OceanStWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Fwiw, Oceanwx's been putting up the CIPs which have been getting over 50% on the ice storm look... just mentioning - The probabilities went way down with the 12z run. Not surprising given how warm the GFS was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: Would love to give this to Kevin. I have no use for ZR. Is it all rain Pike south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: The probabilities went way down with the 12z run. Not surprising given how warm the GFS was. yeah, you'd think it would - yeah. Isn't that interesting though? Just how so acutely and abruptly the whole thing changed complexion like that. huh weird... This thing spend 0 time hedging against the previous trend, which was pretty solid all things considering. I just gotta think the fact that it is just coming onboard out west - it's gotta be related. fascinating ... infuriating for winter weather enthusiasts, but fascinating nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: yeah, you'd think it would - yeah. Isn't that interesting though? Just how so acutely and abruptly the whole thing changed complexion like that. huh weird... This thing spend 0 time hedging against the previous trend, which was pretty solid all things considering. I just gotta think the fact that it is just coming onboard out west - it's gotta be related. fascinating ... infuriating for winter weather enthusiasts, but fascinating nonetheless. I would say we're still probably a good 24 hours at least before the real important wave is onshore out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Let's salvage this with some different sort of nerdliness ... http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast ... Poll: each category below gets a 5 % plus or minus, save for number 1 - 1 ..beween 0 and 10% correction 2 ..10% correction 3 ..25 % correction 4 ..50 % correction 5 ..75 % correction 6 ...100% correction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Amazing how fast this fell apart. In the span of 6 hours went from widespread winter storm to eventually raining to Maine. Warm west trends not done yet. Once these start those north and west shifts they don't stop. Maybe that helps us if this can bomb over Eastern Canada for the storm on the 28th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I would say we're still probably a good 24 hours at least before the real important wave is onshore out west. Perhaps ... but (just imho) it looked to me like it was cohesive but the models were smearing as it moved across the southern tier.. . Who knows - it's also puzzling how the NAM was stronger with the ridge N (unlike the other models that move the ridge off...sort of different on that detail) yet, was warmer with the 850s... and llv cold. Seems like a lot of weirdly timed nuances ganged up on this all at once from different directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Amazing how fast this fell apart. In the span of 6 hours went from widespread winter storm to eventually raining to Maine. Warm west trends not done yet. Once these start those north and west shifts they don't stop. Maybe that helps us if this can bomb over Eastern Canada for the storm on the 28th We didn't have a wide spread winter storm 6 hours ago...or even 00z last night...the possibility was there, but really the closest thing we had on a legit model was probably yesterday's 12z Euro which did have a lot of sleet, snow and ice over interior SNE. So I wouldn't overstate how wintry it was even at its peak. That said, there's still a possibility this comes back cold again...we're still a good 3+ days out and we've seen these Quebec highs sort of impose a "model shock" within about 48-60 hours in past events...so who knows. The convoluted nature of the southern stream will likely change too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We didn't have a wide spread winter storm 6 hours ago...or even 00z last night...the possibility was there, but really the closest thing we had on a legit model was probably yesterday's 12z Euro which did have a lot of sleet, snow and ice over interior SNE. So I wouldn't overstate how wintry it was even at its peak. That said, there's still a possibility this comes back cold again...we're still a good 3+ days out and we've seen these Quebec highs sort of impose a "model shock" within about 48-60 hours in past events...so who knows. The convoluted nature of the southern stream will likely change too. We have consensus now. It's not like they're going to see something and bring it back to a wintry system like they had yesterday and last night. Hopefully the folks that enjoy 1-2" of wind driven 40 degree rain in the dead of winter get out and take advantage of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Amazing how fast this fell apart. In the span of 6 hours went from widespread winter storm to eventually raining to Maine. Warm west trends not done yet. Once these start those north and west shifts they don't stop. Maybe that helps us if this can bomb over Eastern Canada for the storm on the 28th I'll hold out hope. Last week the talk was about how it was going to rain on weds and be near 50F here and 