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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

cheap midnight high of 52 in the city.  That's amazing for February to still see it in the low to mid 50's around midnight with clear sky conditions (Vs a cutter or something else that would keep temsp high)

The 53 min yesterday in NYC came very close to the all time warmest min for the month of February of 55 degrees set in 1985.

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53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last run of the weeklies had above normal temps through March 5-6th. But the week 3 had temps closer to or below normal March 7-13.

You can see the latest EPS run trying to go to a change to near or below normal temps around March 7th.

 

eps_t850a_noram_61.png

 

 

Yes the earliest 80's on record in March.

Thanks BW- was that the earliest 80 on record for just EWR or also for NYC, LGA and JFK?

 

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8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's probably a +30 day or something like that.

Close. It came out to a +23 for NYC and 2nd to the +25 on Jan 12th.

 

6 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Thanks BW- was that the earliest 80 on record for just EWR or also for NYC, LGA and JFK?

 

Just for Newark. 

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9 minutes ago, Paragon said:

and Minneapolis has been really warm too.

MSP going this warm during a La Nina is another odd feature of this event. Almost all the seasonal forecasts using past La Nina climo composites went cold there this winter.

MSP....Feb so far...+9.4...Jan...+5.3...Dec...+1.2

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

MSP going this warm during a La Nina is another odd feature of this event. Almost all the seasonal forecasts using past La Nina climo composites went cold there this winter.

MSP....Feb so far...+9.4...Jan...+5.3...Dec...+1.2

Yeah, a lot more than ENSO has been at play this winter.  I wonder if we'll see more against-the-grain temp anomalies going forward.

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13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Probably. I know they bloomed during December 2006 into January 2007.

Well from what I remember, I had roses blooming even after Christmas in 2001 and our first freeze was close to New Years.  Then we had crocuses (croci?) blooming in late February again lol.

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4 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yeah, a lot more than ENSO has been at play this winter.  I wonder if we'll see more against-the-grain temp anomalies going forward.

I believe the only warmer La Nina winter for MSP was 2011-2012. So the big story for this La Nina winter will be the extreme precip further south

than normal for a La Nina in California along with the record warmth across many parts of the US.

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Just now, bluewave said:

I believe the only warmer La Nina winter for MSP was 2011-2012. So the big story for this La Nina will be the extreme precip further south

than normal for a La Nina in California along with the record warmth across many parts of the US.

So this is more of a recent thing then.  But did MSP have anything like those big +9.4 Feb anomalies that year that they have this year?

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Despite the likely peak in the late February warmth later this week (possibly with temperatures approaching or reaching 70° at EWR), the overall pattern continues to evolve in a fashion consistent with past late February AO+/PNA+ regimes. The PNA is headed negative, which should amplify the warmth in the Wednesday-Saturday period. The AO will drift lower in the extended range and possibly go negative.

Therefore, even as the exceptional warmth will ease, temperatures through the middle of the first week of March may not be all that cold. Afterward, there remains the potential that the second week of March could be colder than normal. Most La Niña winters feature some measurable snowfall, so the narrow timeframe from the middle of the first week of March through the second week of March could provide a decent window of opportunity.

Finally, considering the predominant state of the teleconnections this winter, the cold period might not last more than 7-10 days. The latter half of March could experience a warming trend that returns readings to above normal levels. As for the month as a whole, a warmer than normal outcome seems more likely than a colder than normal one. 

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5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Despite the likely peak in the late February warmth later this week (possibly with temperatures approaching or reaching 70° at EWR), the overall pattern continues to evolve in a fashion consistent with past late February AO+/PNA+ regimes. The PNA is headed negative, which should amplify the warmth in the Wednesday-Saturday period. The AO will drift lower in the extended range and possibly go negative.

Therefore, even as the exceptional warmth will ease, temperatures through the middle of the first week of March may not be all that cold. Afterward, there remains the potential that the second week of March could be colder than normal. Most La Niña winters feature some measurable snowfall, so the narrow timeframe from the middle of the first week of March through the second week of March could provide a decent window of opportunity.

Finally, considering the predominant state of the teleconnections this winter, the cold period might not last more than 7-10 days. The latter half of March could experience a warming trend that returns readings to above normal levels. As for the month as a whole, a warmer than normal outcome seems more likely than a colder than normal one. 

March 13th for last snowfall and March 22nd for the resumption of the torch- remember those dates ;-)

Also, Don do you think the warmth on Thursday could surpass what we had here on Sunday- even for places like JFK?

 

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5 minutes ago, Paragon said:

So this is more of a recent thing then.  But did MSP have anything like those big +9.4 Feb anomalies that year that they have this year?

The December-February 2011-12 anomalies were very warm, but not as warm as those during the current winter at MSP. They were as follows: December: +9.1°; January: +7.7°' and, February: +6.9°.

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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The December-February 2011-12 anomalies were very warm, but not as warm as those during the current winter at MSP. They were as follows: December: +9.1°; January: +7.7°' and, February: +6.9°.

Wow very warm!  That was the year when the Midwest torched in March I think- record warm Spring for them.  We had something similar December 2015.  

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9 minutes ago, Paragon said:

So this is more of a recent thing then.  But did MSP have anything like those big +9.4 Feb anomalies that year that they have this year?

This February will beat Feb 12 there. But the rest of the DJFM 12 months were ahead of this year.

MSP DJFM 11-12

Dec...+9.1

Jan....+7.7

Feb...+6.9

Mar....+15.5

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Just now, bluewave said:

This February will beat Feb 12 there. But the rest of the DJFM 12 months were ahead of this year.

MSP DJFM 11-12

Dec...+9.1

Jan....+7.7

Feb...+6.9

Mar....+15.5

Yep I figured because I remember that was an amazingly hot spring for that region- their March 2012 was like our December 2015

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Just now, Paragon said:

March 13th for last snowfall and March 22nd for the resumption of the torch- remember those dates ;-)

Also, Don do you think the warmth on Thursday could surpass what we had here on Sunday- even for places like JFK?

 

I believe the potential exists that the warmth on Thursday could surpass yesterday's.

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3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yep I figured because I remember that was an amazingly hot spring for that region- their March 2012 was like our December 2015

I guess you could also add the weak 05-06 La Nina to the list for the record January warmth.

MSP 

Jan 06....+15.5

 

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