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February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think the second half of feb willl probably have some solid mid range threats that will vaporize. We aren't done with tracking failures. 

Jokes aside, I don't think Feb is going to be a disaster pattern wise. Gefs has been adamant that the western ridge will hang tough d10 and beyond. Makes sense. I'm not sold on the euro. We could get a temporary blast of pac air but I don't think we'll have a week in the upper 50's and low 60's either. 

It's been kinda comical how bad it's been this year getting even a piddly 1-2" event through the cities and burbs. But I don't think that means that's definitely what will happen over the next 4 weeks. We have equal chances at having something break right. We'll be in shock and awe if/when it does happen. A 200 page obs thread for a 2" storm wouldn't shock me  lol 

The general look on the ensembles over multiple runs is not awful. It is pretty clear there is some disparity among the members lately- due to the MJO, or whatever. Seeing pretty big changes run to run particularly on the EPS. Here is what is in favor of DC-BWI area getting a decent event or 2 going forward- Pattern does not look particularly or persistently hostile, it is February, and it usually finds a way to snow this time of year. Law of averages- it has managed to snow all around the area, including parts of the SE, even though the pattern overall this winter in the MA and SNE has been pretty crappy for snow. On the downside, time is running short. If it doesn't snow in the next 10-15 days then its getting close to Hail Mary time. I thought about my lawn today for the first time in 3 nearly months. It looks slightly green the past few days. The days are getting longer...

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The general look on the ensembles over multiple runs is not awful. It is pretty clear there is some disparity among the members lately- due to the MJO, or whatever. Seeing pretty big changes run to run particularly on the EPS. Here is what is in favor of DC-BWI area getting a decent event or 2 going forward- Pattern does not look particularly or persistently hostile, it is February, and it usually finds a way to snow this time of year. Law of averages- it has managed to snow all around the area, including parts of the SE, even though the pattern overall this winter in the MA and SNE has been pretty crappy for snow. On the downside, time is running short. If it doesn't snow in the next 10-15 days then its getting close to Hail Mary time. I thought about my lawn today for the first time in 3 nearly months. It looks slightly green the past few days. The days are getting longer...

Add to that .... wait for it .... sun angle.  It starts rising rapidly in the next few days and tops 40 degrees around the 19th.  It gets increasingly tough to get that good wintry snow/feel after that.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Add to that .... wait for it .... sun angle.  It starts rising rapidly in the next few days and tops 40 degrees around the 19th.  It gets increasingly tough to get that good wintry snow/feel after that.

True, but as we saw the 2 winters before last, it can be pretty damn wintery well into March despite sun angle increase. The St Pattys day storm we had, temps fell into the low 20s and teens with snow during the daylight hours, and it felt like mid January. Problem is, there is not even a hint that we are headed in that direction this year.

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Best gefs run long range in a while though.  Normally I'd say the trough is a bit too east but with that war it actually might be better off there. Would need something to come from the south not the west. EPS has been bouncing all over. Hopefully it trends towards this look.  This would fit the mjo phase 8 look so it makes sense 

IMG_0523.PNG

 

 

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

True, but as we saw the 2 winters before last, it can be pretty damn wintery well into March despite sun angle increase. The St Pattys day storm we had, temps fell into the low 20s and teens with snow during the daylight hours, and it felt like mid January. Problem is, there is not even a hint that we are headed in that direction this year.

Yeah, we can do it, but it's tough.  The March 17 2014 storm you mentioned started melting later that day and was gone a couple days later.  The early march storm of the next year was good.  Really cold.

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15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yeah, we can do it, but it's tough.  The March 17 2014 storm you mentioned started melting later that day and was gone a couple days later.  The early march storm of the next year was good.  Really cold.

If I recall after that storm which was on a weekend I was driving through battlefield and it was -2 on car thermometer.  Lowest I think I ever saw.  It's was early March I think maybe the 5th.  

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Very big picture-- it's very very hard to make it through December, January, February, and March without a single moderate event for the metro area. It takes an extreme season like 72/73 or 97/98 for that to happen. And west of the Fall Line, it's even a bit harder (like how 3/76 'ruined' the streak for the western suburbs). And it's just not possible to know for sure until we get through all of March.

So we can joke every season that betting on fail is a safe bet--- absolutely true. It's also true that through 4 cold-season months, it's very hard to bet against having one moderate snow. I will always bet that we get one. And taking that bet means I would have been wrong 4 seasons in the last 50 in MoCo west of the Fall Line-- only 72/73, 80/81, 97/98 (December 29-30/97 was very close where I am to a moderate snowstorm), and 11/12. 

Sure, this season will probably/could very well join those four. But, again, I'm never going to assume that solution even entering February without one moderate snow. 

Ready for the next 8 weeks :)

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30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yeah, we can do it, but it's tough.  The March 17 2014 storm you mentioned started melting later that day and was gone a couple days later.  The early march storm of the next year was good.  Really cold.

Yeah, it's tough...but it can happen in March if we're fortunate enough.  There are four events/times since I've lived here that had some solid cold and snow in March.  The early March 2009 event, with some 5-6"...early March 2014 (2nd/3rd, I believe?), I got 5.3"...March 16-17, 2014, 8" here...and March 5, 2015 where I got 6.5".  For each of those events, it remained below freezing through the day (even if the roads were cleared quickly), and in the case of March 5, 2015, it was below freezing the following day as well.

Then of course, there were two successive March 25 events in 2013 and 2014 (I got 4" and 3", respectively...during the daylight hours).  It went above freezing, but stayed in the mid-30s each of those times.

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4 hours ago, PennQuakerGirl said:I agree! If nothing else, this ballet-major has learned loads of new things about the weather, how the weather is predicted, and how people react to the weather being predicted.   Now, in return, if anybody wants to learn classical ballet, you know where to find me.  

Mariinsky in town. They make American companies look slovenly.  ABT doesn't come close.  NYCB has the technique but it is niche Balanchine.  Balletomane here. 

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So it seems we're really looking at a few factorsto see if we even have a shot. I know there are others as well-

1. Separation between the midweek "storm" and the follow up wave

2. Strength of the follow up wave. Past couple runs of the GFS have shown more energy; thus, stronger end result

3. Orientation of where the WC ridge sets up. Farther west Ridge, farther west storm.

By the way, watching TWC for the first time in who knows how long. Good or bad omen for tonight's runs?

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I can extrapolate multiple snow storms beyond this panel

gfs_z500a_nhem_53.png

Holy blocking batman. Let's get the ensembles to trend towards that.  Oh just because I obviously have a serious problem I was looking at the runs 4/5 days ago that had potential for this coming week and the trough progression isn't all that different. The current follow up wave is the one that was the threat. The lakes cutter was originally just a weak northern stream system that came across mostly unnoticed. The trough dug in then something developed. Problem was when the Sunday thing fell apart it left room for the northern branch system to amplify and screwed the whole setup. Now it's complicated and we know how that works. 

Euro weeklies do look good week 4-6 but man that's getting late. I guess I can salvage a late save up here through march even but I'll be pretty checked out by then. But I guess if we're going to have that kind of stormy pattern might as well snow. 

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