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February Model Discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

GFS hasn't been doing bad this winter. The Euro on the other hand.

GFS was the model that was most bullish on the super bowl storm, and it was also the most bullish on a front end dump for tuesday. It has been horrible lately and overhyping every potential event, so we definitely need to see other models come aboard before believing this. 

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6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

GFS was the model that was most bullish on the super bowl storm, and it was also the most bullish on a front end dump for tuesday. It has been horrible lately and overhyping every potential event, so we definitely need to see other models come aboard before believing this. 

Other models are on board

AO is falling and the PNA is rising

This looks legit

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4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

which models are on board ?

Everyone

Are you seriously taking the CMC seriously?

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

What other model? I don't see any other major model on board for a decent snowstorm. GGEM isn't. We'll see if Euro improves later tonight. 

Every model has the wave. It's just the location of the wave

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Shades of January 2008. Cold air takes too long to arrive and by then the precip is all gone

What shades? The storm happened already?

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Remember the Anafront last winter? The wave kept on coming back northwest . Not saying this is going to be the same but we should watch out for that. The ridge is still there. The AO looks good, PNA also is rising. Recipe for a nice storm.

Anyway, off to bed. Work in the morning.

 

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Everyone

Are you seriously taking the CMC seriously?

Every model has the wave. It's just the location of the wave

What shades? The storm happened already?

The CMC has been better than GFS lately. CMC backed down on the super bowl storm more quickly, and never showed a front end dump for Tuesday. GFS has been by far the worst model lately, so we have to be skeptical about this big snowstorm solution it's showing. 

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3 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

As I recall it was up to 50 in NYC within hours of that storm...think this would be a different setup.

That storm was a different setup. The storm was dependent on the low bombing out near out area. The area was under a heavy snow warning with 6-12 inches predicted.  The low bombed out near SNE instead of near our area. I hate that storm lol.

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Just now, winterwx21 said:

The CMC has been better than GFS lately. CMC backed down on the super bowl storm more quickly, and never showed a front end dump for Tuesday. GFS has been by far the worst model lately, so we have to be skeptical about this big snowstorm solution it's showing. 

I didn't say a big snowstorm is on the way but a nice snow event isnt off the table.

Heck, I would be happy with a 1-3 inch event lol

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During the February 1-15, 1981-2010 period, an EPO-/PNA+/AO- pattern saw the percentage of days on which measurable snowfall fell in NYC that was 30% above climatology (4" or greater was 15% above climatology). This does not mean that there would be a big storm, but at least some accumulation is most definitely something that bears watching.

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The way things have gone so far this winter I am certainly not banking on a snowstorm for the NYC metro on Thursday, at least not yet. Its good to see some of the models showing a storm though, hoping with the NAO going negative and the PNA positive things might actually work in our favor for once. Would like to see where things sit 24 hours from now.

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