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UlsterCountySnowZ

February Model Discussion

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

GFS hasn't been doing bad this winter. The Euro on the other hand.

GFS was the model that was most bullish on the super bowl storm, and it was also the most bullish on a front end dump for tuesday. It has been horrible lately and overhyping every potential event, so we definitely need to see other models come aboard before believing this. 

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6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

GFS was the model that was most bullish on the super bowl storm, and it was also the most bullish on a front end dump for tuesday. It has been horrible lately and overhyping every potential event, so we definitely need to see other models come aboard before believing this. 

Other models are on board

AO is falling and the PNA is rising

This looks legit

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Other models are on board

AO is falling and the PNA is rising

This looks legit

What other model? I don't see any other major model on board for a decent snowstorm. GGEM isn't. We'll see if Euro improves later tonight. 

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4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

which models are on board ?

Everyone

Are you seriously taking the CMC seriously?

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

What other model? I don't see any other major model on board for a decent snowstorm. GGEM isn't. We'll see if Euro improves later tonight. 

Every model has the wave. It's just the location of the wave

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Shades of January 2008. Cold air takes too long to arrive and by then the precip is all gone

What shades? The storm happened already?

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Remember the Anafront last winter? The wave kept on coming back northwest . Not saying this is going to be the same but we should watch out for that. The ridge is still there. The AO looks good, PNA also is rising. Recipe for a nice storm.

Anyway, off to bed. Work in the morning.

 

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Shades of January 2008. Cold air takes too long to arrive and by then the precip is all gone

As I recall it was up to 50 in NYC within hours of that storm...think this would be a different setup.

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Everyone

Are you seriously taking the CMC seriously?

Every model has the wave. It's just the location of the wave

What shades? The storm happened already?

The CMC has been better than GFS lately. CMC backed down on the super bowl storm more quickly, and never showed a front end dump for Tuesday. GFS has been by far the worst model lately, so we have to be skeptical about this big snowstorm solution it's showing. 

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3 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

As I recall it was up to 50 in NYC within hours of that storm...think this would be a different setup.

That storm was a different setup. The storm was dependent on the low bombing out near out area. The area was under a heavy snow warning with 6-12 inches predicted.  The low bombed out near SNE instead of near our area. I hate that storm lol.

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Just now, winterwx21 said:

The CMC has been better than GFS lately. CMC backed down on the super bowl storm more quickly, and never showed a front end dump for Tuesday. GFS has been by far the worst model lately, so we have to be skeptical about this big snowstorm solution it's showing. 

I didn't say a big snowstorm is on the way but a nice snow event isnt off the table.

Heck, I would be happy with a 1-3 inch event lol

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GFS may be out to lunch but I'm sorry, the CMC is too.  The GFS isn't going to be THAT wrong on this sort of setup at 84 hours.  The 500 pattern to me doesn't look conducive at all to what the GFS shows but I think something way more dynamic than the CMC will occur 

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2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The Ukie would produce something for the area

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

It looks like it's more west of the GFS at 72.  That may actually be a rain event for the coast potentially although no way to be sure 

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During the February 1-15, 1981-2010 period, an EPO-/PNA+/AO- pattern saw the percentage of days on which measurable snowfall fell in NYC that was 30% above climatology (4" or greater was 15% above climatology). This does not mean that there would be a big storm, but at least some accumulation is most definitely something that bears watching.

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAVGEM is insanely far NW too by NavGEM standards 

I feel like the coast will have to start worrying about temps. Hopefully not. 

But, if the rates are like the GFS, then that shouldn't be a problem. 

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The way things have gone so far this winter I am certainly not banking on a snowstorm for the NYC metro on Thursday, at least not yet. Its good to see some of the models showing a storm though, hoping with the NAO going negative and the PNA positive things might actually work in our favor for once. Would like to see where things sit 24 hours from now.

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Looks like there are two camps for the Monday system. The southern track has gained more support since the 06z run. Hopefully we see it gain some more.

There's still enough time for this system to trend favorably. Look what happened with the one today. ;)

12z

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_16.png

06z

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_17.png

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On 2/8/2017 at 0:13 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

At least a half dozen snow chances on tonight's GFS run

Looks like the pattern has certainly taken a turn.  Today was just the first shot.

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