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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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WNash

WNash

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Posted
2 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

It's been coming down pretty good here in South Buffalo the last couple hours, probably about 3 inches here.

I was surprised to see they upped it to a warning. I guess the band will be a bit more intense tonight than initially thought!

It sounds like it's gonna keep residence in the south part of the metro, instead of being on the move across the middle of the metro like the earlier forecast. Sounds like yet another south of the airport event that won't put much of a dent in the huge deficit.

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WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted

 

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

3" so far here storm total 1.5 and 1.5. Driving back from West Seneca I hit very heavy sleet/graupel. Cold air is just not very deep in this band. High liquid content though.

Heading down to the in-laws in Gardenville, so we should be in this most of the evening.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

Just had a chance to looks at the 12Z GFS and man is it COLD!!  I haven't seen such a run like that in a long while.  Haven't been keeping track if its consistent with bringing the cold but if it is that is promising to say the least.  Now we just have to find a few chances at precip which, according to the GFS we accumulate about 15" in a 10 day period, now if that were to come to fruition that would be a dramatic change from where we are now and where we've been for the past couple seasons.  Even the 120 total is close to a foot and that's a 5 day forecast so things may finally be looking up!

Here's 10 day totals, yeah they may be clown maps, but the pattern we are entering can produce these total easily.  So this can happen and I pray it does, lol!

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Only about an inch total so far (which was to be expected), best shot at some accumulating snows look to be sun afternoon into mon morning..

  

This period will open with a surface trough and associated snow showers
sliding across our region from northwest to southeast early Sunday evening.
Behind this feature the low level wind field will quickly veer to west-
northwesterly...which will in turn act to advect colder air across our
region commensurate with the passage of the main upper level trough axis.

The cold air advection regime will result in 850 mb temps falling to
the -15C to -18C range Sunday night...then remaining in this general
vicinity through Monday. Coupled with fairly plentiful moisture
lingering below equilibrium levels of around 10 kft...this will set
the stage for continued lake effect snows through Sunday night and
Monday morning...this time predominantly southeast of the lakes given
the prevailing west-northwesterly flow.

While the activity will be multi-banded in nature and there will also
be some shear in place during this time frame...the favorable thermal
and moisture profiles would suggest that the potential for at least
some additional advisory-worthy snows will exist southeast of both lakes
through Monday morning. Off Lake Erie these would primarily be across
Chautauqua county and immediately adjoining portions of Southern Erie
and Cattaraugus counties...while the Lake Ontario activity could focus
anywhere from Niagara to southern Oswego counties dependent upon the
evolution of an upstream connection to Lake Huron...the strength and
position of which varies amongst the shorter term guidance packages.
Given the existing LES warnings off Lake Erie and still plenty of
uncertainty on the exact strength and placement of the best Lake Ontario
lake snows...will hold off on any additions/extensions to the current
Lake Effect headlines for now...though these will probably become
necessary over the next day or so.

 

SOURCE

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Posted 
...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WYOMING...
CENTRAL ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES...

At 729 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 1 to 2 inches per hour was developing across central Erie county
and western Genesee county.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, Clarence, Lackawanna, Batavia,
Depew, Lancaster, Hamburg and East Aurora.
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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

Hey Bri, She's firing on all cylinders, but its also 6:30AM, lol and I don't think it'll be like it is now, later this afternoon, as another SW is gonna swing through and disrupt things once again and maybe provide a few inches to our immediate area later this evening as the band is gonna drop straight South into early Monday morning. A few of the models have the band hanging up along the South shore for a few hrs then it'll sweep through, then a short reprieve.

A nice little potent Clipper is gonna pass through the area that could drop 3-5", and yeah I'm being optimistic, but its a strong clipper so there can be surprises with those Alberta's!  I actually like this pattern although I'd like a bit of subtropical moisture to get involved with one of these Northern Stream waves as that would be fun as two air masses clash right over the Northeast!

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Hey Bri, She's firing on all cylinders, but its also 6:30AM, lol and I don't think it'll be like it is now, later this afternoon, as another SW is gonna swing through and disrupt things once again and maybe provide a few inches to our immediate area later this evening as the band is gonna drop straight South into early Monday morning. A few of the models have the band hanging up along the South shore for a few hrs then it'll sweep through, then a short reprieve.

