CT Rain Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 That warm layer is something else on the Euro - should be a scalp fest for the Berks I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Obviously but there had been talk of a prolonged period of sleet in CT.. and his answer was boat. So I'm guessing that means 50 and rain wire to wire while ORH north gets crushed. Enjoy your. 01 ping of a sleet pellet it's the only sleet pellet you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: That warm layer is something else on the Euro - should be a scalp fest for the Berks I think. Wonder what that looks like on the eastern slope as Pittsfield is on the west side right? Wonder if there'd be any cooling from forced parcel ascent into the east side there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Enjoy your. 01 ping of a sleet pellet it's the only sleet pellet you got. Those maps seem a little bit off with their placement. That would indicate a pretty significant ice storm for Pittsfield and North Adams while MPM doesn't really get too much in the way of anything wintery. All ice with not much sleet for N Berks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Anybody locking this thing one way or another is out to lunch. There is still plenty of room to maneuver. That's funny, cuz two days ago people were thinking that any room for positive trending, was running out of time lol. Now two days later, and we're still trending this thing...and positively for a good bunch(not necessarily for CT/SNE peeps), but it's trending nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, WinterWolf said: That's funny, cuz two days ago people were thinking that any room for positive trending, was running out of time lol. Now two days later, and we're still trending this thing...and positively for a good bunch(not necessarily for CT/SNE peeps), but it's trending nonetheless. For interior folks, a degree here or there aloft is going make a huge difference. And locking that at day 3 is a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, WinterWolf said: That's funny, cuz two days ago people were thinking that any room for positive trending, was running out of time lol. Now two days later, and we're still trending this thing...and positively for a good bunch(not necessarily for CT/SNE peeps), but it's trending nonetheless. We may get to even a nowcast situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: For interior folks, a degree here or there aloft is going make a huge difference. And locking that at day 3 is a bad idea. Definitely on precip types, A lot at stake for the ones that are on the colder side of the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: For interior folks, a degree here or there aloft is going make a huge difference. And locking that at day 3 is a bad idea. Oh I totally agree!! But there was talk two days ago about running out of time for changes...and I thought to myself, there's still plenty of time for this thing to change for the better/or worse! Just find it funny that we give up too fast sometimes on systems(and I can be guilty of this myself many times also), and this year the trend with a lot of these systems has been close in...and this one is no exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Your surface temps stay pretty cold, even with the torch aloft eventually. I wouldn't give up hope, that goes 25 miles colder or something and you'll cover the grass with sleet. Lol joy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Can anyone suggest a source for the vertical time cross-section graphics of soundings at any given location (the graphics that OceanStWx and CTRain posted above)? I can't find those on weatherbell or quick internet search, and definitely easier than looking at multiple skewT's at different time points. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 18z Nam ticking colder then the 12z run, Further SE with the s/w down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 How was spread on ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z Nam ticking colder then the 12z run, Further SE with the s/w down south Hopefully comes in less wound up than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 43 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Those maps seem a little bit off with their placement. That would indicate a pretty significant ice storm for Pittsfield and North Adams while MPM doesn't really get too much in the way of anything wintery. All ice with not much sleet for N Berks? Ice is sleet on those maps I believe...so it is a lot of sleet for the Berk's. The one that says freezing rain is probably freezing rain. MPM gets a lot of wintery mix there when you add up all the p-types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Can anyone suggest a source for the vertical time cross-section graphics of soundings at any given location (the graphics that OceanStWx and CTRain posted above)? I can't find those on weatherbell or quick internet search, and definitely easier than looking at multiple skewT's at different time points. TIA They are on WeatherBell for the Euro. Under meteograms and " EPS/ECMWF (more meteograms) " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Hopefully comes in less wound up than 12z. Don't really matter at this point what it has, Just looking at trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The main issue in this area are the 2M temps, as mid levels hold out for a major, major snowfall. I would think that 2m temps will continue to trend downward as we close- May not have to head very far up to get walloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Wow.....euro REALLY slowed this thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The main issue in this area are the 2M temps, as mid levels hold out for a major, major snowfall. I would think that 2m temps will continue to trend downward as we close- May not have to head very far up to get walloped. So Ray if next model runs continue colder, still way too early to "lock in"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The main issue in this area are the 2M temps, as mid levels hold out for a major, major snowfall. I would think that 2m temps will continue to trend downward as we close- May not have to head very far up to get walloped. Looking forward to your blog post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, 512high said: So Ray if next model runs continue colder, still way too early to "lock in"? I'm going to post tonight....I still feel like this is a long shot, but its escalated enough to warrant a post- GF is gonna kill me....ugh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow.....euro REALLY slowed this thing... Is that sort of a negative in terms of the high in E Canada slipping E ahead of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The main issue in this area are the 2M temps, as mid levels hold out for a major, major snowfall. I would think that 2m temps will continue to trend downward as we close- May not have to head very far up to get walloped. Mid levels are very warm and pretty deep, cooling low levels will make for sleet and frzrn. Not many heavy snowstorms with a strongly negative tilted ULL to our SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm going to post tonight....I still feel like this is a long shot, but its escalated enough to warrant a post- GF is gonna kill me....ugh lol we wait..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Mid levels are very warm and pretty deep, cooling low levels will make for sleet and frzrn. Not many heavy snowstorms with a strongly negative tilted ULL to our SW My 850's are below freezing for most of the event. H7 is, too.....maybe H8 is the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My 850's are below freezing for most of the event. H7 is, too.....maybe H8 is the issue. That's where I'm seeing the bulk of the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: That's where I'm seeing the bulk of the warmth. Figured....can't see that level. What is my area at 66-72 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Figured....can't see that level. What is my area at 66-72 hrs? Between 0-1C on the Euro, but it comes in like a wall. Pretty isothermal from 850 to 700 mb. GFS gives you a skinny layer of like 0.5C maybe a hair below 800 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Between 0-1C on the Euro, but it comes in like a wall. Pretty isothermal from 850 to 700 mb. GFS gives you a skinny layer of like 0.5C maybe a hair below 800 mb. Small adjustment would keep that south for the critical period in question....Steve is talking like it's +6C. Look, I don't think I'm going to see much snow, but it looks more interesting than it did last night.....trend will probably reverse again, but is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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