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February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen

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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

As best as I can recall yeah. Though the flurries forecast could have possibly been from the afternoon and so they could have upped it later on without me being aware. Remember thinking that maybe we could luck into the possibility of an inch or so that they were calling for just to our south and east. Got lucky, I did. :)

Wait, I thought that you were talking about PD1! Lol

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5 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

Is this considered a big storm? Or is the possibility there? 

At this point we would probably be looking at roughly a 3-6 inch (IF TEMPS COOPERATE) deal because the system is progressive.

I will say though that the 500's continue to improve which would allow the low more room to amplify/intensify so I would not be shocked to see some improvement in regards to the 3-6 at this time.

 

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Agree with this, it's all we have. Of course no doubt I will be monitoring every model run from now thru late Wednesday lol. 

The one good aspect of this year is that when things have failed, they've at least had the courtesy of failing relatively early...avoids those near game time disappointments after staying up late for several nights!

(ETA:  And I had enough of late game time disappointments in Games 5, 6, 7 of last year's World Series...no disrespect to the Cubs or their fans, but that was tough! :lol:)

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Wait, I thought that you were talking about PD1! Lol

I think that he is.  The forecast was for an inch or two on Sunday morning and I remember shoveling about 3" at about 8PM and thinking that I wouldn't have much to shovel in the morning.  I woke up before sunrise on Monday and turned on my weather radio to hear the mets giving snow totals of over a foot already in VA.  I jumped out of bed and saw that the first rail of our split rail fence was under snow.  And that was before it got crazy heavy just after sunrise.

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5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I was. Why? Am I going senile and missing something? :)

Ha!  Yeah, I got a bit lost myself reading those discussion...I think there was a crossing in the talk between the Jan. 2000 event and PD-I, with both "suddenly" ending up far more significant in a short period of time ("don't cross the storms!" haha!).  I wasn't here for either of those (moved to the area in 2001), but certainly read and heard a lot about them!  Wish I could have experienced PD-I, sounds like it would have been really cool!

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I was. Why? Am I going senile and missing something? :)

The best and worst part of that storm for me was reading the newspaper on the days just after the storm and everyone comparing it to the Knickerbocker Storm, it was a "once in 50 year storm," and the "storm of a lifetime."  That was all pretty exciting but I also felt pretty sad that I may have seen the biggest storm of my life at such a young age.  What did I have to look forward to?!?  Little did I know.

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1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I think that he is.  The forecast was for an inch or two on Sunday morning and I remember shoveling about 3" at about 8PM and thinking that I wouldn't have much to shovel in the morning.  I woke up before sunrise on Monday and turned on my weather radio to hear the mets giving snow totals of over a foot already in VA.  I jumped out of bed and saw that the first rail of our split rail fence was under snow.  And that was before it got crazy heavy just after sunrise.

Shoveling 3" at 8pm? Were you in Pikesville at the time? Don't even think I had even seen any snow in the air by the time I went to bed at 8 or 9. Only started snowing up my way when the low exploded off the coast later that night. 

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I was in middle school during the Blizzard of '79 and have a different memory of it.  I was in northern Calvert which was the bulls-eye for that greatest of storms.  Although forecasts were way underdone, they weren't for just flurries/light amounts - we had warnings for a 4-8" type snowstorm.  Snow started mid-afternoon Sunday with a temp of 7 degrees, and it we had a good 6-plus inches by before midnight.

I never saw an official amount for our area, but it had to be at least 36" with drifts of over 6 feet.  One ob we did hear was 6" in one hour from someone in the area.  Winds must have been gusting 50-60.  I mean you could not see the woods 50 feet behind my parents' house at times!  I've seen some great storms (1996, 2003, 2010, 2016) but none compare to that great white hurricane of 1979.

 

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3 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

I was in middle school during the Blizzard of '79 and have a different memory of it.  I was in northern Calvert which was the bulls-eye for that greatest of storms.  Although forecasts were way underdone, they weren't for just flurries/light amounts - we had warnings for a 4-8" type snowstorm.  Snow started mid-afternoon Sunday with a temp of 7 degrees, and it we had a good 6-plus inches by before midnight.

I never saw an official amount for our area, but it had to be at least 36" with drifts of over 6 feet.  One ob we did hear was 6" in one hour from someone in the area.  Winds must have been gusting 50-60.  I mean you could not see the woods 50 feet behind my parents' house at times!  I've seen some great storms (1996, 2003, 2010, 2016) but none compare to that great white hurricane of 1979.

 

Think the reasons we are seeing such a timing difference on the initial snowfall may have to do with the evolution of the storm. We had the upper level impulse ride underneath our region in the afternoon/evening giving southern portions of our region snow with a somewhat sharp cutoff to the north. I am guessing I fell north of the cutoff and only began to see snow after the upper low got off the coast and exploded. I might actually have to pull out Kocins' book tonight and read up on it to see if that was the case.

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