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February Model Discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Of rain or snow?

thanks.

Total precip ranges about .9 - 2.5, interior is between 1.5-2.5" LE... kuchera ratio maps is 2-3" of snow, about .20-.40 ICP, and a bit of sleet, rest is rain

 

NW jersey points NE into LHV see most precip, mostly rain 

NYC/ Long island is a general 1" precip all rain  

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11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

This looks like it'll be interesting. The GFS has been trending the trailing energy stronger in the last couple runs. It's a longshot, but there's nothing else to look at. 

18z

gfs_z500_vort_us_30.png

12z

gfs_z500_vort_us_31.png

should start a contest - which run will it disappear or turn into a cutter ?

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4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The 18z GFS is handling the energy coming into the Pac NW a lot differently this run. I'm not sure if it's going to make a difference in the end but it's quite a significant change early on.

I guess nothing changed 

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52 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

MJO still looks very solid into 8 on all the models. The models might be adjusting to the MJO.

I agree other than the NAO the teleconnections look good. However one concern I have is the GEFS now has the MJO barely getting into 8 then curling back into 7. Can the MJO so that? Does the eps show the same thing?

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM through 84 looks more like the Euro than the GFS.  That GFS run was probably too amped with the pattern being progressive but we'll see where things go today. 

I was just about to say that Snowgoose. Fast, progressive flow, no -NAO block to slow it down and the GFS has been overamping shortwaves. The GFS op or ensembles are not to be trusted. Remember when it had the Super Bowl snowstorm run after run last week? 

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Just now, snowman19 said:

I was just about to say that Snowgoose. Fast, progressive flow, no -NAO block to slow it down and the GFS has been overamping shortwaves. The GFS op or ensembles are not to be trusted. Remember when it had the Super Bowl snowstorm run after run last week? 

At the same time though I would say the Euro based on seasonal tendency may be too far southeast.  Everything has trended NW.  If this system ultimately develops as advertised on the 06Z GFS and Euro I'm guessing the end solution is in between the two which would mean some sort of snow event occurs here.  The 12Z NAM is doing what I usually expect it to do with the northern energy in a system such as this, it's far north and slower and so little interaction is happening 

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13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

At the same time though I would say the Euro based on seasonal tendency may be too far southeast.  Everything has trended NW.  If this system ultimately develops as advertised on the 06Z GFS and Euro I'm guessing the end solution is in between the two which would mean some sort of snow event occurs here.  The 12Z NAM is doing what I usually expect it to do with the northern energy in a system such as this, it's far north and slower and so little interaction is happening 

Yea the NAM is not enthused at all. It seems only the GFS is so far, we'll have to see the other 12z runs, but I do not like this event. You have the energy coming under the departing storm, racing towards the coast and I don't believe it's as strong as the GFS is showing, it keeps overamping. Again, you have no 50/50 low, no -NAO blocking and fast flow aloft in a progressive pattern. There is nothing on the Atlantic side to slow the flow down. My guess, the GFS is out to lunch again like it was for this weekend 

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea I'm the NAM is not enthused at all. It seems only the GFS is so far, we'll have to see the other 12z runs, but I do not like this event. You have the energy coming under the departing storm, racing towards the coast and I don't believe it's as strong as the GFS is showing, it keeps overamping. Again, you have no 50/50 low, no -NAO blocking and fast flow aloft in a progressive pattern. My guess, the GFS is out to lunch again like it was for this weekend 

The GFS has been insanely bad this winter and it's mostly gone overlooked because there haven't been a whole lot of snow events.  It was awful on the clipper last week here, and it's worst job of all was probably the 1/6 snow and ice event in the southern US where it showed 8 inches of snow in Atlanta up until the last 12 hours when the RGEM and Euro showed a massive ice storm 

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12z GFS looks decent. Solid advisory event for the sub forum. Boundary layer temps are very marginal at best at the coast, but column above 950 looks cold enough to overcome that. I also don't think the solution should be as progressive as depicted given the massive vortex exiting stage right over eastern Quebec. At least this is something to track finally.

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Shouldn't be using the NAM for Thursdays storm - past 60 hours. Have to go with the most consistent model so far the GFS - remember a few days ago the GFS showed the follow up wave then lost it which it is famous for - only to bring it back a few days prior to the event. The Euro has had a southeast bias for east coast systems all winter - remember January 7th ?

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Shouldn't be using the NAM for Thursdays storm - past 60 hours. Have to go with the most consistent model so far the GFS - remember a few days ago the GFS showed the follow up wave then lost it which it is famous for - only to bring it back a few days prior to the event. The Euro has had a southeast bias for east coast systems all winter - remember January 7th ?

If you want to believe the GFS go right ahead. It's been horrific this winter. If you compare the upper level winds on the new 12z GFS to the 0z GFS they've gotten stronger. This is a progressive pattern with fast flow and no Atlantic blocking. I'm willing to bet a lot of money the GFS is going to loose the threat

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