°, which was established in 2012. If the latest MOS guidance is reasonably accurate, February 2017 would finish with an average temperature of 41.4°. Even if all of the remaining MOS minimum and maximum temperature readings are all 4° too warm, February would finish with a mean temperature of 41.0°. In sum, it remains very likely that February 2017 will be the warmest February on record in NYC.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Following today, New York City's average February temperature will stand at 41.1°-41.2°. That is above the record high average of 40.9°, which was established in 2012. If the latest MOS guidance is reasonably accurate, February 2017 would finish with an average temperature of 41.4°. Even if all of the remaining MOS minimum and maximum temperature readings are all 4° too warm, February would finish with a mean temperature of 41.0°. In sum, it remains very likely that February 2017 will be the warmest February on record in NYC.

Wow

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This is the exaggerated warmer world version of what used to pass as La Nina climo back in cooler times. The progression of coldest early getting warmer as the winter continued is typical for La Nina. But these extreme departures and record warmth are more commonl for recent warmer winter climo.

Like Don and others mentioned, this extreme warmth moved NYC into the #1 spot for warmest February.

Dec...+0.8

Jan...+5.4

Feb...+6.2

Winter so far ranked 6th warmest on record at 39.1 degrees. Also the first back to back top 10 warmest winters with over 20" of snow.

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50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the exaggerated warmer world version of what used to pass as La Nina climo back in cooler times. The progression of coldest early getting warmer as the winter continued is typical for La Nina. But these extreme departures and record warmth are more commonl for recent warmer winter climo.

Like Don and others mentioned, this extreme warmth moved NYC into the #1 spot for warmest February.

Dec...+0.8

Jan...+5.4

Feb...+6.2

Winter so far ranked 6th warmest on record at 39.1 degrees. Also the first back to back top 10 warmest winters with over 20" of snow.

A few people mentioned that last fall, that December would likely be the coldest month of the 3 (in relation to averages) (and in this year absolutes!)   They turned out to be right.

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

A few people mentioned that last fall, that December would likely be the coldest month of the 3 (in relation to averages) (and in this year absolutes!)   They turned out to be right.

That's the standard La Nina winter distribution of temperature departure pattern that we have seen in the past. But this extreme warmth is a new twist on an old theme. Just like many expected last December to be the warmest month of the winter since it was an El Nino. But the magnitude of the historic warmth completely crushed all expectations. It's tough using past analogs for absolute temperature range since the older stuff was in a colder era relative to today. But things like timing of when we might see warmest and coldest temperatures or best snowfall can still apply in this era.

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12 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

A few people mentioned that last fall, that December would likely be the coldest month of the 3 (in relation to averages) (and in this year absolutes!)   They turned out to be right.

I was one of those people who believed December would be the coldest month. I thought it would be a little more severe than +1, but everything is tilted mild in today's climate, especially with the general lack of sustained Atlantic/Arctic blocking since March 2013. 

I also thought March would be relatively cool, and potentially snowy, as we have seen in quite a few La Ninas/negative-neutral years such as 1960, 1967, 1984, and 2009. Doubt we get that degree of cold, but there should be a couple opportunities for snow in the Mar 5-15 period. Looks as though the window may close afterwards with a warmer second half of the month.

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