40s all week. Never happened. Net gain on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We have consensus now. It's not like they're going to see something and bring it back to a wintry system like they had yesterday and last night. Hopefully the folks that enjoy 1-2" of wind driven 40 degree rain in the dead of winter get out and take advantage of it We don't really have a tight consensus yet....some guidance is further east and some are tucked pretty close. The only common theme was that they all warmed so they all lessened the amount of frozen precip significantly for SNE...which isn't a surprise. We typically see the trend match on a particular suite...so it might seem like a consensus has formed. If 00z cools, then we're back to probably more frozen and that will feel like the consensus to follow. We don't know yet. The warmer trend at 12z was not a good sign since as you get closer, you are running out of time to reverse trends, but that doesn't mean it doesn't happen. We saw it happen in the 12/29 event...it warmed a bit and then in the final day or two it tried to cool again which allowed for parts of the interior to see decent snows and allowed areas near the coast in Maine to see a huge snowstorm rather than rain. Even with today's warmer trends, I'm still a bit leery of icing over parts of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: if interested... I commented on that in the Model Mayhem thread recently - Thank you Tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We don't really have a tight consensus yet....some guidance is further east and some are tucked pretty close. The only common theme was that they all warmed so they all lessened the amount of frozen precip significantly for SNE...which isn't a surprise. We typically see the trend match on a particular suite...so it might seem like a consensus has formed. If 00z cools, then we're back to probably more frozen and that will feel like the consensus to follow. We don't know yet. The warmer trend at 12z was not a good sign since as you get closer, you are running out of time to reverse trends, but that doesn't mean it doesn't happen. We saw it happen in the 12/29 event...it warmed a bit and then in the final day or two it tried to cool again which allowed for parts of the interior to see decent snows and allowed areas near the coast in Maine to see a huge snowstorm rather than rain. Even with today's warmer trends, I'm still a bit leery of icing over parts of the interior. may have to throttle back on that too, if that ridge debacle continues... I'm wondering if it really is just a game of bad timing wrt to the block/surface anticyclone versus the impulse coming of the Pacific and translating the deep south? Like...that sniffs stronger now, AND the high ..completely unrelated reason... decides to fail cold delivery. Sort of converging on a warm look overall.. I don't see off hand why the high can't come back. Also, this has been mentioned but ... with that odd-ball trajectory coming off the Pacific and barreling across the deep south in just like ...24 to 30 hours, we may have equally narrowed the number of cycles we can fiddle around with error handling. Like that whole oddity of quick evolution may mean final adjusting more so than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Pretty big ice signal after some front end snow/sleet Save me, sleetfest! (Worked before in the foothills...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: Save me, sleetfest! (Worked before in the foothills...) Yeah don't know if the message here about the Euro was muddled by those not in the game but this is certainly a concern for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Even for them it goes to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Even for them it goes to rain Drizzle them refreeze on the Euro, pretty typical Maine NH Ice storm progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Amazing how fast this fell apart. In the span of 6 hours went from widespread winter storm to eventually raining to Maine. Warm west trends not done yet. Once these start those north and west shifts they don't stop. Maybe that helps us if this can bomb over Eastern Canada for the storm on the 28th lol you came full circle in 24 hours. Yesterday morning telling everyone to forget this one and focus on the 28th, then going full winter storm yesterday afternoon and last evening when TauntonBlizzard said to favor a warmer solution, now back to watching the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Drizzle them refreeze on the Euro, pretty typical Maine NH Ice storm progression. I'm not convinced they'd ever go to rain anyway. Really hard to do once the CAD gets established if the sfc track isn't basically up their fanny or to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 GFS has -5 925 hPa U wind anomaly along south coast and LI. Fairly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: lol you came full circle in 24 hours. Yesterday morning telling everyone to forget this one and focus on the 28th, then going full winter storm yesterday afternoon and last evening when TauntonBlizzard said to favor a warmer solution, now back to watching the 28th. That's how the