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February Model Discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

The trend is undeniable on the CMC: slower, deeper NS energy and faster SS energy. Hopefully this continues.

gem_z500_vort_us_fh90_trend.gif

the models only started trending last Sunday for this past Thursdays storm -repeat ?  this GEM is trending towards the Euro

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2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

The ns digs a bit more this run

I think we won't really know until the current storm fully develops offshore and leaves our area.  We've seen this before where details can't be ironed out until the current system gets out of the way.

Give it til Monday night or Tuesday.  Using the "48 hr rule" is usually good with coastals.

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6 minutes ago, Enigma said:

I am willing to state that next week is our last chance of a 6+ inch snowfall for the season.

you haven't been around too long have you ? look at the record books - still have 7 - 8 weeks remaining on the calendar where there have been 6 + inch storms

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1 hour ago, Paragon said:

I think we won't really know until the current storm fully develops offshore and leaves our area.  We've seen this before where details can't be ironed out until the current system gets out of the way.

Give it til Monday night or Tuesday.  Using the "48 hr rule" is usually good with coastals.

if you can get the current storm to stall near 50/50 the Thursday northern branch would try and dig southeast towards the mid atlantic and merge with the southern stream system  to get under and around the 50/50 need stronger blocking and that can still happen so can't totally write this one off yet..........the EURO showed this a couple of days ago the phasing and the storm was stacked vertically to the south - so maybe the EURO will go back to that solution

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4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

you haven't been around too long have you ? look at the record books - still have 7 - 8 weeks remaining on the calendar where there have been 6 + inch storms

I am a red tagger/2005 PSU meteo grad. I've been around long enough. Based upon my perception of the pattern, whether it be somewhat tongue and cheek, I think our chances are done (for NYC metro) for 6+ event.

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3 minutes ago, Enigma said:

I am a red tagger/2005 PSU meteo grad. I've been around long enough. Based upon my perception of the pattern, whether it be somewhat tongue and cheek, I think our chances are done (for NYC metro) for 6+ event.

The pattern doesn't look good for a 6+ event? It surely does this upcoming week if the 2 streams meet. After that we will get a brief warmup but then there are signs of another cool down with a possible storm near the end of February. Winter isn't even over yet.

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9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The pattern doesn't look good for a 6+ event? It surely does this upcoming week if the 2 streams meet. After that we will get a brief warmup but then there are signs of another cool down with a possible storm near the end of February. Winter isn't even over yet.

Read the thread. I said in the post prior that next week is our last chance. My suspicion is that the Atlantic log jam will prevent the phase. 

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