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February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen

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59 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

For those that know no quit. That draw to the inside straight expecting to win. That go that extra mile even though their car is running on fumes. That put half their paycheck into the lottery saying this time I will win. That expect the winter of 16/17 to actually produce....

I SALUTE YOU! You are one of the few, the proud, and an absolute depraved masochist. 

That being said. Overnight runs still suck. According to the models the slim chances of a followup low Thur/Fri have gotten even slimmer. And any chances of a post day 10 storm are slipping away as both the GEFS and the EPS now seem to want to hold the energy back in the southwest instead of ejecting all or part of it eastward.

One positive note though. Phil says six more weeks of winter. :)

 

MJO will be our white night. We only have to wait another 10 days or so.

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

For those that know no quit. That draw to the inside straight expecting to win. That go that extra mile even though their car is running on fumes. That put half their paycheck into the lottery saying this time I will win. That expect the winter of 16/17 to actually produce....

I SALUTE YOU! You are one of the few, the proud, and an absolute depraved masochist. 

That being said. Overnight runs still suck. According to the models the slim chances of a followup low Thur/Fri have gotten even slimmer. And any chances of a post day 10 storm are slipping away as both the GEFS and the EPS now seem to want to hold the energy back in the southwest instead of ejecting all or part of it eastward.

One positive note though. Phil says six more weeks of winter. :)

 

You me and bob need to bring this home. Or I fear the natives might show up at my door a little angry. 

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6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

GFS offering up hints of a couple modest chances. Something to track to rapid failure before the mid month torch arrives. Rooting for 70 on PD weekend.

around day 10-13 could be a very very mediocre low level threat window as a transient trough builds in the east before the trough crashes into the west coast and blows the whole CONUS to crap.  The odd thing is the progression of the MJO would suggest that trough should lock in and retrograde not get pushed out.  Either the MJO is going to get bullied by a more dominant driver or the models are just having trouble seeing its influence once out in time beyond 12 days.  Another factor could be out towards day 15 the MJO while still quite a high amplitude wave starts to fade.  That could show how dominant other drivers are that perhaps the models see the MJO influence and develop a typical MJO phase 8 pattern for all of a few days when the MJO is spiking off the charts but as soon is the wave fades slightly it is overrun again by other factors.  

My take on the look the next couple weeks is that its pretty bad.  If we were in anything other then a total dud winter we would probably view the next 2 weeks as a relaxation or crap pattern.  Only because its been awful is it anything else.  That said the MJO signal is not fading and continues to amplify into phase 8.  The models do begin to develop a more typical phase 8 response but then blow it up in the long range.  My only hope is perhaps since that is far enough out in time they are wrong and once the eastern trough sets in it doesn't break down so easily.  Otherwise its on to March and praying for a last second hail mary. 

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20 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

So quantitatively, how stingy has this winter been in terms of record-keeping?

It depends on specific location.  Places like Richmond and the eastern shore are doing pretty good actually mostly due to one storm and their very low snow climo.  But for most of the mid atlantic its been awful.  My specific location is on pace to have our third worse winter ever in 122 years of records.  Even a fluke 6" event would only bump me to 4th worst winter in 122 years lol.  So absent a crazy turn around its going to end up on the god awful list up here.  The cities are a bit different as their climo is lower so one fluke can surge them up the list faster but they also are doing even worse right now.  Baltimore I think still has their worst winter ever record in play if they get no more snow.  Bottom line is so far its been in line with the truly epic fail winters on record. 

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26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

around day 10-13 could be a very very mediocre low level threat window as a transient trough builds in the east before the trough crashes into the west coast and blows the whole CONUS to crap.  The odd thing is the progression of the MJO would suggest that trough should lock in and retrograde not get pushed out.  Either the MJO is going to get bullied by a more dominant driver or the models are just having trouble seeing its influence once out in time beyond 12 days.  Another factor could be out towards day 15 the MJO while still quite a high amplitude wave starts to fade.  That could show how dominant other drivers are that perhaps the models see the MJO influence and develop a typical MJO phase 8 pattern for all of a few days when the MJO is spiking off the charts but as soon is the wave fades slightly it is overrun again by other factors.  

