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22 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

I'll sit back and watch but that's a lot of snow being forecast for a marginal event..:rolleyes:

Don't get me wrong, I think their 4 cast for the Tug region is probably spot on.  With 260-280, even 290 flow, the lake shape and orientation helps funnel snow off the east end.  It's very stable.  With that in place for a few days...absolutely no qualms with the warning areas or forecasted amounts there.  South of there it's likely occasional snow showers over the weekend.    I'd just forecast one or two map categories lower with a sharper cutoff on either side of Tug bullseye.  We see that play our pretty consistently.  I may take a drive up near there sometime this weekend.

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2 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Don't get me wrong, I think their 4 cast for the Tug region is probably spot on.  With 260-280, even 290 flow, the lake shape and orientation helps funnel snow off the east end.  It's very stable.  With that in place for a few days...absolutely no qualms with the warning areas or forecasted amounts there.  South of there it's likely occasional snow showers over the weekend.    I'd just forecast one or two map categories lower with a sharper cutoff on either side of Tug bullseye.  We see that play our pretty consistently.  I may take a drive up near there sometime this weekend.

Brian, if you drive anywhere near there this weekend I'm down for the ride bro!

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

http://www.weather.gov/images/erh/gis/NE_Snow.png

This is a good looking map I'd say. 2-4" for us I think is spot on.  

Yeah we may be the snowiest city in the USA but its all relative as to how you get there. We got 30 something inches in November and right now we sit below average for the season.  That means between December and January we got 20 something inches which is what we average just in December alone, lol.  We complain when were forecasted to get 6-10 and we get a trace, which is what I wound up with, if that, lol.  Don't tell me you wouldn't be complaining if that happened area wide in and around KBUF, perhaps you wouldn't because you live in Hamburg, where you get crushed with every event practically, unless its a strict sw flow which is a rarity.

People just don't understand, unless you live here, that's all I can say!

 

 

i this time around we get blitzed, lol!!

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46 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Brian, if you drive anywhere near there this weekend I'm down for the ride bro!

Roger that. I'll let you know.  I'll be tuning up my riding mower and weed wacker out in the shed getting a few things adjusted for spring and doing minor car repairs. I was gonna ski but that's out, really hardpan icy now.

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Ty - here's my data:

 

Station

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

Avg

2016-17

 

KMBY

138.5

127.9

144.3

131.8

154.5

114.2

177.85

43.85

121.3

143.2

129.9

71.65

124.9

61.6

 

KSYR

136.2

124.6

140.2

109.1

149.6

106.1

179.0

50.6

115.4

132.0

119.7

80.3

120.2

68.8

 

 

My snowfall (KMBY - MyBackYard) is very close to KSYR.  Being somewhat NW of KSYR, I thought we averaged closer to a foot more than KSYR but nope.  I was right, only 2 years had KSYR > KMBY and one was essentially a tie.  
 

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10 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Ty - here's my data:

 

Station

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

Avg

2016-17

 

KMBY

138.5

127.9

144.3

131.8

154.5

114.2

177.85

43.85

121.3

143.2

129.9

71.65

124.9

61.6

 

KSYR

136.2

124.6

140.2

109.1

149.6

106.1

179.0

50.6

115.4

132.0

119.7

80.3

120.2

68.8

 

 

My snowfall (KMBY - MyBackYard) is very close to KSYR.  Being somewhat NW of KSYR, I thought we averaged closer to a foot more than KSYR but nope.  I was right, only 2 years had KSYR > KMBY and one was essentially a tie.  
 

Locals like to talk about crossing the Brewerton bridge on I81 north, how it represents some kind of a line of demarcation. I know from experience that all I have to do is drive the 5 miles north to Central Square and there is a noticeable increase in the amount of snow. My niece lives off Route 49 just west of Central Square and when I got 18 inches in that November event she probably received at least a foot more than me. This happens on a regular basis. 

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Man, we are all so negged out!  I've also seen this in other forums. We are not alone.  Not sure why.  Hopefully we get an upside surprise this weekend. It's possible off of both lakes. Granted, it won't be a 2 foot dump but there's at least the potential for something worth measuring for some of us.  

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The operational GFS is not all doom and gloom. We've still got at least 7 weeks of good winter potential. A lot of our memorable synoptic and lake effect storms have taken place from this point on (Superstorm of 1993, Blizzard of '66, VD '07, "Winter in a week '07, etc.). Let's just relax and see what happens. 

