Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February Model Discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 561
  • Created
  • Last Reply
32 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You need the trough to go negative tilt faster.

The surface low develops pretty far South, but you have at best a neutrally tilted trough, and that's not going to bring it back towards the coast.

namconus_z500_vort_neus_27.png

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_26.png

Not unless you have another piece of energy dive into the offshore low and bomb it out. Which sort of happens further north to clock eastern New England.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's probably too late for us to have the minor changes that are possible matter. Like it was mentioned, the trough has to tilt negative much sooner to allow Atlantic moisture to flow westward. That might happen in time for E MA and should give ME a big snowstorm, but it's way late for this area. Boston needs fairly minor changes for this to be a significant event there. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the models are actually very active with the Southern stream over the next 7-14 days, but it looks like at least for now that they have very little Northern interaction, so these closed upper level systems cross the deep South and then OTS. That's a very unusual pattern, and I would bet that at some point, one of these ULL are going to get involved with the Northern branch and blow up into a major system. The end of the 12z GGEM does exactly this, and the GFS wasn't far off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

the models are actually very active with the Southern stream over the next 7-14 days, but it looks like at least for now that they have very little Northern interaction, so these closed upper level systems cross the deep South and then OTS. That's a very unusual pattern, and I would bet that at some point, one of these ULL are going to get involved with the Northern branch and blow up into a major system. The end of the 12z GGEM does exactly this, and the GFS wasn't far off.

It looks like a cutoff low pattern which usually starts mid to late March. I suppose it's possible it starts a couple of weeks early... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like a cutoff low pattern which usually starts mid to late March. I suppose it's possible it starts a couple of weeks early... 

Maybe it will start right at the end of February or beginning of March when it's supposed to get cold again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like a cutoff low pattern which usually starts mid to late March. I suppose it's possible it starts a couple of weeks early... 

The Euro has a large cut off low off the SE Canadaian coast that helps to setup a major block for the US East coast towards the end of next week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The Euro has a large cut off low off the SE Canadaian coast that helps to setup a major block for the US East coast towards the end of next week.

 

 

With an SOI crash / that should not cut IMO . That day 9 system should come under . What that means here  ? Naso sure yet .  The EURO has over amped SW out of the 4 corners all year .

 

The GFS  has more confluence and with a - EPO that makes more sense .

 

I think that will belly under . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Mophstymeo said:

I would've phrased it differently, but I was thinking much the same thing. We have been burned often this winter by signals in the medium-range. Still, it looks pretty.

You on LI have not been burned. You have 25"+ of snow. Well above average so far.

Same goes for NYC and it's boroughs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

the models are actually very active with the Southern stream over the next 7-14 days, but it looks like at least for now that they have very little Northern interaction, so these closed upper level systems cross the deep South and then OTS. That's a very unusual pattern, and I would bet that at some point, one of these ULL are going to get involved with the Northern branch and blow up into a major system. The end of the 12z GGEM does exactly this, and the GFS wasn't far off.

Euro does it... nice soaker 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, ag3 said:

You on LI have not been burned. You have 25"+ of snow. Well above average so far.

Same goes for NYC and it's boroughs.

Please don't misunderstand me. I'm not referring to the total snowfall. With regard to that, LI is sitting at about average.  I'm referring to the models and what they've been showing in the medium- to long-range. According to the Euro last Thursday, we should've been digging out from a major snow storm just about now. And then . . . poof. The storm signal was gone and hello blustery but clear skies. That's what Snowman19 was referring to and what I was commenting on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Mophstymeo said:

Please don't misunderstand me. I'm not referring to the total snowfall. With regard to that, LI is sitting at about average.  I'm referring to the models and what they've been showing in the medium- to long-range. According to the Euro last Thursday, we should've been digging out from a major snow storm just about now. And then . . . poof. The storm signal was gone and hello blustery but clear skies. That's what Snowman19 was referring to and what I was commenting on.

It was 1 or 2 runs in the fantasy range.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First run of the euro weeklies in like forever that actually has a colder week 3 instead of a warmer one early March.

Strong -EPO pattern with the PV migrating over to Hudson Bay. The weeklies have done a decent job through

week 3 on the teleconnection patterns this winter. Cold is centered over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes 

with an above/below normal battle zone over NC/VA as cold air presses SE against a piece of the SE Ridge holding on.

Our sensible weather will be determined by where the baroclinic zone sets up between the -EPO and lingering SE ridge.

 

That's the tricky part Bluewave, where does the baroclinic zone setup? It gets tricky come March because the wavelengths/spacing are doing their springtime shortening at that point

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

That's the tricky part Bluewave, where does the baroclinic zone setup? It gets tricky come March because the wavelengths/spacing are doing their springtime shortening at that point

Early March is a really good time for this to happen though, it fits a lot of the analogs.  Unc's 1960 comes to mind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Mophstymeo said:

Please don't misunderstand me. I'm not referring to the total snowfall. With regard to that, LI is sitting at about average.  I'm referring to the models and what they've been showing in the medium- to long-range. According to the Euro last Thursday, we should've been digging out from a major snow storm just about now. And then . . . poof. The storm signal was gone and hello blustery but clear skies. That's what Snowman19 was referring to and what I was commenting on.

This is why you look at patterns and don't hug models. Isotherm never liked the Thursday storm.  But he's pretty big on the pattern at the end of the month and the beginning of March.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...