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Upstate/Eastern New York


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NAM and RUC models show a decent deformation signature tomorrow over CNY out to ROC so maybe we pick up a couple, few extra inches if that materializes.  The slp is modeled to deepen and slow down in the NY bight so we'll see how far back it throws the serious precip or where banding occurs. From what I can tell, models seem to indicate banding between SYR and ALB, like say UCA to Oneonta region, based on higher qpf's.   Of course, no idea if that is SN or junk.

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Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Yeah this event is in its infancy no doubt. We're gonna see snow but I really don't wanna waste too much precip on the works, but its lookin like at least a few hrs of slop is inevitable!

NAM and GFS qpf here are pretty similar by eyeball analysis, around an inch liquid. I just checked my rain gauge, only 0.04"...but I also learned that we are def sub freezing as I almost wiped out on my back deck, which is becoming a sheet of ice. It's elevated though...driveway is just wet.

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You know during a serious snowfall the sky has that Orange tint to it, obviously from the snow falling into it, but when I went out for a smoke, I looked up and saw the lowest deck moving from East to West which looks to me like an old fashioned snow storm at night in the winter.  We may have to pray to Lake Ontario once again to get us out of this despicable drought of the golden white stuff!

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4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

lol, my post indicates the same observation. The Cold air is way elevated and needs to drop the next hr or two with some serious returns coming through I hope!

 

Edit: LOL you were talking about your elevated deck, lol, but the pavement is wet!

Yes my back deck which leads to the pool, where my rain gauge is... is elevated and icy af.  BTW I checked model text output...NAM has an inch even for KSYR and GFS 0.7 thru 30 hrs...which is basically this storm. Haven't looked at the shorter range models.  I still detect just ZR, latest SYR ob has RN/SN mix...I suppose it's possible there's some mix going on but its inconsequential if it is.

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I-84 corridor in NY reporting Yuge amts of sleet...2-3".  I've seen that much before but I forget where and when. It makes for quite the hellish driving conditions. Not to mention getting your face sandblasted...though I guess you could save on using a razor blade for a day....

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I wish we had more reports of snow. By more, I mean one. This is getting ridiculous. Upper soundings in kroc all below 0, the surface is 33F at my house and no snow. Just crystal filled rain drops. Of course, the rain just started. But this kinda has a sinking feeling to it. No? Come on guys, somebody tell me they have hazy lights in their yards! LOL

Even looking at the radar, it looks like snow over most of Monroe county, it has that grainy look, but nope, it be rain mostly. I think the next 3 hrs are crucial, as a big amount of our total will begin to fall. We just started, so we can waste a few 1/100's on rain- although even that is sacrilege. 

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4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Still 33 and pouring rain west of BGM. This one just isn't going to pan out down this way. WSW cancel forthcoming. Hopefully ya'll further north will experience better luck.

I wouldn't cancel, it wasn't supposed to change to snow until early morning. There is still plenty of moisture to work with. Cold air advection will begin to take over in the next few hours as winds back and rates increase.

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/bgm_None_anim.gif

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No good news here...just rain.  My thermometer has been stuck at 32.5 for the past couple hours now, roughly. Although I think it's a smidge colder as evidenced by my icing up back deck.  Looks like the precip rate and/or dynamics will not be enough to overcome a warm column for at least a while longer.  Fortunately, ground temps have been warmed over the past few days so icing of roads and power lines may not be severe.  Once the sun comes up some weak solar heating through the clouds may help keep us from icing too badly given very borderline temps.  Maybe we pick up a couple inches of snow in whatever deformation sets up tomorrow.  Got to get to bed, work in the a.m.

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and just like that- KROC is over to snow. I love the process. I like to watch it happen. Sleet, just streaming down, then, one at a time, fluffy flakes come down like tracers. But slower, thats how you see em. They set themselves apart by their slowness. And then when precip rates increase, suddenly, often on an upslope wind, everything changes to the big wet flakes. Magic. Just magic.

I apologize for getting flaky. But I do love it. 

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Still rain here, lol, a straight dud and I felt it when it started as liquid while places in CT started as sleet so once again we get the finger, the middle one! I donre with synoptic bull**** in this area.  I'll be llookin to move out of this area real soon as we cant even snow when its supposed to. F this, I have better things to do and to think of all the time wasted on tracking this f'in thing!