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It used to be that the 4km NAM would pick out higher snow amounts in LES situations (I think.) Now the 12z 4km NAM plot has 1-2" of snow, south of Erie PA. The NWS forecast has over 9" in 54 hours, south of Erie. What is going on with this 4km model? Do the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW do a lot better with this situation? Just wondering.

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12 minutes ago, Chinook said:

It used to be that the 4km NAM would pick out higher snow amounts in LES situations (I think.) Now the 12z 4km NAM plot has 1-2" of snow, south of Erie PA. The NWS forecast has over 9" in 54 hours, south of Erie. What is going on with this 4km model? Do the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW do a lot better with this situation? Just wondering.

Models in general don't do well with LES situations at all. Usually the RGEM/WRF models handle it the best. Anything within 48 hours and HIRES does the best. Modeled QPF is the worst in LES situations compared to synoptic. The best Global model for LES Snowfall outputs IMO is the GEM. 

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3 hours ago, WNash said:

Saturday's Erie LES doesn't even look like it's going to get as far north as the airport. We return to favorable lake effect conditions but the flow stays locked in exactly where it was all winter. Useless. Let's go back to 60F and end this season.

Looks really warm at the end of the Euro.

ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

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Is it just me of is this place getting insufferable with all the whiny cancel winter posts?  I  mean we are about to get a 3-4 day massive lake effect event and just because it isnt happening in someones backyard they want to write the whole winter off?? good ****ing grief.  Man up people.  This board used to be the one place of sanity and leveler heads.  The next few weeks look pretty decent on the GFS.  In fact, by hour 240, the GFS and Euro are at odds with each other, so why latch onto the model that has done poorly (recently) and shows the worst outcome.  THINK positive.  I think February brings some synoptic hits.  I've got a trip to whiteface the first weekend of Feb so I am pulling hard for some snow and snowmaking temps.  

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31 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Is it just me of is this place getting insufferable with all the whiny cancel winter posts?  I  mean we are about to get a 3-4 day massive lake effect event and just because it isnt happening in someones backyard they want to write the whole winter off?? good ****ing grief.  Man up people.  This board used to be the one place of sanity and leveler heads.  The next few weeks look pretty decent on the GFS.  In fact, by hour 240, the GFS and Euro are at odds with each other, so why latch onto the model that has done poorly (recently) and shows the worst outcome.  THINK positive.  I think February brings some synoptic hits.  I've got a trip to whiteface the first weekend of Feb so I am pulling hard for some snow and snowmaking temps.  

Exactly what I said above. We are only in the middle of winter. I know it hasn't been epic so far but we have to keep the faith that we'll pull out one or two good events before we throw in the towel. 

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Some perspective compared to last season in particular:

 


GSB Cities The 2016 - 2017 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time 
Last Season
Normal Seasons Average All Time Season 
Snowfall Record
Syracuse 68.8 70.0 40.7 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993)
Binghamton 63.2 42.7 13.5 83.4 134.0 inches (1995 - 1996)
Rochester 54.4 52.1 21.6 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960)
Buffalo 34.5 57.2 25.9 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977)
Albany 17.2 31.5 5.5 59.1 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971)
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14 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Some perspective compared to last season in particular:

 


GSB Cities The 2016 - 2017 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time 
Last Season
Normal Seasons Average All Time Season 
Snowfall Record
Syracuse 68.8 70.0 40.7 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993)
Binghamton 63.2 42.7 13.5 83.4 134.0 inches (1995 - 1996)
Rochester 54.4 52.1 21.6 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960)
Buffalo 34.5 57.2 25.9 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977)
Albany 17.2 31.5 5.5 59.1 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971)

 Wow, Buffalo doesn't have much more this season than we had at this time in last year's complete atrocity.

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Is it just me of is this place getting insufferable with all the whiny cancel winter posts?  I  mean we are about to get a 3-4 day massive lake effect event and just because it isnt happening in someones backyard they want to write the whole winter off?? good ****ing grief.  Man up people.  This board used to be the one place of sanity and leveler heads.  The next few weeks look pretty decent on the GFS.  In fact, by hour 240, the GFS and Euro are at odds with each other, so why latch onto the model that has done poorly (recently) and shows the worst outcome.  THINK positive.  I think February brings some synoptic hits.  I've got a trip to whiteface the first weekend of Feb so I am pulling hard for some snow and snowmaking temps.  

Seriously? This is looking like the fourth historically awful season for Buffalo in the last six.  A bit bigger than IMBY. Sure, this could turn around but I'd bet bigger on persistence. 

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