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Upstate/Eastern New York


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5 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Temp down to 33.4 as RH is up to 89% with onset of RN-...with dewpoint, Td, around 28 earlier and T of 35...the two will meet somewhere in the middle as the column moistens, I think closer to the air temp than original dry Td.  Like I said, I used to be able to figure this stuff out easily but I've forgotten..  Too much electrical engineering displaced those brain cells. And I'm lazy.  My guesstimate is we end up with T and Td around 32.5 with RH at >95%...

We just hit 32f with a dp of 28 so we should end up right around 30-31 so it'll be interesting to see where we end up at.  fzrn now with flakes mixed in at times!

 

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4 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

IIRC the biggest recent synoptic storms have mostly favored WNY relative to CNY, with a few exceptions like the February 2014 storm that slammed the Mid Atlantic and ENY but came further north than expected and dropped 8-12 across the southern tier and lower Finger Lakes when only 2-4 had been forecast.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-February_2014_North_American_winter_storm

I think u are right...that wiki article listed Syracuse with a paltry 5.4" but I thought we squeaked out a tad more.  I think maybe some LES after got us up closer to, or into, double digits.  That storm was another disgusting P.O.S. from my perspective. I lived in SECT for the better part of 2 decades and other than the winter of 95/96, couldn't buy a decent snowstorm it seemed, at least near the coast.  A few years after I left, Blizzards are routinely pummeling SNE seemingly every winter while BGM to ALB get shafted like they are Los Angeles in a 10 year drought.  I'm exaggerating a bit...but not much.

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Just now, Syrmax said:

I think u are right...that wiki article listed Syracuse with a paltry 5.4" but I thought we squeaked out a tad more.  I think maybe some LES after got us up closer to, or into, double digits.  That storm was another disgusting P.O.S. from my perspective. I lived in SECT for the better part of 2 decades and other than the winter of 95/96, couldn't buy a decent snowstorm it seemed, at least near the coast.  A few years after I left, Blizzards are routinely pummeling SNE seemingly every winter while BGM to ALB get shafted like they are Los Angeles in a 10 year drought.  I'm exaggerating a bit...but not much.

Yeah, I remember growing up in the 90s and 00s the interior would regularly get crushed while coastal regions got the shaft; everything changed starting in 2009-2010 which had 4 big winter storms, all but one of which (the snowicane) clobbered the mid atlantic and the coast at the expense of the interior. Since then the big cities have repeatedly cashed in.

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Yeah I dont see where they say anything about lowering amounts by quite a bit???

Latest water vapor imagery showing a large storm system over eastern
North Carolina. This feature will slowly churn northward along the
Mid Atlantic coast tonight, while a highly anomalous easterly flow
in the low levels will pump a wealth of Atlantic moisture back
across our region. The moisture will be lifted by a combination of
divergent upper level flow, significant height falls and some weak
H925-70 frontogenetic forcing. While this will virtually guarantee
that all areas will pick up some precipitation, the challenging
portion of the forecast will deal with both precipitation type and
overall QPF.

Latest regional radar imagery showing the leading edge of
precipitation has finally worked its way into the Southern Tier and
nearing the Finger lakes. Precipitation type so far across the
western Southern Tier still rain, with a mix developing east
across the Elmira/Ithaca/Binghamton area. Colder air will
continue to feed in from the northeast and a gradual transition
over to snow/sleet is still expected. Latest HRRR seems to have a
decent handle on current trends. It is not overly impressive
across the western half of the area tonight, suggesting a gradual
diminishing trend to the precipitation and showing a greater
precipitation focus up across eastern portions of the area. Will
maintain current headlines as we have in place and continue to
monitor trends. Latest HRRR continuing to suggest the potential
for decent snows of upwards of 6 inches across the Finger Lakes
into the North Country, but probably falling shy of this west of
the Finger Lakes.

Yeah I definitely see this happening out West.

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Just now, Syrmax said:

Well, still RN- here just North of the SYR...humidity 94% and Temp down to 32.5... about where I figured it would end up.  Maybe we lose a little bit more temp if precip rate picks up. So far just light liquid.

dp's are still in the upper 20's Bri, according to the meso analysis so they may slip a degree or two further.

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I just scoped the NYC thread, looks like interior NJ and southern Ny getting quite a bit of IP and some sections ZR.  Even down into the city had some PL but I think the city has changed over.  Quite a plume of moisture developing and pointed in our general direction.  The dry air here has been tenacious though.  This is an interesting biatch of a storm for sure.

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This is definitely concerning to me unless it gets washed out from the heavier echoes but that glob of red in ECNY looks like its headed right for us.  Someone said it was snowing in Norwich and if thats the case, their right under that +2 and their snowing under heavy returns so.....  I trying to find every way this system can screw us, lol!

850mb_sf.gif?1485231842074

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