A nice little potent Clipper is gonna pass through the area that could drop 3-5", and yeah I'm being optimistic, but its a strong clipper so there can be surprises with those Alberta's!  I actually like this pattern although I'd like a bit of subtropical moisture to get involved with one of these Northern Stream waves as that would be fun as two air masses clash right over the Northeast!

Yeah...i'm not motivated enough to chase this one though.  We have a covering of snow at best here. This event has worked out as i expected with basically <1" in our area up into So. Oswego cty.  I had low expectations and they were met...I don't see anything noteworthy for this week other than a parade of Clippers and transient or weak LES multibands offering 1-3" type snows. So by end of this week we may scratch out 6".  Pattern looks chilly going forward so i suspect Feb may get us roughly normal snowfall, by some means.  At least that's my initial expectation as February approaches.  Snowblower rusting from disuse...;)

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Posted
5 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Hey Bri, She's firing on all cylinders, but its also 6:30AM, lol and I don't think it'll be like it is now, later this afternoon, as another SW is gonna swing through and disrupt things once again and maybe provide a few inches to our immediate area later this evening as the band is gonna drop straight South into early Monday morning. A few of the models have the band hanging up along the South shore for a few hrs then it'll sweep through, then a short reprieve.

A nice little potent Clipper is gonna pass through the area that could drop 3-5", and yeah I'm being optimistic, but its a strong clipper so there can be surprises with those Alberta's!  I actually like this pattern although I'd like a bit of subtropical moisture to get involved with one of these Northern Stream waves as that would be fun as two air masses clash right over the Northeast!

Clipper patterns are my favorite. Just consistent 1-3" to 3-6" snowfalls every couple days with LES that follows. The pattern for the next few weeks looks northern stream driven so I don't think we see to much gulf moisture in the mix. I think March brings that.  

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Yeah...i'm not motivated enough to chase this one though.  We have a covering of snow at best here. This event has worked out as i expected with basically <1" in our area up into So. Oswego cty.  I had low expectations and they were met...I don't see anything noteworthy for this week other than a parade of Clippers and transient or weak LES multibands offering 1-3" type snows. So by end of this week we may scratch out 6".  Pattern looks chilly going forward so i suspect Feb may get us roughly normal snowfall, by some means.  At least that's my initial expectation as February approaches.  Snowblower rusting from disuse...;)

Yeah that's what I thought, as it has been much more lackluster than first anticipated but I'm much more optimistic than this time last week or the week before for that matter.  This current pattern can bring the goods, not in an anomalous fashion but a few clippers and somer healthy enhancement and by the end of the week we can easily have more than a foot and in a Winter such as this one, one cant be choosy, lol! Actually the next week looks superactive with a system every other day rolling through and like I said they wont be blockbusters but they will lay down snow and with some LE then things can get interesting.  I feel for the snowmobilers who simply cant ride but the skiers throughout the NE are having a great season and hope it continues into Spring which looks quite probable!

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
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Posted
3 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Yeah that's what I thought, as it has been much more lackluster than first anticipated but I'm much more optimistic than this time last week or the week before for that matter.  This current pattern can bring the goods, not in an anomalous fashion but a few clippers and somer healthy enhancement and by the end of the week we can easily have more than a foot and in a Winter such as this one, one cant be choosy, lol! Actually the next week looks superactive with a system every other day rolling through and like I said they wont be blockbusters but they will lay down snow and with some LE then things can get interesting.  I feel for the snowmobilers who simply cant ride but the skiers throughout the NE are having a great season and hope it continues into Spring which looks quite probable!

I think we see more of a NW flow the next 2 weeks after this Clipper. I think at least WWA for the clipper coming Tues/Weds timeframe.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Yeah that's what I thought, as it has been much more lackluster than first anticipated but I'm much more optimistic than this time last week or the week before for that matter.  This current pattern can bring the goods, not in an anomalous fashion but a few clippers and somer healthy enhancement and by the end of the week we can easily have more than a foot and in a Winter such as this one, one cant be choosy, lol! Actually the next week looks superactive with a system every other day rolling through and like I said they wont be blockbusters but they will lay down snow and with some LE then things can get interesting.  I feel for the snowmobilers who simply cant ride but the skiers throughout the NE are having a great season and hope it continues into Spring which looks quite probable!

We may get a few hours of snow tonight...which may be the theme this week. It'll add up in fits and starts by end of the next week or so.  

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