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February Model Discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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59 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Just out of curiosity how did these models that are seeing something Super Bowl weekend do a week or so before the last event or the ones prior, did they all have it in their sites ? I am just wondering if any of them this year have been consistent when showing something this far out ?

The models are good enough these days that you can usually see a signal pretty far out. If you look at GFS runs from a week ago, it was already showing activity around the period of February 3rd.

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25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Pretty terrible pattern advertised on the 12z GFS at least for the next seven days. Multiple injections of cold air but the Southern stream goes compleltely dead.

CMC shows an inland runner for next week and the GFS shows a miss

I like where the GFS is with that storm, just a weak low off the coast.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

CMC shows an inland runner for next week and the GFS shows a miss

I like where the GFS is with that storm, just a weak low off the coast.

The GFS trended away from a big storm. The energy goes to El Paso instead and then gets sheared out. What eventually sprouts the coastal storm is an entirely different shortwave. By the time that comes through, heights over the Atlantic are about as flat as a pancake and the system is kicked OTS.

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS trended away from a big storm. The energy goes to El Paso instead and then gets sheared out. What eventually sprouts the coastal storm is an entirely different shortwave. By the time that comes through, heights over the Atlantic are about as flat as a pancake and the system is kicked OTS.

1 run isnt a trend

It's way better than showing an inland storm like the CMC is showing. Long week to go with multiple waves

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35 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

1 run isnt a trend

It's way better than showing an inland storm like the CMC is showing. Long week to go with multiple waves

I'd prefer the cmc solution, over what GFS has as of now, generally in recent patterns, those storms tend to trend west and favor the coast, ill take 6-10" then tapering off as drizzle Over watching the coast get another 2feet lol

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS trended away from a big storm. The energy goes to El Paso instead and then gets sheared out. What eventually sprouts the coastal storm is an entirely different shortwave. By the time that comes through, heights over the Atlantic are about as flat as a pancake and the system is kicked OTS.

Seems like people have forgotten about what a terrible job the GFS did with the January 7th event at this range - todays 12Z GEFS is not in agreement with the OP run.

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_40.png

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40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS has a good signal. 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_42.pnggfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_42.png

This storms has been pushed back now nearly 48 hours.... originally a Super Bowl Sunday afternoon into Monday event, and Now GFS has it as a late Monday early Tue

 

this things wayyyyy out in fantasy land, especially now, its past the 240 mark lol

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