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Bgm finally did the honors a few hours ago and across the board for CNY as did BUF...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
All winter storm warnings have been downgraded to winter weather
advisories. The transition to wet snow was much later than
anticipated and therefore cut down on snow accumulations. The
warmer NAM solution was a better forecast than the consensus of
all models. Hats off to the NAM.
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We poured sleet here all night long, starting about 9 pm.

Changed over to snow around 0500.

Haven't been out yet to measure but judging by the back porch I think we got about 2 inches of sleet, and it looks like 2 inches of snow now on top of that.

What a waste of a storm!  With the deformation band over us, if we had any real cold air around we would be measuring feet of snow.

 

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28 minutes ago, cny rider said:

We poured sleet here all night long, starting about 9 pm.

Changed over to snow around 0500.

Haven't been out yet to measure but judging by the back porch I think we got about 2 inches of sleet, and it looks like 2 inches of snow now on top of that.

What a waste of a storm!  With the deformation band over us, if we had any real cold air around we would be measuring feet of snow.

 

Yeah that's what is most unfortunate about this whole thing. You won't get a better track for a storm across CNY. Just such a waste. It be one thing if this was the result of an early or late season event but middle to late January should be prime time for a synoptic dump. This winter started off so promising too with the unorthodox 30" of lake effect snow at the beginning and BGM set all time record for most snow thru mid December but since then the train has derailed from the tracks with nothing on the horizon through the end of the month unless you live in the typical lake belt east of the lake.

Without that early season LES mega storm we would be staring down the barrel of another record POS winter like our E NY folk.

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9 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Yeah I dont see where they say anything about lowering amounts by quite a bit???


Latest water vapor imagery showing a large storm system over eastern
North Carolina. This feature will slowly churn northward along the
Mid Atlantic coast tonight, while a highly anomalous easterly flow
in the low levels will pump a wealth of Atlantic moisture back
across our region. The moisture will be lifted by a combination of
divergent upper level flow, significant height falls and some weak
H925-70 frontogenetic forcing. While this will virtually guarantee
that all areas will pick up some precipitation, the challenging
portion of the forecast will deal with both precipitation type and
overall QPF.

Latest regional radar imagery showing the leading edge of
precipitation has finally worked its way into the Southern Tier and
nearing the Finger lakes. Precipitation type so far across the
western Southern Tier still rain, with a mix developing east
across the Elmira/Ithaca/Binghamton area. Colder air will
continue to feed in from the northeast and a gradual transition
over to snow/sleet is still expected. Latest HRRR seems to have a
decent handle on current trends. It is not overly impressive
across the western half of the area tonight, suggesting a gradual
diminishing trend to the precipitation and showing a greater
precipitation focus up across eastern portions of the area. Will
maintain current headlines as we have in place and continue to
monitor trends. Latest HRRR continuing to suggest the potential
for decent snows of upwards of 6 inches across the Finger Lakes
into the North Country, but probably falling shy of this west of
the Finger Lakes.

Yeah I definitely see this happening out West.

The 3pm WSW text went from 5-9" to 3-6" with a mention of ice at the 9pm update.

Clearly they were on to something as Wayne cty is only pushing 1-2" at this time.

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Kbuf on the "potential" lake effect event...

 

Our area will be in the active region near the base of the longwave
trough, with numerous weak shortwaves moving through the base of the
trough. Each of these shortwaves may produce a few light snow
showers across much of the region, and will also bring subtle
variations to the low level flow, moisture depth, and cold air
structure which will impact ongoing lake effect snow.

The pattern appears favorable for a very long period of significant
lake effect snow starting Thursday night and going right through the
entire weekend. Model guidance is in good agreement initially from
Thursday night through Friday night with mean low level flow from
the west to WNW. This would target the western Southern Tier off
Lake Erie and the Southern Tug Hill and Oswego County off Lake
Ontario. By Saturday and Sunday model guidance begins to show some
spread, with several shortwaves moving through the longwave trough
and possibly backing winds more WSW at times.

The airmass is not overly cold by late January standards, with 850mb
temps starting at around -8C Thursday night and dropping to around
-12C over the weekend. Temperatures are fairly cold at 700mb
however, and this combined with deep moisture will allow lake
induced equilibrium levels to rise to near 10K feet. The favorable
instability and longevity of the setup suggest significant
accumulations are possible east of the lakes. A comparison of the
surface and upper level patterns to our locally developed lake
effect analogs show a good match to significant events for the
Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill/Oswego County. CIPS analogs also
support the idea of a significant event. 3-4 day storm totals may
very well reach several feet east of both Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario from late week into the weekend.
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