Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Ens and Ops are indicating a strong Nor'easter with multiple types of precip for the entire New England and adjacent New York region, could be a contendah. Initial indications are for a blue bomb in elevated SNE .dryer in NNE, with the potential for a significant accumulation of winter precip. Ensemble mean qpf is mostly in the 1.5 to 2 inch range with locally less and higher amounts. Determination of precip types is dependant on depth and heighth of the Scooter high building in Eastern Canada and the associated ageostrophic colder low dewpoint air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Last couple runs seemed to be trending a bit cooler. Lets hope that continues!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The NAM is now seeing the high pressure influence...NAM at 84, I know, but why not it has been trending better each run it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 NAM is super cold at 850mb with the high building in from the north. Could be in for quite the surprise come this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just imagine a Patriots Super Bowl berth and a nor'easter at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Frigid NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Just imagine a Patriots Super Bowl berth and a nor'easter at the same time. Yup, and you are a Hail Mary throw and catch from getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 hobbyists wondering why it can snow at high thicknesses and factors of why this has taken a colder turn Take the time to read all of this http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snow2a/snow2a.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Pretty cool Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Nice Ginx. Love me some Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 GFS trended back warmer this run at 18z...block didn't hold quite as well as the 12z run. Such a crucial feature. Still a pretty impressive winter storm though. Prob a lot of sleet and ZR on that setup after snow on the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 One of those whacked out thermal profile issues on GFS on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: One of those whacked out thermal profile issues on GFS Not really... just warmer overall. Seems well within the range of reasonable solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 this run is better for wind than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The once per decade interior storm? Don't toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The once per decade interior storm? Don't toss. Congrats Dendr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 13 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Not really... just warmer overall. Seems well within the range of reasonable solutions. Yeah... a warm solution is definitely still on the table, if not favored at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... a warm solution is definitely still on the table, if not favored at this point why is it favored may I ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... a warm solution is definitely still on the table, if not favored at this point Why would that be favored with that bitter high funneling in cold? That's actually the most unfavorable idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why would that be favored with that bitter high funneling in cold? That's actually the most unfavorable idea Can't wait for weenie tags to come back. The GFS solution is totally reasonable. It's a garbage airmass so we're really going to have to thread the needle. Sure it's possible we get snow in the higher elevations but I don't think big snow is likely right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Can't wait for weenie tags to come back. The GFS solution is totally reasonable. It's a garbage airmass so we're really going to have to thread the needle. Sure it's possible we get snow in the higher elevations but I don't think big snow is likely right now. Gonna tag yourself? You're funneling down cold dry air.. It's not like there's no cold source. I'd certainly take GEFS and EPS over an off hour GFS op run that has thermal issues lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: Can't wait for weenie tags to come back. The GFS solution is totally reasonable. It's a garbage airmass so we're really going to have to thread the needle. Sure it's possible we get snow in the higher elevations but I don't think big snow is likely right now. That is not what the dude said Ryan, he said it would be favored. no reason for this post to Kev he just asked a questions as did I . Sure its a reasonable solution but certainly no solution is favored over the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Gonna tag yourself? You're funneling down cold dry air.. It's not like there's no cold source. I'd certainly take GEFS and EPS over an off hour GFS op run that has thermal issues lol And GEFS and EPS have plenty of spread. I'll take the EPS that has a 75% chance that you don't see 3" of snow. Seems reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why would that be favored with that bitter high funneling in cold? That's actually the most unfavorable idea Just this morning you were saying to forget about this rainer for most and the next storm is the one to watch lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: That is not what the dude said Ryan, he said it would be favored. no reason for this post to Kev he just asked a questions as did I . Sure its a reasonable solution but certainly no solution is favored over the other. That's why I quoted Kevin talking about bitter cold funneling south. Kevin seems to have latched onto one solution though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Gonna tag yourself? You're funneling down cold dry air.. It's not like there's no cold source. I'd certainly take GEFS and EPS over an off hour GFS op run that has thermal issues lol In severe season he definitely needs one, 60 hr NAM has tor risk of 2%!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: And GEFS and EPS have plenty of spread. I'll take the EPS that has a 75% chance that you don't see 3" of snow. Seems reasonable to me. Yea but who is talking about me, certainly the EPS/GEFS solution in ORH county and the Berks is much more reasonable than the 18Z GFS, but you go with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Just this morning you were saying to forget about this rainer for most and the next storm is the one to watch lol. That was until the cold south trend happened all day today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: And GEFS and EPS have plenty of spread. I'll take the EPS that has a 75% chance that you don't see 3" of snow. Seems reasonable to me. The one you put on Twitter had 40%+ chance here to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I'd be interested in the analogs for this, particularly if there are any for late Jan/early Feb. No way the 18z gfs puts most of NNE into plain rain with that track and intensity. Surface winds are cranking out of the N/NNE/NNW throughout the duration of the storm. The GFS surface temps look like this is happening in early April... The antecedent airmass may suck but we have our own cold up here this time of the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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