My take on the look the next couple weeks is that its pretty bad.  If we were in anything other then a total dud winter we would probably view the next 2 weeks as a relaxation or crap pattern.  Only because its been awful is it anything else.  That said the MJO signal is not fading and continues to amplify into phase 8.  The models do begin to develop a more typical phase 8 response but then blow it up in the long range.  My only hope is perhaps since that is far enough out in time they are wrong and once the eastern trough sets in it doesn't break down so easily.  Otherwise its on to March and praying for a last second hail mary. 

I don't know how much of a lag in the atmospheric response is typically expected with an propagating MJO signal of significant amplitude. Perhaps in future model cycles the transient EC trough currently being depicted will become a more stable feature. At this point there isn't much else to latch onto. SSW maybe? lol. If it doesn't work out, we may be punting the month of February, and given how this whole winter has gone, getting a March hail mary really would be quite a miracle.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Remember when tomorrow was a modest 6-10" event on almost all guidance? 

I wouldn't characterize a 6-10" event as modest especially this winter lol.

But yeah at one point there was a pretty decent signal. Of course we see that a lot in this region. Seems worse this winter because virtually nothing has worked out.

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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It depends on specific location.  Places like Richmond and the eastern shore are doing pretty good actually mostly due to one storm and their very low snow climo.  But for most of the mid atlantic its been awful.  My specific location is on pace to have our third worse winter ever in 122 years of records.  Even a fluke 6" event would only bump me to 4th worst winter in 122 years lol.  So absent a crazy turn around its going to end up on the god awful list up here.  The cities are a bit different as their climo is lower so one fluke can surge them up the list faster but they also are doing even worse right now.  Baltimore I think still has their worst winter ever record in play if they get no more snow.  Bottom line is so far its been in line with the truly epic fail winters on record. 

JB says Euro is holding back southern branch too much. Expects a major east coast storm day 12 or sometthing

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56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

around day 10-13 could be a very very mediocre low level threat window as a transient trough builds in the east before the trough crashes into the west coast and blows the whole CONUS to crap.  The odd thing is the progression of the MJO would suggest that trough should lock in and retrograde not get pushed out.  Either the MJO is going to get bullied by a more dominant driver or the models are just having trouble seeing its influence once out in time beyond 12 days.  Another factor could be out towards day 15 the MJO while still quite a high amplitude wave starts to fade.  That could show how dominant other drivers are that perhaps the models see the MJO influence and develop a typical MJO phase 8 pattern for all of a few days when the MJO is spiking off the charts but as soon is the wave fades slightly it is overrun again by other factors.  

My take on the look the next couple weeks is that its pretty bad.  If we were in anything other then a total dud winter we would probably view the next 2 weeks as a relaxation or crap pattern.  Only because its been awful is it anything else.  That said the MJO signal is not fading and continues to amplify into phase 8.  The models do begin to develop a more typical phase 8 response but then blow it up in the long range.  My only hope is perhaps since that is far enough out in time they are wrong and once the eastern trough sets in it doesn't break down so easily.  Otherwise its on to March and praying for a last second hail mary. 

PSU, great commentary by you all this winter.  Here is my question...I have understood the MJO to have a bit of a lag in terms of the US.  In other words, it may take up to a week before the effects of a certain phase impact the eastern US.  If we we go into phase 8 in about eight days, would we not need to add another week to that to account for the time it takes for it to propagate to here?

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:

JB says Euro is holding back southern branch too much. Expects a major east coast storm day 12 or sometthing

If it was just the Euro then you could argue that it is playing to one of its bias's. But when you have the GFS holding back, as well the CMC moving toward that solution you really are going against guidance at that point. Maybe he is thinking the MJO signal will override what the models are showing at this point. At 10+ days that is definitely possible. Especially this winter.

