Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February Model Discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

Recommended Posts

35 minutes ago, ag3 said:

It's remarkable to me that with this record breaking heat that JFK, ISP, BDR and other parts of the coast has more snow, relative to average, then north and west areas. Very unusual winter so far.

How far north and west? lol I'm sitting at 29" and most people up here are between 22-30", I'm just about half of my average, are those NYC locations already above average for snowfall? 

 

sullivan and northern Ulster are over 45" of snow for the season, so I disagree 

 

mostly everyone up here is within a couple inches current YTD and some are well over averages 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 561
  • Created
  • Last Reply
19 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

How far north and west? lol I'm sitting at 29" and most people up here are between 22-30", I'm just about half of my average, are those NYC locations already above average for snowfall? 

 

sullivan and northern Ulster are over 45" of snow for the season, so I disagree 

I think that statement would be correct for south and southwest of NYC not north and west. Like you say I'm sitting at 27.1 inches which is  just about average for this point in the season. Plus I've had a nice snow/sleet cover for the last 10 days 4 inches or so thick and going nowhere thanks to that sleet pack that laughs at the sun.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I think that statement would be correct for south and southwest of NYC not north and west. Like you say I'm sitting at 27.1 inches which is  just about average for this point in the season. Plus I've had a nice snow/sleet cover for the last 10 days 4 inches or so thick and going nowhere thanks to that sleet pack that laughs at the sun.

Yea not to mention some areas should undoubtedly go above average like craigsmore etc... especially with this coming weeks event looking to drop another foot in those higher elevation spots

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JFK average right now is about 10". They have 15". My point is that coastal locations, are higher then average and more snow then north and west, based on average.

You guys proved my point. You are all about average right now. ISP, BDR and JFK are all well above average. LGA is 1" above average and NYC is just about average.

In these types of winters, that is very rare. North and West usually does much better then the coast, but so far this year, that is not the case, relative to average.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, ag3 said:

JFK average right now is about 10". They have 15". My point is that coastal locations, are higher then average and more snow then north and west, based on average.

You guys proved my point. You are all about average right now. ISP, BDR and JFK are all well above average. LGA is 1" above average and NYC is just about average.

In these types of winters, that is very rare. North and West usually does much better then the coast, but so far this year, that is not the case, relative to average.

 

Outside of BGM, the coast is in the lead again like we have seen so often during the 2000's winters.

Snowfall departures through 2/1/17:

BTV...-15

ALB...-14.9

SYR...-5.2

BGM...+23.1

AVP...-8.2

ABE...-13.4

JFK....+3.5

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, ag3 said:

JFK average right now is about 10". They have 15". My point is that coastal locations, are higher then average and more snow then north and west, based on average.

You guys proved my point. You are all about average right now. ISP, BDR and JFK are all well above average. LGA is 1" above average and NYC is just about average.

In these types of winters, that is very rare. North and West usually does much better then the coast, but so far this year, that is not the case, relative to average.

 

I picked up what you were laying down and happen to agree for IMBY at least.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Outside of BGM, the coast is in the lead again like we have seen so often during the 2000's winters.

Snowfall departures through 2/1/17:

BTV...-15

ALB...-14.9

SYR...-5.2

BGM...+23.1

AVP...-8.2

ABE...-13.4

JFK....+3.5

 

This is the point I was trying to make. I was not being combative. I am amazed that with a top 5-10 warmest January and a warm December, that somehow the coast still pulled off the most snow, relative to average. This winter reminds me of a 1990s winter but in the 90s, the interior did extremely well, relative to average, when comparing to the coast. This winter is a remarkable one so far.

January was +5 to +7, yet January snowfall was well above average with 9"-13" at all coastal locations.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Outside of BGM, the coast is in the lead again like we have seen so often during the 2000's winters.

Snowfall departures through 2/1/17:

BTV...-15

ALB...-14.9

SYR...-5.2

BGM...+23.1

AVP...-8.2

ABE...-13.4

JFK....+3.5

Northeast Pa that is north of AVP have done well with snow this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

This is the point I was trying to make. I was not being combative. I am amazed that with a top 5-10 warmest January and a warm December, that somehow the coast still pulled off the most snow, relative to average. This winter reminds me of a 1990s winter but in the 90s, the interior did extremely well, relative to average, when comparing to the coast. This winter is a remarkable one so far.

January was +5 to +7, yet January snowfall was well above average with 9"-13" at all coastal locations.

 

I don't think Anyone was being combative, I agree with your point at a completely statistical level based on relative averages I guess

 

My only thinking on the specific matter was for a larger comparison not relative to our specific area but paints a better picture.

 

if city A averages 100" of snow and sees 110", they're +10, great season.... for their area ONLY

 

and if city B averages 200" of snow and sees 190" they're -10" not so great of a season... for their area ONLY... despite seeing 90" more than city A. 

 

Now if both city A and city B averages around the same then I'd agree... city A had a better winter...

