Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 not for this subforum but the forecasters in PA have their hands full, that snowstorm popped up overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: you see the 80 Knots wind in the GOM on the Euro near the islands? yikes NE is our preferred wind direction to maximize gusts out there, but I just think if the cold wins out the wind will be meh any amount inland from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's a huge and cold layer 850 and below on the soundings and it won't go anywhere soon during the overnight. I'd lean scalping too over ZR in some areas. Yeah - I mean I guess it depends on how warm above that? The NAM and NCAR ensembles are real torches around 800mb... like >+4C which would be ZR but with the GFS and Euro still not showing it I'd lean scalping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: NE is our preferred wind direction to maximize gusts out there, but I just think if the cold wins out the wind will be meh any amount inland from the coast. yea not inland but big big waves, 28 feet plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 scooter where did you get -10 at MHT at 850, Aircraft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: scooter where did you get -10 at MHT at 850, Aircraft? Yeah, AMDAR has a -9.4C at 838 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That's the way I'm leaning too. The real deep warm air doesn't arrive until pretty late tomorrow, even on the NAM. Though the ski resorts might get a good glaze being father aloft to begin with. Yeah I've seen this be wet ZR/IP mix above 3000ft and just scalping the the lower elevations with longer residence time in the cold air for the lower els. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, AMDAR has a -9.4C at 838 mb. meso analysis has 700 at -1 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah - I mean I guess it depends on how warm above that? The NAM and NCAR ensembles are real torches around 800mb... like >+4C which would be ZR but with the GFS and Euro still not showing it I'd lean scalping. I was saying this more like nrn MA or SNH area. Maybe a narrow area gets it? It's a tough call when something like +3C at 800 would mean scalping, but 3.5C a hair below that could melt all cores and you get ZR. Maybe a narrow area further south in MA gets decent accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: meso analysis has 700 at -1 wow Another flight did have -1.8C at 713 mb, so not far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I was saying this more like nrn MA or SNH area. Maybe a narrow area gets it? It's a tough call when something like +3C at 800 would mean scalping, but 3.5C a hair below that could melt all cores and you get ZR. Maybe a narrow area further south in MA gets decent accretion. Yeah if someone does manage decent icing (like over a quarter inch accretion), I think it would be confined to a fairly narrow zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Another flight did have -1.8C at 713 mb, so not far off. Yeah seems like it's modeled well overall. I guess it's more of calling out model bias of warming things up below 900 later on tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 What do you guys mean by scalping? Sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah seems like it's modeled well overall. I guess it's more of calling out model bias of warming things up below 900 later on tonight. I'll throw my money down on models are too quick to warm the low levels, and too slow to warm the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: What do you guys mean by scalping? Sleet? Yes (This is the only question that I'm qualified to answer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: What do you guys mean by scalping? Sleet? Yes. CT Blizz used to have a full head of hair, then got scalped by a sleetfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'll throw my money down on models are too quick to warm the low levels, and too slow to warm the mid levels. Usually how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Upstream radar doesn't look terrible. I think we've exhausted all things to look at until it actually starts precipiating at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 21 minutes ago, mreaves said: Yes (This is the only question that I'm qualified to answer) thanks Quote Yes. CT Blizz used to have a full head of hair, then got scalped by a sleetfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Still amazing at how different short term guidance is...RAP has a monster warm tongue at 800mb by 06z tonight...not even close to snow south of MHT really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: link? and on the Euro sleet might be fleeting wagons north Did euro trend north w mid levels lows And or mid level warmth for KFIT to KLWM for 6z to 12z Also is surface colder or milder 495 12z Tuesday Por favor (at work) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still amazing at how different short term guidance is...RAP has a monster warm tongue at 800mb by 06z tonight...not even close to snow south of MHT really. HRRR/RAP both seem to be solidly in the NAM camp at this stage. HRRR is little toned down from the RAP but the same theme. Seems there would be a little snow on the front end on the HRRR south of MHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I'm ready for the pinging onslaught. I wonder if I can get any snow before it changes over. Temp at the Pit is exactly what it is when I posted about 2 hours ago. 29.9* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, wx2fish said: HRRR/RAP both seem to be solidly in the NAM camp at this stage. HRRR is little toned down from the RAP but the same theme Yeah I'm definitely leaning more and more toward a lot of sleet at this stage. I don't really see a reason to go snowier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 38/36...pressure dropping now after being steady for 12 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Did euro trend north w mid levels lows And or mid level warmth for KFIT to KLWM for 6z to 12z Also is surface colder or milder 495 12z Tuesday Por favor (at work) yes yes colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 NAM cooled slightly at 6z for MHT but still sleety. Looks sleety the whole way through until an epic ML torch by 12z. We'll know if it's busting if it's SN at 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Hot offpresses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 SN past half hour. About half an inch otg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 32/29 as dew continues dropping . On and off light snow / flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.