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41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It depends on specific location.  Places like Richmond and the eastern shore are doing pretty good actually mostly due to one storm and their very low snow climo.  But for most of the mid atlantic its been awful.  My specific location is on pace to have our third worse winter ever in 122 years of records.  Even a fluke 6" event would only bump me to 4th worst winter in 122 years lol.  So absent a crazy turn around its going to end up on the god awful list up here.  The cities are a bit different as their climo is lower so one fluke can surge them up the list faster but they also are doing even worse right now.  Baltimore I think still has their worst winter ever record in play if they get no more snow.  Bottom line is so far its been in line with the truly epic fail winters on record. 

Lower eastern shore and places right along the coast have exceeded their snow climo in many cases. Where I am I have a ways to go. Climo here is around 19" and I have 7.2 so far.

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12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

PSU, great commentary by you all this winter.  Here is my question...I have understood the MJO to have a bit of a lag in terms of the US.  In other words, it may take up to a week before the effects of a certain phase impact the eastern US.  If we we go into phase 8 in about eight days, would we not need to add another week to that to account for the time it takes for it to propagate to here?

I second this... Despite the crap this winter, kudos to to PSU, Chill, and others with some solid analysis  and level-headedness in here. 

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I think we're beyond frustration or panic or whatever you want to call it. At leaat i am. I havent seen real snowfall in over a year. I really don't care much anymore either way at this point. 

I won't let any warm Feb days go to waste. I'm going to work on my bike tomorrow and get it ready for rides. Should be some good days for that the next few weeks. I'm pretty sick of doing the indoor stationary bike thing. 

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47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It depends on specific location.  Places like Richmond and the eastern shore are doing pretty good actually mostly due to one storm and their very low snow climo.  But for most of the mid atlantic its been awful.  My specific location is on pace to have our third worse winter ever in 122 years of records.  Even a fluke 6" event would only bump me to 4th worst winter in 122 years lol.  So absent a crazy turn around its going to end up on the god awful list up here.  The cities are a bit different as their climo is lower so one fluke can surge them up the list faster but they also are doing even worse right now.  Baltimore I think still has their worst winter ever record in play if they get no more snow.  Bottom line is so far its been in line with the truly epic fail winters on record. 

Yes. And last year we were lucky with the big HECS around here. Nobody  in the east had a good winter then, but we scored the one and only premier event which made the entire thing for us. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think we're beyond frustration or panic or whatever you want to call it. At leaat i am. I havent seen real snowfall in over a year. I really don't care much anymore either way at this point. 

I won't let any warm Feb days go to waste. I'm going to work on my bike tomorrow and get it ready for rides. Should be some good days for that the next few weeks. I'm pretty sick of doing the indoor stationary bike thing. 

Anyone who is snow starved and cant wait until next winter really should try to plan a trip somewhere if possible. Canaan is probably the closest, best location.

I was thinking of heading to the hardware store to see if the pre-emergent is on the shelf yet. Tomorrow might be a nice day to get the first batch down so it can work into the soil with the upcoming mild rains.

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think we're beyond frustration or panic or whatever you want to call it. At leaat i am. I havent seen real snowfall in over a year. I really don't care much anymore either way at this point. 

I won't let any warm Feb days go to waste. I'm going to work on my bike tomorrow and get it ready for rides. Should be some good days for that the next few weeks. I'm pretty sick of doing the indoor stationary bike thing. 

Yup... Agree  with this sentiment 100 percent. Might at least be nice to get outside some. And keep just a small eye on whether we do actually score a late season snow! My hope is that this is not a prelude to a God-awful hot summer!  

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think we're beyond frustration or panic or whatever you want to call it. At leaat i am. I havent seen real snowfall in over a year. I really don't care much anymore either way at this point. 

I won't let any warm Feb days go to waste. I'm going to work on my bike tomorrow and get it ready for rides. Should be some good days for that the next few weeks. I'm pretty sick of doing the indoor stationary bike thing. 

Same here in Philadelphia 

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