Morris Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 43 minutes ago, Morris said: Models lost the cutters in the long range. Alot of cold air in Canada on the GFS. Like I have been saying, the first 2 weeks of March looks great for possible snow for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Models lost the cutters in the long range. Alot of cold air in Canada on the GFS. Like I have been saying, the first 2 weeks of March looks great for possible snow for our area. I think I'd tread lightly on using the word "great" given seasonality and the advancement toward Spring ... but anyone who thinks that winter is over because of this ridiculous warmth is likely in for a rude surprise in terms of cold and possibly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Models lost the cutters in the long range. Alot of cold air in Canada on the GFS. Like I have been saying, the first 2 weeks of March looks great for possible snow for our area. 12z GFS shows a 1 to 3 inch snow next friday into saturday. Time to get excited, lol. But at least we have signs of cold air in the long range. Seems as if we have halfway decent odds of seeing some snow in March this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, danstorm said: I think I'd tread lightly on using the word "great" given seasonality and the advancement toward Spring ... but anyone who thinks that winter is over because of this ridiculous warmth is likely in for a rude surprise in terms of cold and possibly snow. we all know who those folks are -lol Billy 8,167 posts Location:Wallkill, Ulster ID: 486 Posted Tuesday at 08:05 PM · Report post On 2/21/2017 at 5:44 PM, Brian5671 said: 18z GFS looks like something out of mid April the next 7-10 days GFS is about 1-3 days of normal to slightly below.... the rest is torch till mid march.... winters a goner and I'm ready for spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: we all know who those folks are -lol Billy 8,167 posts Location:Wallkill, Ulster ID: 486 Posted Tuesday at 08:05 PM · Report post GFS is about 1-3 days of normal to slightly below.... the rest is torch till mid march.... winters a goner and I'm ready for spring Big deal-the GFS is cold day 8 plus....seen that movie before.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Big deal-the GFS is cold day 8 plus....seen that movie before.... so you disagree with Danstorm the Meteorologist ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Big deal-the GFS is cold day 8 plus....seen that movie before.... Every model is cold. Another poster who thinks winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Every model is cold. Another poster who thinks winter is over Not over, we have a shot at some cold and snow, but it will be shorter than modeled and we'll torch like crazy around this last period. Same ol song all winter "BIG cold and snow" is coming! "Snowiest month ever!" "Winter of 95-96 redux!" Too much hype with little to no basis behind any of it. I've bought the modeled cold period 3x this winter and been burned on every single one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: so you disagree with Danstorm the Meteorologist ? I'm a fake met bro and mainly a troll - what makes me think the GFS may be right is the fact that there is near universal agreement on the AO tanking in the near term and a strong agreement of the PNA heading toward neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 minute ago, danstorm said: I'm a fake met bro and mainly a troll - what makes me think the GFS may be right is the fact that there is near universal agreement on the AO tanking in the near term and a strong agreement of the PNA heading toward neutral. If that's real, then we'll have a good shot at another storm-2 if we're lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, danstorm said: I'm a fake met bro and mainly a troll - what makes me think the GFS may be right is the fact that there is near universal agreement on the AO tanking in the near term and a strong agreement of the PNA heading toward neutral. Add to that the MJO is in favorable phases and the strat warming going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 28 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Add to that the MJO is in favorable phases and the strat warming going on the MJO has been a non event all winter-it was in the cold phases in late Jan and there was no cold air anywhere. Strat warm has more weight IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: the MJO has been a non event all winter-it was in the cold phases in late Jan and there was no cold air anywhere. Strat warm has more weight IMO. There is a lag with the mjo MJO going through 8 -1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: There is a lag with the mjo MJO going through 8 -1-2 We got our blizzard in February while it was in phase 7 and New England did very well into 8. But the MJO phases had much less cold to work with this winter. The lag to watch was with the big SOI drops this winter. We had 2 intervals of cold and snow about 15-20 days after the lowest SOI drops. EPS weeklies bring colder temps back here March 6-13th roughly 15-20 days after the recent -50 SOI drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 56 minutes ago, bluewave said: We got our blizzard in February while it was in phase 7 and New England did very well into 8. But the MJO phases had much less cold to work with this winter. The lag to watch was with the big SOI drops this winter. We had 2 intervals of cold and snow about 15-20 days after the lowest SOI drops. EPS weeklies bring colder temps back here March 6-13th roughly 15-20 days after the recent -50 SOI drop. That's what I've been looking at. We should have a small window for another winter weather event between (roughly) the 5th-15th. Other than that small window we should see well above average temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 2 hours ago, Rjay said: That's what I've been looking at. We should have a small window for another winter weather event between (roughly) the 5th-15th. Other than that small window we should see well above average temperatures. Agree with you. March looks like it will go down as yet another well above normal, warm month for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 0Z gfs has alot of blocking with 3 chances of snowfall. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 And of course the Euro and Canadian look absolutely nothing at all like the GFS in the long range. The GFS has been in a world all to its own this entire winter, alternate universe. The Euro has been beating it so bad it's not even funny, the verification scores aren't even close, just blowing it away. It's actually embarrassing how horrible it is. I don't know what the GFS has been smoking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: And of course the Euro and Canadian look absolutely nothing at all like the GFS in the long range. The GFS has been in a world all to its own this entire winter, alternate universe. The Euro has been beating it so bad it's not even funny, the verification scores aren't even close, just blowing it away. It's actually embarrassing how horrible it is. I don't know what the GFS has been smoking... You may want to take a look again. Yeah GFS looks too aggressive but both the Euro and CMC have semblance of blocking showing up as soon as next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: And of course the Euro and Canadian look absolutely nothing at all like the GFS in the long range. The GFS has been in a world all to its own this entire winter, alternate universe. The Euro has been beating it so bad it's not even funny, the verification scores aren't even close, just blowing it away. It's actually embarrassing how horrible it is. I don't know what the GFS has been smoking... What? Euro also has blocking and gfs and Euro show a possible clipper into miller b system for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: What? Euro also has blocking and gfs and Euro show a possible clipper into miller b system for next weekend. Ensembles should be used beyond Day 7. An Op run is close to useless in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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