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Ralph Wiggum

1.22.17-1.24.17 Noreaster / Coastal Storm

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Looks like a major Noreaster is incoming for Sunday-Tuesday period. I'm more interested in this as a coastal storm and it's impacts along the coast rather than a winter wx event as I will be on vacation in North Wildwood, you guessed it, Sunday-Tuesday. Every single year when I take this time off we are tracking something. It's comical actually. There is a small window for wet snow in higher elevations well N and W of I95, just want to throw that out there. 

I was wondering if MGorse or Ray  or Don might be able to speak to potential impacts along the immediate coast? That is one prolonged E/ENE/NE fetch and if correct, 25-35mph sustained winds with gusts to 50!! I was in NWW during a casual rain back in Sept and it flooded. I have a bad feeling about this one. I am guessing a package from Mt Holly will be in the works over the next day or so as well.

Discuss.

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19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like a major Noreaster is incoming for Sunday-Tuesday period. I'm more interested in this as a coastal storm and it's impacts along the coast rather than a winter wx event as I will be on vacation in North Wildwood, you guessed it, Sunday-Tuesday. Every single year when I take this time off we are tracking something. It's comical actually. There is a small window for wet snow in higher elevations well N and W of I95, just want to throw that out there. 

I was wondering if MGorse or Ray  or Don might be able to speak to potential impacts along the immediate coast? That is one prolonged E/ENE/NE fetch and if correct, 25-35mph sustained winds with gusts to 50!! I was in NWW during a casual rain back in Sept and it flooded. I have a bad feeling about this one. I am guessing a package from Mt Holly will be in the works over the next day or so as well.

Discuss.

I'm more excited for the winds and rain over snow for this storm as well. I wouldn't mind a windy nor'easter :)

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49 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like a major Noreaster is incoming for Sunday-Tuesday period. I'm more interested in this as a coastal storm and it's impacts along the coast rather than a winter wx event as I will be on vacation in North Wildwood, you guessed it, Sunday-Tuesday. Every single year when I take this time off we are tracking something. It's comical actually. There is a small window for wet snow in higher elevations well N and W of I95, just want to throw that out there. 

I was wondering if MGorse or Ray  or Don might be able to speak to potential impacts along the immediate coast? That is one prolonged E/ENE/NE fetch and if correct, 25-35mph sustained winds with gusts to 50!! I was in NWW during a casual rain back in Sept and it flooded. I have a bad feeling about this one. I am guessing a package from Mt Holly will be in the works over the next day or so as well.

Discuss.

Lots of details have to be worked out still, however my office issued the first briefing package this afternoon regarding this coastal storm potential.

http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

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1 hour ago, Quakertown needs snow said:

Such a long duration storm won't help the coast.

 

Nah the coast can take it. As long as the fed keeps writing those $90 million checks. lol. 

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4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like a major Noreaster is incoming for Sunday-Tuesday period. I'm more interested in this as a coastal storm and it's impacts along the coast rather than a winter wx event as I will be on vacation in North Wildwood, you guessed it, Sunday-Tuesday. Every single year when I take this time off we are tracking something. It's comical actually. There is a small window for wet snow in higher elevations well N and W of I95, just want to throw that out there. 

I was wondering if MGorse or Ray  or Don might be able to speak to potential impacts along the immediate coast? That is one prolonged E/ENE/NE fetch and if correct, 25-35mph sustained winds with gusts to 50!! I was in NWW during a casual rain back in Sept and it flooded. I have a bad feeling about this one. I am guessing a package from Mt Holly will be in the works over the next day or so as well.

Discuss.

IMO, we're still a few days away from being highly confident in the impact. Having said that, this is the kind of system that can produce strong winds, especially along the coastline, resulting in beach erosion and some coastal flooding (especially at high tide). The potential for a significant rainfall is quite high and is backed by good agreement among the guidance right now. 

Mount Holly will be on top of the storm, as always. Look for some first-rate discussions in the days ahead. 

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Out of it's 'wheelhouse' but the 12z NAM is rather far West with the storm....not necessarily a true "coastal" by definition tho E winds are sustained at 40kts+ for a period along the NJ coast. NAM stalls the LP over VA for almost 24 hours before drifting E post 81hrs. Would that positioning and stall be better or worse for coastal NJ?

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For Monday's event - JB going with 3" to 6" Well NW of big cities with 1" to 3" from DC to BOS - clearly not a flake on any point and clicks....

Says he sees the modelling but he sees a 2nd taking over on the coast etc. He did have a funny comment that is true - he said the rain/snow line is only a mile away from any location....over your head. Upward motion can drag it on down.