 

imo comparing city A to city B on any level is a stretch as their relative average snowfalls are vastly different, sure relative to average city A had a better winter, but only specific to their location.

most the interior is nearly double on average for seasonal snowfall... (yes I get it, not as of late) but long term most places in the interior are around or above 60" and NYC area is around 30" or less.... 

 

again from a simply statistical, all numbers standpoint I agree... but I've never agreed with any comparing of season averages (winners and losers) for locales that don't see even remotely the same seasonalong term average in said category.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

This is the point I was trying to make. I was not being combative. I am amazed that with a top 5-10 warmest January and a warm December, that somehow the coast still pulled off the most snow, relative to average. This winter reminds me of a 1990s winter but in the 90s, the interior did extremely well, relative to average, when comparing to the coast. This winter is a remarkable one so far.

January was +5 to +7, yet January snowfall was well above average with 9"-13" at all coastal locations.

 

While the snow cover was very short lived at places like JFK, it was a record amount of January snowfall for top ten warmth.

Last winter was the first 40"/40 snowfall and temperature season for JFK. This January came very close the first 10"/40 January.

 

Top 10 warmest JFK Januaries and snowfall

1950...40.5...T

1998...39.6...0.1

1990...39.4..1.4

2006...39.1..2.1

2002...38.9...4.1

2017...38.6...11.7

1949...38.1...5.2

1975...37.9...0.6

2007...37.3...1.7

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm curious, are those averages based on just the last twenty years or the long term mean since records began?

The reason why I ask is because the numbers at the coast have been inflated since 2000 due to an unusual amount of well above average seasons.

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

 

central park all time, excluding Jan of this year so far

 

even in the last 10 years CP has recorded 

four- >50 seasons

five <30 season 

and 1 in between 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

This is the point I was trying to make. I was not being combative. I am amazed that with a top 5-10 warmest January and a warm December, that somehow the coast still pulled off the most snow, relative to average. This winter reminds me of a 1990s winter but in the 90s, the interior did extremely well, relative to average, when comparing to the coast. This winter is a remarkable one so far.

January was +5 to +7, yet January snowfall was well above average with 9"-13" at all coastal locations.

 

Its impressive for that big of a departure to be at normal snow. I'm not shocked that areas north into sne are below normal etc. 

 

outside a a few years if we do bad they will probably do bad. We might be at 10 inches and they will be at 30 but both still suck. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Outside of BGM, the coast is in the lead again like we have seen so often during the 2000's winters.

Snowfall departures through 2/1/17:

BTV...-15

ALB...-14.9

SYR...-5.2

BGM...+23.1

AVP...-8.2

ABE...-13.4

JFK....+3.5

BGM doing great with lake effect 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm curious, are those averages based on just the last twenty years or the long term mean since records began?

The reason why I ask is because the numbers at the coast have been inflated since 2000 due to an unusual amount of well above average seasons.

 

The coast since 2000 has averaged 30"-45" of snow, depending on location.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Its impressive for that big of a departure to be at normal snow. I'm not shocked that areas north into sne are below normal etc. 

 

outside a a few years if we do bad they will probably do bad. We might be at 10 inches and they will be at 30 but both still suck. 

JFK is at 15" right now. 3"-5" above average. LGA, BDR and ISP are also above normal snowfall to this point. NYC and EWR are right at average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ag3 said:

 

This is the point I was trying to make. I was not being combative. I am amazed that with a top 5-10 warmest January and a warm December, that somehow the coast still pulled off the most snow, relative to average. This winter reminds me of a 1990s winter but in the 90s, the interior did extremely well, relative to average, when comparing to the coast. This winter is a remarkable one so far.

January was +5 to +7, yet January snowfall was well above average with 9"-13" at all coastal locations.

 

its one storm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Right, which is well above the long term average since records began.

 

Average is a function of the mean of a variable over a particular interval, which is not static. The 30 year running averages (1986-2016) are now up around 29-31" for locations E CNJ through NE NJ and parts of NYC. Long term average for NYC has always been around 28-29". So one can no longer say recent years have been merely attributed to luck at the coast. The 70s-90s were anomalous in the opposite direction.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

The high for next Tuesdays storm is north of recent runs, very little snow even N+W, 2-4" tops none for dusting to 1" for NYC, lots of rain 

 

^GFS 

Can't trust the details of the surface features on the  models past a few days this winter - we are in a very unfavorable chaotic pattern for snowstorms -only favorable for nickel and dime events - warmth has won out since the thaw started and the pattern will remain transient ........cold - milder - cold - and so on........just look at the 500 mb for the next couple weeks

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

The high for next Tuesdays storm is north of recent runs, very little snow even N+W, 2-4" tops none for dusting to 1" for NYC, lots of rain 

 

^GFS 

Shocker. The GFS has been a broken record all winter long. It's the first to show a big snow solution, sticks to it for days, run after run, then totally pulls the plug and flips as we get closer in time. Hit the repeat button....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...