rochesterdave Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Strengthening band getting close to Rochester. On the infrared Sat you could see the feature that pushes that band South. It looks short live, but again, where that band stops its west shift and stalls and then begins to move east again, will be the winner. I think it looks like NE Monroe and NW Wayne look to cash in. This band has some serious business left in it. I wouldn't be surprised if Tim in Walworth ends up with warning snow. Or an area just to his NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Ggem has nice look for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Euro is no 12z but still a solid 9" for kfzy on the snow maps, 850 0c line briefly gets into Syracuse/extreme southern Oswego before temps crash..Don't have to go to far SW to cut totals in half.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1.5" in last hour in Irondequoit. Snowing to beat the band! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Don't sleep on tomorrow night, won't be huge but will definitely beat tonight lol Gfs has 0.3" , Nam 0.4"..Should be a good 2"-4" to freshen up the pack.. Edit: seems like I'm late to the party haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 5" in Irondequoit. All since 11PM. Its 4 am. So 1"/hr. But it has come down at 2"/ hr at times. Fun night. We reach Warning Criteria no sweat. As radar trends show little movement over next couple hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Next 84hrs on both GFS and Nam are interesting! Im liking the look. A solid 1-1.25" liq should equate to close to a foot and most of it is from 2 synoptic events, can you believe it? Better yet, should we believe it is a better question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 snowing heavily once again this morning and should just fizzle out or just get engulfed by the clipper that is moving towards us attm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Next 84hrs on both GFS and Nam are interesting! Im liking the look. A solid 1-1.25" liq should equate to close to a foot and most of it is from 2 synoptic events, can you believe it? Better yet, should we believe it is a better question? At least here some of that is rain, and I believe for your area too. Not a lot but a few tenths of an inch so it's prob more like .7-.8" LE that falls as snow. Still I would take it in a heart beat but count me skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Its all snow for me as I ve checked soundings. Out your way is an entirely different story unfortunately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just woke up to a lot of snow in NW Wayne cty. Looks like 10-12"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 And it should trend colder as Sunday approaches so I remain optimistic. I'm more interested in this band right now as its looks to be strengthening and making a b-line right right for KSYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Just woke up to a lot of snow in NW Wayne cty. Looks like 10-12"... nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Latest from kbuf As the weak sfc low moves across Pennsylvania/southern New York on Sunday...it will become `captured` by the digging shortwave over the Upper Great Lakes. The process of this `phasing` of the two systems will keep general low pressure over our forecast area...with increased baroclinicity and significant hgt falls supporting fairly widespread pcpn. Given that there will not be an airmass change... expect the risk for more mixed precipitation. This will especially be true for sites near Lake Ontario and across the North Country. Again...the potential problem on Sunday will not be with the amount of pcpn but with the type. This could keep slick travel conditions in place...particularly for the aforementioned areas. Temperatures on Sunday will largely be in the 30s...although the mercury will top out within a few degrees of 40 across the western counties. As the very robust shortwave digs from the Lower Great Lakes across Pennsylvania Sunday night...the phasing of the two sfc features will become complete as explosive cyclogenesis will take place along the New England coast. Much colder air on the backside of this newly formed coastal `bomb` will combine with a deep moisture field to generate widespread accumulating snow across all of Western and North Central New York. While several inches of accumulation are anticipated...there will be the potential for more significant snowfall amounts south of Lake Ontario from ROC to SYR where lake enhancement will likely come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 sounds good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Snow's picking up here again after a big 1.5 inches last night. Hopefully can pick up 2-3 inches tonight then we'll see what happens on Sunday/Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 6 inches in Walworth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedbird747 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 About 2 inches in downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Only 2.5" at Rochester airport last 2 days. Had to be farther NE/East to get the larger totals it seems. Wayne county did really well. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Also 2nd half of Feb looks warmer than at any time this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Strong MJO in phase 8 in the next 4-8 days. Typically affects sensible weather in US about 6-10 day after. That would be a factor against an unusually warm 2H of Feb. EPO looks to go negative in 2H as well. AO looks to stay negative through Feb. PNA looks to stay positive (not as strong as now). EPS forecast just doesn't add up to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 GEFS agree. Torch coast to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS agree. Torch coast to coast Bring it! With all due respect to the 99.9% of the Northeastern US population that has received one or more significant snow events this year, excluding of course BUF and surrounding northern Erie County, which is in a never ending cycle of warm/mud/freeze/miss snow/rain/freeze/miss snow/warm/rain/mud/miss snow, this winter can go eff itself somewhere on the other side of the globe for the next 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, Buffalo Bumble said: Bring it! With all due respect to the 99.9% of the Northeastern US population that has received one or more significant snow events this year, excluding of course BUF and surrounding northern Erie County, which is in a never ending cycle of warm/mud/freeze/miss snow/rain/freeze/miss snow/warm/rain/mud/miss snow, this winter can go eff itself somewhere on the other side of the globe for the next 2 months. Couldn't agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS agree. Torch coast to coast If you look closely, the Northeast is shown at or below normal, which roughly matches yhe extended range models that generally show troughiness in the NE. Doesn't auger all that bad. If you are looking for a 240/250 LES event, thats always problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 hours ago, CNY_WX said: Snow's picking up here again after a big 1.5 inches last night. Hopefully can pick up 2-3 inches tonight then we'll see what happens on Sunday/Sunday night. Same here...id say downtown SYR had 3-4" based on what i was walking in. Coworker that lives SW of Syr (i think S of Camillus) said he had about 14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 We'll see what 12z runs show, incl EC, but i'm inclined to take the under for the late sun/mon timeframe. A few inches in CNY seem likely but a bigger dump is going to take some magical timing between the digging no. stream s/w and the departing slp, to capture it in time and sling snow back here. Central and No. NE and maybe ENY would figure to have best chances. Who knows, maybe ALB and BTV get reprieves from the multi year shaft jobs...which are way more pronounced than what we've seen in CNY/WNY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 About a foot near Skaneateles. It was beautiful this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, champy said: About a foot near Skaneateles. It was beautiful this morning Beautiful picture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 52 minutes ago, Syrmax said: We'll see what 12z runs show, incl EC, but i'm inclined to take the under for the late sun/mon timeframe. A few inches in CNY seem likely but a bigger dump is going to take some magical timing between the digging no. stream s/w and the departing slp, to capture it in time and sling snow back here. Central and No. NE and maybe ENY would figure to have best chances. Who knows, maybe ALB and BTV get reprieves from the multi year shaft jobs...which are way more pronounced than what we've seen in CNY/WNY... The lake enhancement will likely be the bigger snow maker with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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