We shall see how far off he is...

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Yesterday, in message #314 in the general winter discussion thread, I posted statistical snowfall probabilities for Philadelphia for the upcoming storm based on a PNA+/AO+/EPO- setup. It now appears that the EPO will actually be positive for the upcoming storm.

I re-ran the numbers for a PNA+/AO+/EPO+ setup that takes into consideration the values of each of the indices. The 12z GFS outcome fits what one would expect from the forecast pattern.

Climatology (1981-2010):
No snow: 41%
< 0.5” snow: 60%
0.5” or more snow: 40%
1.0” or more snow: 23%

Forecast Pattern:
No snow: 41%
< 0.5” snow: Near 100%
0.5” or more snow: Near 0%
1.0” or more snow: Near 0%

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3 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

For Monday's event - JB going with 3" to 6" Well NW of big cities with 1" to 3" from DC to BOS - clearly not a flake on any point and clicks....

Says he sees the modelling but he sees a 2nd taking over on the coast etc. He did have a funny comment that is true - he said the rain/snow line is only a mile away from any location....over your head. Upward motion can drag it on down.

We shall see how far off he is...

This should be in the vendor thread.

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3 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

For Monday's event - JB going with 3" to 6" Well NW of big cities with 1" to 3" from DC to BOS - clearly not a flake on any point and clicks....

 

 

I'm expecting more.   Models always underestimate cold air damming...especially when snowcover is already established.  (most of new england ) 

colder trending expected from now till monday.  freezing rain / sleet  could even put a dent in things. 

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Interesting...

from nws.

Quote
Waves of rain slide along the coast Monday and Monday night as
that low approaches from the south and west. A tight easterly
gradient develops between the high to the north and the
approaching low. Combined with a 65-75 KT LLJ, can expect strong
easterly winds to develop on Monday, with winds potentially
gusting to 50 MPH for much of NJ to the east of I-95, and gusts
potentially reaching 60 MPH along the NJ coast. Wind Advisories
will likely be needed, and there is the possibility for High
Wind Watches/Warnings for sometime on Monday.

 

 

Where would the probably issue the High Wind Watches.

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On 1/20/2017 at 1:39 PM, Bacon Strips said:

 

I'm expecting more.   Models always underestimate cold air damming...especially when snowcover is already established.  (most of new england ) 

colder trending expected from now till monday.  freezing rain / sleet  could even put a dent in things. 

Both you, and JB are going to be very wrong.

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15 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

WOW.....come on folks, ridiculously quiet in here with this pending, very exciting storm...with each run coming in colder, seems at least some decent sleet is becoming more and more likely not far from Philly proper!

Nice early call BaconStrips, If it pans out as now portrayed for Pocs!!!

 

I appreciate it.

and you're very right, people  DO need to wake up in here.  This is a very rare , historic , under-hyped system.    New NAM is even stronger / colder...and heading towards a possible stall, like I mentioned yesterday.

 

their catchin on, but I still expert worse.    

 

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 318 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 NJZ001-PAZ054-055-231000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0002.170123T1800Z-170124T1200Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWTON, JIM THORPE, AND STROUDSBURG 318 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS REGION OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. * TIMING...RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN LOWER MONDAY WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...LOWERING TO AROUND 1/2 MILE OR LESS IN SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

 

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9 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

 

I appreciate it.

and you're very right, people  DO need to wake up in here.  This is a very rare , historic , under-hyped system.    New NAM is even stronger / colder...and heading towards a possible stall, like I mentioned yesterday.

 

their catchin on, but I still expert worse.    

 

 

Exciting...

Love some of the folks in here but spend most of my time elsewhere now for some truly fantastic analysis!!!

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Sounds fun for the northern portion of the Lehigh Valley and Poconos but for the majority here it's a  colder wind driven rain in a month of January that has been full of cold rain. May get some pellets mixed in here at at some juncture just riveting.

Yeah dentist visit for me tomorrow at peak storm this has epicosity written all over it.

 

 

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Nam's been hinting of this possibility since Fri last...We haven't had a storm that has the possibility to hit the SoPo's/NoPo's hard and not further S in years...Seem's like it happened regularily in the late 90's and early 00's  

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3 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

Not so sure!?

No, I am sure.  D.C. To Boston will NOT see 1-3"

AND I would be extremely surprised if anywhere besides the absolute highest areas of the poconos See 3 to even 4".  Yes, is that well west of the cities, sure, but also over 2000' higher in elevation too

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