last 24 hours went on the models. I got sucked in and for that I'm sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: That's how the last 24 hours went on the models. I got sucked in and for that I'm sorry It is a bummer. Maybe devils advocate might have worked? You had the right idea yesterday morning though. It could still tick back colder but we will need some large scale changes to get a more widespread snow event. Someone will get crushed with ice and mixed precip though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: GFS has -5 925 hPa U wind anomaly along south coast and LI. Fairly impressive. Qpf distribution on the Euro again has that 92 look, would be nice to see if the next 24 hrs we see after the systems and pieces evolve to a stronger block. Good thing tides are low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Qpf distribution on the Euro again has that 92 look, would be nice to see if the next 24 hrs we see after the systems and pieces evolve to a stronger block. Good thing tides are low. Yep, don't need any major coastal flooding, thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It is a bummer. Maybe devils advocate might have worked? You had the right idea yesterday morning though. It could still tick back colder but we will need some large scale changes to get a more widespread snow event. Someone will get crushed with ice and mixed precip though. It'snot going to trend back. Back in my weenie days I would believe that. That is not going to happen..I don't think the NW trend is done yet TBH. This probably will be a big mix/ice event for your area there in N VT. As has been the case all winter, most of us will have to live vicariously thru any pictures you revel in posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 18z run seems stronger with mechanics in the SW so far... not sure what it will mean if anything, but the mid level velocities are stronger and the trough is slightly deeper in the geometry - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It'snot going to trend back. Back in my weenie days I would believe that. That is not going to happen..I don't think the NW trend is done yet TBH. This probably will be a big mix/ice event for your area there in N VT. As has been the case all winter, most of us will have to live vicariously thru any pictures you revel in posting. It's going to be tight up here...we may get slightly better mid-level temps but the foothills of Maine into Dendrites area will lock the surface cold better. I really have no use for an ice storm at the ski area but sleet would work. Long way to go though. I think the slower it is the worse it is for everyone's hopes of winter weather. The worst part is we finally get a system with a massive circulation that could've spread the goods all over the northeast from like Buffalo to Bangor if we had some normal January cold. Not often you get these lows with significant precip like 400 miles away from the actual low pressure center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's going to be tight up here...we may get slightly better mid-level temps but the foothills of Maine into Dendrites area will lock the surface cold better. I really have no use for an ice storm at the ski area but sleet would work. Long way to go though. I think the slower it is the worse it is for everyone's hopes of winter weather. The worst part is we finally get a system with a massive circulation that could've spread the goods all over the northeast from like Buffalo to Bangor if we had some normal January cold. Not often you get these lows with significant precip like 400 miles away from the actual low pressure center. And by all accounts I've read..we only have a about a 2 week window in Feb before the ridge retrogrades and early spring arrives. Hopefully that's wrong, but after this ****show of a month ..I'm hopeful SNE can see at least some snow before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's going to be tight up here...we may get slightly better mid-level temps but the foothills of Maine into Dendrites area will lock the surface cold better. I really have no use for an ice storm at the ski area but sleet would work. Long way to go though. I think the slower it is the worse it is for everyone's hopes of winter weather. The worst part is we finally get a system with a massive circulation that could've spread the goods all over the northeast from like Buffalo to Bangor if we had some normal January cold. Not often you get these lows with significant precip like 400 miles away from the actual low pressure center. That is my thought too. Sleetfest 2017 would be an ok, if not terribly exciting, consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 45 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol you came full circle in 24 hours. Yesterday morning telling everyone to forget this one and focus on the 28th, then going full winter storm yesterday afternoon and last evening when TauntonBlizzard said to favor a warmer solution, now back to watching the 28th. That's why you can't take anything he says seriously...ever. Flip Flop, Flip Flop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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