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Upstate/Eastern New York


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WSW up for Central/Eastern New York.

http://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/buf.png

Latest models have the storm moving more East and think the watches for the far western counties get dropped. Thinking 2-4" for areas south of Ontario. Binghamton 4-8", highest elevations of Eastern New York 6-10".

Thursday Night into Sunday looks like a decent LES event, although temperatures are marginal so don't expect anything huge. The long range change to a cooler pattern that was showing up seems to have disappeared the last few days.

 

The SSW event took place but the polar vortex looks to remain intact.

The GFS Ens and Euro ENS differ quite a bit in the long range.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

CIPS analogs have us cooler than average until the end of the run.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/EXT_DFHR1.php?reg=&fhr=F168&rundt=2017012200&map=TNORM

If I had to guess I think we see a few more cool-downs in the next 2 months but primarily average above normal in temperatures and we see a quicker transition than normal to spring.

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By 12z tomorrow, the cuse will be out of the heavier stuff as well, so it wont be long before we join you guys in the west, lol!! Just to damn good to be true.  Good track, great moisture feed but no cold air and now we get screwed on the track.  The models cant even resolve **** 2 days out anymore. Seems as though we're headed the wrong way in the tech dept

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Surprisingly, the Euro keeps pretty bullish totals from Rochester thru Syracuse. With 6"-12" totals common from 390 East. I'm shocked. It also shows the low moving to position near or just west of where it had it at tomorrow at 18z in the 12z run. Very weird. I want to check the 850 temps to see if there is any chance of Lake Enhancement off a NE wind. One can hope. 

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Interestingly, the Euro doesn't show heavy stuff hitting the i90 corridor until the 30-36 hr frame. It is at that time that cold temps do crash in, so i wouldn't rule out some help from our friend Lake Ontario. The precip signature seems to suggest that. 

All in all. This euro run shows a more traditional nor Easter. With the low heading off the coast and then riding up, just barely off shore to just east of NJ. Its a different sollution from yesterdays run, but yields good snow for kroc. Wild. Just when I'm out, they reel me back in. 

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Kbuf

 

Again, the challenging part of this forecast remains the very
marginal thermal profiles. This event will start as all rain across
the region today. However, as we get into the later part of the
afternoon and this evening, marginally cooler air will be advected
in on the easterly flow from the cooler airmass over New England.
This, combined with increasing precipitation rates by this evening,
will allow for dynamically cooling to further cool the column and
support a change over from rain to possibly some wintry mix and then
over to snow tonight. This is the tricky part of the forecast. The
various model guidances range from easily cold enough to support all
snow, to some with stubborn warm noses aloft that would support
sleet or even freezing rain. Expect that dynamical cooling in the
high precipitation rates, something the models usually do not
capture well enough, will be enough to push the profile cold enough
to support all snow. Have thus leveraged the colder EC/Canadian
solutions to support his change over to all snow tonight. Snowfall
amounts will be highest across central NY where the best forcing,
and highest QPF will track, and thus this is where confidence was
high enough for a Winter Storm Warning. Snowfall amounts here will
most likely range from 6 to 10 inches. Snowfall rates in the warning
area will likely peak around an inch per hour, with most of the snow
coming in a 6 to 10 hour window. On the northwest periphery of this
warning, lower QPF amounts will amount to advisory snow
accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. Amounts will be lowest across the
far Western NY, which will see the least QPF and least favorable
dynamical cooling, with totals of 1 to 4 inches. Thus have excluded
far western NY from any highlights at this time.
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The key to the amount of snow we get is the timing of the change over from rain/sleet to snow. Obviously the later this change occurs the less accumulations will be. Channel 9's model keeps a lot of mixing until midnight and their forecast snow totals are low, basically 4 inches with 8 over higher elevations. 

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28 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

The key to the amount of snow we get is the timing of the change over from rain/sleet to snow. Obviously the later this change occurs the less accumulations will be. Channel 9's model keeps a lot of mixing until midnight and their forecast snow totals are low, basically 4 inches with 8 over higher elevations. 

I've been thinking same idea.  The NAM and I think CMC show an area of high qpf somewhere in CNY, wherever that materializes will probably get some impressive snow amts, more like 8-12".  I think 6Z nam shows that generally near finger lakes with the inverted trough idea?  Looking at precip shield this a.m., i am not buying lower end qpf's for CNY at all.  How much falls as snow though is the fun part...Gonna be a very interesting system to watch unfold. 

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19 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

0C line really starting to crash west across CNY at 850 and 925mb levels as of 3:00 PM mesoanalysis update. Temps and DPs sagging as well. Should start as frozen for everyone, even though the NAM is suggesting a brief period of rain on the front edge.

Thats really good news for those of us looking to regain proficiency in snowblower operation  tomorrow morning. ;)

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Wayne Mahar going for 6 to 12 just south and east of Syracuse and 5 to 8 I think for rest. Still makes it seem we mix for many hours before going over. Buffalo's WRF models seem to hammer the I-81 corrider late tonight and tomorrow morning with 1" + rates. Bing. NWS alluded to this possibility in AFD.

In terms of storm total, still expect 6-8+ inches of heavy, wet
snow over our western and northern zones (NW of Broome County).
In fact, if a frontogenically forced heavy band sets up this
evening this could result in rates of 1-2+ inches an hour and
localized storm totals of 10-12+ inches. 

Gonna be fun to watch. Someone gets a good surprise or the shaft!

 

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