NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If you want to believe the GFS go right ahead. It's been horrific this winter. If you compare the upper level winds on the new 12z GFS to the 0z GFS they've gotten stronger. This is a progressive pattern with fast flow and no Atlantic blocking. I'm willing to bet a lot of money the GFS is going to loose the threat if the winds changed from 0Z to 12Z how do you know which one is more accurate ? GFS hasn't been horrific compared to the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Huh????..... where? Lol He may have meant the GEFS but I don't have them yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If you want to believe the GFS go right ahead. It's been horrific this winter. If you compare the upper level winds on the new 12z GFS to the 0z GFS they've gotten stronger. This is a progressive pattern with fast flow and no Atlantic blocking. I'm willing to bet a lot of money the GFS is going to loose the threat Taking bets against the Nam at any time frame this season is a bad idea... especially if your gonna hug the GFS lol.... GFS is alone currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 GEFS is pretty robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: He may have meant the GEFS but I don't have them yet Gefs are ok... about the exact same as 06z in terms of number of hits, but to be honest, their just pretty to look at, literally useless... 06z one member had 12-18, the same 12z member is a complete miss... if the Gefs and EPS were good mid/long range, I'd be sitting on a 60+" snowpack, they're awful IMO, and get skewed by complete misses, and massive hits, on out to lunch members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Taking bets against the Nam at any time frame this season is a bad idea... especially if your gonna hug the GFS lol.... GFS is alone currently The NAM in the last 2 weeks has started to have problems beyond 60 hours. Up until that point it was having one of the better stretches I can remember beyond 48-60, but the last 2 notable weather sustems in the eastern US it was very bad in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Taking bets against the Nam at any time frame this season is a bad idea... especially if your gonna hug the GFS lol.... GFS is alone currently GFS is not alone - NAVGEM is showing Thursdays and the UKMET is beginning to show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM in the last 2 weeks has started to have problems beyond 60 hours. Up until that point it was having one of the better stretches I can remember beyond 48-60, but the last 2 notable weather sustems in the eastern US it was very bad in the longer range. Really cause the sleet storm up here, was a complete score by the nam, it schooled euro, GFS, and ggem from 84hrs out the most recent system is the only 1 can think of that it hasn't been spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: GFS is not alone - NAVGEM is showing Thursdays and the UKMET is beginning to show it Evidently the UKMET was a total miss after 72 by something I saw posted elsewhere. It's hard to believe that because it looked great at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I think this discussion regarding which model has been better then the other is a complete waste of time because cases can be made regarding when each one was accurate and not so accurate this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: GFS is not alone - NAVGEM is showing Thursdays and the UKMET is beginning to show it I notice we only talk about the navgem/JMA, when it shows what we want though.... both are horrendous, I'm only saying that without blocking/and a progressive flow, a quick hitting 2-4 or 3-5" along the coast is all I see that second wave amounting to, GFS showed 1 good hit, and moved toward euro with its 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: I think this discussion regarding which model has been better then the other is a complete waste of time because cases can be made regarding when each one was accurate and not so accurate this winter Well this thread IS model discussion lmao.. were discussing exactly what the threads intent was lol, model banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I notice we only talk about the navgem/JMA, when it shows what we want though.... both are horrendous, I'm only saying that without blocking/and a progressive flow, a quick hitting 2-4 or 3-5" along the coast is all I see that second wave amounting to, GFS showed 1 good hit, and moved toward euro with its 12z run once again its useless saying one model has been horrendous - for your information the JMA was probably the most consistent model forecasting the January 7th event - it continued to show the storm when most others lost it for several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 The NavGEM is useful inside 100 hours as far as placement of features. If it's not significantly more progressive than the euro or GFS it often means there is room for the system to come more north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Euro made a big jump from yesterday to today. Looks more in line with the GFS. 12z today 12z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Euro is fine . Reminds me of the anafrontal wave last February. It kept on trending stronger as we got closer. Hope this happens here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 31 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is fine . Reminds me of the anafrontal wave last February. It kept on trending stronger as we got closer. Hope this happens here. What did we get last February from it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 32 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is fine . Reminds me of the anafrontal wave last February. It kept on trending stronger as we got closer. Hope this happens here. would be nice if you were more specific about which storm you are talking about since there was at least a couple events last February ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 44 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is fine . Reminds me of the anafrontal wave last February. It kept on trending stronger as we got closer. Hope this happens here. 00z was better though, woulda liked to see that continue, it's actually a bit weaker and south from 00z city is a dusting to 1" tops central to western LI is about 1" and eastern Long Island about 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: You're wrong obviously the low placement was North on the 12z run so stop giving out misinformation. No it wasn't. The guys in the NE forum say so too. It wasn't a very good run. However, we'll see if the EPS shifts towards a more favorable solution. All of the other 12z ensembles did, so hopefully it sends the same message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: No it wasn't. The guys in the NE forum say so too. It wasn't a very good run. However, we'll see if the EPS shifts towards a more favorable solution. All of the other 12z ensembles did, so hopefully it sends the same message. Yeah i just looked at it again you guys are right it did look better but hopefully we get some north trend we've had all year. The GFS para looked really good take a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Lot of members way out to sea there No block, fast flow... normally I'm optimistic, not feeling this "threat" 06z GFS was a fluke imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: No block, fast flow... normally I'm optimistic, not feeling this "threat" 06z GFS was a fluke imo I will say though.... there is a string on the left side there that would produce some pretty decent hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Not buying anything the GFS is showing right now, sticking with the theme of the winter so far. Hoping things trend in our favor for once as we get closer instead of the opposite but I am doubtful at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Nam looks good honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 28 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Nam looks good honestly Elaborate plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 18z GFS is still just a graze.... looks even less impressive overall. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 18z GFS is still just a graze.... looks even less impressive overall. meh It's fine Few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Did anyone look at the 18Z para NAM at 84. That's worth a laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 18z GFS is still just a graze.... looks even less impressive overall. meh yes its a graze for western and northern areas - WWA snows possible for Eastern NJ NYC and LI similar to January 7th event in many areas if the consistent GFS verifies - waiting for the GEFS to see if it has as much precip as the 12Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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